Preview: Stanford heads to Dallas to battle SMU
On Saturday at 9:00 AM PT on The CW, Stanford football will take on the SMU Mustangs on the road in Dallas, Texas. Stanford comes in at 2-3 overall and 1-1 in the ACC while SMU comes in at 3-2 overall and 1-0 in the ACC.
Last time out: Stanford defeated San Jose State 30-29 on Saturday, September 27th. Quarterback Ben Gulbranson led the game-winning drive that was capped off by a one-yard rushing touchdown by running back Sedrick Irvin Jr.
RECAP: Stanford sneaks past San Jose State
By the numbers: Breaking down Stanford’s win over San Jose State
On SMU: The Mustangs have an electric offense, averaging 34.0 points per game, which ranks 44th in the nation. Their defense ranks 75th in the nation with 24.8 points allowed per game, so they are definitely more of an offensive team. In their most recent outing last week, they defeated Syracuse 31-18 at home. SMU led 24-3 entering the 4th quarter, so they let their foot off the gas a bit at the end. Overall a dominant win.
The Mustangs are led by redshirt junior quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has thrown for 1411 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 71.4% of his passes for a 164.2 passing efficiency rating. After averaging 25.3 rushing yards per game last season, Jennings is averaging just 4.8 rushing yards per game, suggesting that he is making more of an effort to stay in the pocket. His ability to run is definitely there and that is something that Stanford better watch out for.
Senior running back TJ Harden is leading the way in the backfield for the Mustangs, rushing for 376 yards and five touchdowns for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. While he has only five receptions for 24 yards this year, he was a real threat in the receiving game last year at UCLA with 40 receptions for 368 yards, so he can do more than just take handoffs.
The top receiver for the Mustangs is fifth year senior wide receiver Romello Brinson, who has 26 receptions for 436 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been a fantastic weapon for them all season long and is Jennings’ favorite target. The Mustangs also have a pair of sound tight ends in fifth year senior Matthew Hibner (13 receptions, 104 yards, one touchdown) and senior RJ Maryland (12 receptions, 116 yards, two touchdowns). The bottom line is Jennings has a lot of different options he can throw to and none of those guys were listed on the injury report ahead of the game, so they should be all good to go.
On defense, fifth year senior safety Isaiah Nwokobia is leading the way with 37 combined tackles (22 solo) to go along with 1.5 tackles for loss and one interception. Senior safety Ahmaad Moses and redshirt junior cornerback Jaelyn Davis-Robinson both have two interceptions on the season to lead the way in that department while senior defensive end Cam Robertson’s 5.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks makes him their top disrupter in the backfield.
On special teams, the Mustangs have a couple of different options at kicker. Freshman Sam Keltner and senior Collin Rogers. Keltner is 2-5 on his field goals while Rogers is 1-4. Rogers went 1-4 in their 48-45 double overtime loss to Baylor back on September 6th and he hasn’t seen the field since as Keltner has taken over kicking duties from there.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is force SMU to kick as many field goals as possible and keep them out of the end zone. SMU has struggled with their field goal kicking this year and as Stanford saw first-hand against San Jose State, having the more sure-footed kicker can make all the difference. If Stanford wins the kicking battle and is able to force SMU into missing a couple of field goals, maybe they make this interesting.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is contain Kevin Jennings. He’s the engine that makes this SMU team go. If they want to force field goals, it’s going to have to start with containing Jennings, keeping him in the pocket, and forcing others to beat them. With inside linebacker Matt Rose missing the first half due to his targeting call against San Jose State, others are going to have to really step up until he returns.
Third, Stanford needs to make sure they give Ben Gulbranson enough protection. When gets time, he is able to make sound throws and good decisions. Hence his 444 passing yards against San Jose State. If they can give him the protection he needs, they should have an opportunity to win this game.
Fourth, Stanford is 2-0 in games when tight end Sam Roush scores a touchdown and 0-3 in games when he doesn’t. I don’t think that stat is a coincidence. Stanford has to make sure they get him going and if possible, get him in the end zone. If he scores in this game, Stanford should have a chance to pull off the upset.
Finally, Stanford needs to win the turnover battle. If Stanford is able to win the turnover battle, that should go a long way towards winning the game. Putting a good amount of pressure on Jennings should help with that as should making sure Gulbranson is well protected. SMU loves to force turnovers, so this more than anything is the area to look for.
Prediction: I got SMU winning 34-17. They’re at home and on paper, they’re simply the better team. They have a lot of weapons and are much better than both Boston College and San Jose State. If Stanford is able to keep this within 10 points, I think that would be a legit moral victory even though I know Stanford of course will only be satisfied if they come out with the win.
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