Preview: Stanford heads to Chapel Hill to battle North Carolina
On Saturday at 1:30 PM PT on The CW, Stanford football will take on the North Carolina Tarheels on the road at Chapel Hill. Stanford comes in at 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the ACC while North Carolina comes in at 3-5 overall and 1-3 in the ACC.
Last time out: Last week, Stanford fell to Pittsburgh at home by a final score of 35-20. Stanford redshirt freshman quarterback Elijah Brown led the Cardinal to a touchdown on the final drive of the game.
RECAP: Stanford stumbles against Pittsburgh
On Stanford: The big news for the Cardinal is the announcement of Elijah Brown being named the starting quarterback on Monday. Brown put together a solid final drive against Pittsburgh and that combined with Ben Gulbranson’s struggles made Stanford decide to make a switch.
READ: Elijah Brown named the starting QB for Stanford
On the injury front, Stanford will have safety Jay Green, cornerback Collin Wright, and running back Micah Ford available. Having those three guys back will be huge for Stanford. Check out the full availability report here.
On North Carolina: Year one of the Bill Belichick era hasn’t gone great for the Tarheels. It’s a reminder that success in the NFL doesn’t always equal success in college and vice versa. Of course, even with that being said, Belichick is such a legend of the game that you have to respect the Tarheels if for no other reason than because he’s their head coach. That simple.
The Tarheels are coming off their first win of ACC play in which they defeated Syracuse 27-10 last week. They also have a couple of narrow losses to No. 12 Virginia (16-17 OT) and Cal (18-21), so they could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1 in the ACC. As a team, they average 19.4 points per game while allowing 22.1 points per game. Their defense ranks 50th in points allowed, but their offense ranks 122nd in points scored. So it’s the offense that really is holding them back.
The Tarheels are led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Gio Lopez, who has gone 99-157 for six touchdowns and five interceptions for a 123.9 passer rating. The top receiver on this Tarheels team is sophomore wide out Jordan Shipp, who has 35 receptions for 384 yards and three touchdowns. He is by far and away the most targeted receiver on the team as nobody else has more than 14 receptions. The Tarheels really rely on him to deliver.
The other main weapon Lopez has to rely on is freshman running back Demon June, who has 64 carries for 416 yards and two touchdowns. June also has 12 receptions for 117 yards and one touchdown, so he’s getting work done in the receiving game as well.
On defense, sophomore linebacker Khmori House is leading the way in total tackles with 49 (27 solo) to go along with 1.5 tackles for loss. Junior defensive lineman Melkart Abou-Jaoude is leading the way in sacks and tackles for loss with 7.5 tackles for loss and 7.0 sacks to go along with 25 total tackles (16 solo). Senior linebacker Andrew Simpson has 6.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks to go along with 39 total tackles (20) solo while redshirt sophomore linebacker Tyler Thompson (4.5 sacks) and 6th year senior defensive end Smith Vilbert (4.0 sacks) are also bringing the pressure.
On special teams, senior kicker Rece Verhoff is 10-12 on his field goals while being a perfect 15-15 on extra points. He’s having a solid season.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is give Elijah Brown protection. They’re making some changes to the offensive line rotation (read about that on the message boards), so we’ll see if that makes a difference. If Brown gets the time he needs, that more than anything could make the difference.
Secondly, Stanford needs running backs Micah Ford and Cole Tabb to combine for 100+ yards. With Ford back, Stanford should look to rush for 100+ yards on the day as a team. If they are able to do that, especially given how well Tabb has shown he can run, that would take a lot of pressure off Brown and go a long way towards securing a victory.
Third, Stanford needs to win the turnover battle. Both teams are vulnerable in this department. I mean heck, a fumbled ball in the end zone by the Tarheels resulted in a touchback at Cal instead of a touchdown. Turnovers matter. If Stanford plays the cleaner game in terms of taking care of the ball, that would be huge.
Finally, this game likely comes down to red zone execution. Stanford’s red zone play has actually been solid this year, especially on defense. If Stanford’s defense can do their thing while also finding success on the other end, they should be in a good spot. Especially given the fact that North Carolina has scored 20+ points only three times this season.
Prediction: Perhaps I’ll get it wrong again this week given I picked Stanford to beat Pitt last week and that didn’t happen, but since this is on the road, I’ll give North Carolina a slight edge: North Carolina 24 Stanford 21.
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