Preview: Stanford welcomes Cal to The Farm for 128th Big Game
On Saturday, November 22nd at 4:30 PM PT on ACC Network, Stanford football will welcome Cal to The Farm for the 128th Big Game. Stanford comes in at 3-7 overall and 2-5 in the ACC while Cal comes in at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the ACC.
Last time out: Stanford is coming off a bye week in which they fell to North Carolina on the road by a final score of 20-15. Stanford redshirt freshman quarterback Elijah Brown made his first start of the season, going 27-39 for 284 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
RECAP: Stanford falls to UNC at Chapel Hill
Weekly injury report: Probably the biggest news when looking at the injury report for Stanford is the return of offensive lineman Simione Pale. He’s a huge part of what they do up front and so to have him back anchoring the line is big time. And then having offensive lineman Kahlil House, safety Jay Green, cornerback Collin Wright, outside linebacker Teva Tafiti, and safety Darrius Davis listed as probable as well is huge. Hopefully outside linebacker Wilfredo Aybar will be a go as well as he was listed as questionable on Thursday.
UPDATE: Aybar has been downgraded to out. Wright is still listed as probable while all the rest of the guys I mentioned are no longer on the injury report at all, which means they are a go for sure. Wright being probable we can assume will be a go as well. So that’s the latest on that front.
One more note on Pale: He can play against Cal and Notre Dame and still preserve his redshirt. So that’s a huge factor in this. Once again, huge to have him back.
To touch quickly on Cal, they look to be pretty healthy just eyeballing the injury report. So they’re pretty much gonna be at full strength. Check out the full injury report here.
On Cal: The Golden Bears have had a bit of an up and down season. They started 3-0 with wins over Oregon State, Texas Southern, and Minnesota before getting shutout 34-0 at San Diego State. The win over Oregon State was on the road. The Bears have since not been able to win back to back games. After losing to Duke at home, they defeated North Carolina at home. They then lost to Virginia Tech on the road and Virginia at home before hitting the road to defeat No. 14 Louisville on the road. The Louisville win was huge though now that Louisville has fallen out of the Top 25, it’s not looking to be as big of a win as it was.
On the season, the Bears are averaging 25.0 points per game while allowing 25.2 points per game. That makes their offense rank 83rd out of 136 FBS teams in scoring while their defense is 74th in FBS in points allowed. So their defense is slightly better than their offense.
The Bears have a fantastic true freshman quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele who has gone 224-364 for 2518 yards, 13 touchdowns, and nine interceptions for a 126.5 passing efficiency rating. Sagapolutele won the starting job over Ohio State transfer Devin Brown, who was hoping to finally get a chance to be a starting quarterback. While he’s had his freshman moments, on the whole, Sagapolutele has lived up to the hype. He has a strong arm, throws with accuracy, and plays with great poise.
The top target for Sagapolutele is senior wide receiver Jacob De Jesus, who has 73 receptions for 699 yards and four touchdowns after transferring in from UNLV. De Jesus had 16 receptions for 158 yards and one touchdown at Louisville, which was his most productive game of the season. Senior wide receiver Trond Grizzell has been balling out as well with 36 receptions for 565 yards and one touchdown while sophomore tight end Mason Mini has been a legit threat in the red zone with 34 receptions for 382 yards and four touchdowns.
The top running back for the Bears is junior Kendrick Raphael, a transfer from NC State. Raphael has rushed for 695 yards and 11 touchdowns on 167 carries for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Raphael also has 22 receptions for 166 yards and one touchdown, making him a legit receiving target as well.
The leading tackler for the Bears is junior linebacker Cade Uluave, who has 81 total tackles (31 solo), 10.5 tackles for loss, and 3.0 sacks. He is the heart and soul of their defense, doing a great job of making plays in the backfield and getting after the quarterback.
Junior linebacker TJ Bush, a transfer from Liberty, has been making plays in the backfield as well with 31 total tackles (12 solo), 8.5 tackles for loss, and 5.0 sacks. Freshman linebacker Luke Ferrelli and junior defensive back Cam Sidney also have 5.0 tackles for loss. The Bears have several guys who are capable of wreaking havoc in the backfield.
The top ball-hawk for the Bears is senior defensive back Hezekiah Masses, a transfer from Florida International. Masses has five interceptions as well as 11 pass deflections. He’s been fantastic in coverage and been the top player in the Bears’ secondary.
On special teams, junior kicker Chase Meyer has gone 29-29 on extra points while going 8-11 for a 72.7% field goal percentage. Meyer’s longest field of the season is 45 yards while his career long is 47 yards. He’s been a solid kicker this year and been a pretty reliable leg for the Bears.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is contain Sagapolutele. He’s the engine that makes this Bears team go. He’s very dangerous in the pocket when he gets time to throw, but he hasn’t done much with his legs as he averages -2.4 yards per attempt. If you put pressure on him and don’t allow him to get the time he needs to throw, you can fluster him. Stanford’s pass rush is going to have to be on point.
Secondly, Stanford needs to get their ground game going. Cal gives up 155.7 rushing yards per game, which makes their run defense pretty vulnerable. If running backs Micah Ford and Cole Tabb can combine for 150+ yards, that would really help take pressure off Elijah Brown and give Stanford the kind of offensive attack they are looking for.
Third, Stanford’s red zone defense needs to keep doing its thing. They’ve been great at getting stops and forcing field goals all season long. If they can win the battle in the red zone against Cal’s offense, that could make the difference in the game.
Finally, Elijah Brown needs to get protection. He was sacked nine times at North Carolina. Stanford cannot expect to win this game if Brown isn’t getting protected. While part of the solution can be to run the ball more, they’re gonna have to throw the ball some times and when they do, he’s gonna have to get protection. If he does, that’ll give guys like wide receivers CJ Williams and Caden High as well tight end Sam Roush the chance to get rolling. That’s why the return of offensive lineman Simione Pale is so significant.
Prediction: As I wrote earlier, home field advantage doesn’t matter in Big Game. It doesn’t matter if it’s at Cal and it doesn’t matter if it’s at Stanford. That said, for the first time since I’ve covered Stanford, I’m gonna pick the Cardinal to find a way to reclaim the Axe. I think their red zone defense and pass rush combined with their run game will make the difference. 27-24 Cardinal.
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