Predicting Minnesota's 2025 season game-by-game
The 2025 college football season is officially here, and the Minnesota Golden Gophers kick things off in just a few days against the Buffalo Bulls.
The Golden Gophers enter 2025 looking to make a bowl game for a fifth straight season, a mark that would tie a program record. With a new quarterback under center, plenty of transfers on both sides of the ball, and fresh faces on the coaching staff, there’s no shortage of questions early on.
And the schedule isn’t making it any easier. The Gophers will face the defending Big Ten and national champions, while also setting up for a trio of key rivalry matchups against Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
So what’s in store for 2025? Here are my official season predictions for Minnesota
Week 1: vs Buffalo
Minnesota starts the 2025 season off this Thursday against Buffalo. The Bulls are coming off a strong 9-4 campaign in 2024 and look primed to make noise in the MAC this season. While Pete Lembo’s squad could give the Gophers some fits early on, talent will win out in this one. We expect the Gophers to cruise to victory, perhaps after a slower start.
Prediction: 34-13 Minnesota
Record: 1-0
Week 2: vs Northwestern State
The challenge will be a bit easier for the Golden Gophers in week two as they take on Northwestern State. The Demons are coming off a 0-12 campaign in 2024, which included a pair of losses to FBS opponents in Tulsa (62-28) and South Alabama (87-10). This should be an improved team in 2025, or one would hope, but the talent gap is still massive, and this one should never really be in any doubt. Great opportunity for the Gophers to get their depth players and younger talent plenty of snaps. The starters shouldn’t see the field after halftime. The most points the Gophers have ever put up in the P.J. Fleck era is 62 against Western Illinois in 2022. That number could be eclipsed against Northwestern State
Prediction: 58-6 Minnesota
Record: 2-0
Week 3: at Cal
Cal is coming off a decent 2024 season, but saw a ton of talent leave for the transfer portal this offseason, leaving Justin Wilcox likely fighting for his job this season. The Bears will be starting a freshman quarterback this season in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, which could lead to its own challenges as well. The Golden Bears start on the road against Oregon State in week one before getting a tune-up game against Texas Southern in week two.
Cal will still be a formidable opponent for the Gophers, and this game reminds me a lot of last year’s trip to UCLA, both in opponent quality and, of course, the travel. This will be Drake Lindsey’s first time starting on the road, but it won’t be in the most hostile of environments, as Cal is just 27-20 at home under head coach Wilcox. I like the Gophers to win this game.
Prediction: 24-17 California
Record: 3-0
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: vs Rutgers
The Gophers return home in week four, and also making a return to Minneapolis will be Rutgers starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The Scarlet Knights got the best of the Gophers last fall, and that will surely be on many players’ minds in preparation for this one.
The good news for the Gophers is that there will be a bye week before this matchup, so they’ll be well rested heading into conference play and perhaps serve as a chance to get healthy. Under Fleck, the Gophers are 11-6 when coming off a bye and 17-4 when having the rest advantage. That being said, the Scarlet Knights do a good job of playing with a rest disadvantage under Greg Schiano, collecting a 6-2 record since 2020.
That being said, we expect the home crowd to be a little extra energetic in this one, and the Gophers to get revenge for last year’s setback.
Prediction: 23-16 Minnesota
Record: 4-0 (1-0)
Week 6: at Ohio State
Now for the biggest test of the season for the Golden Gophers. In week six, they’ll head to the Horseshoe to take on the defending national champions, the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes did lose a ton of talent over the offseason, but are unlikely to miss too much of a beat in 2025. Expect Ryan Day’s program to once again be among the best in the country and compete for the College Football Playoffs.
The Golden Gophers have lost 13 straight to Ohio State, and all-time have just won three times in their 28 trips to Columbus. We don’t expect that to change this season. This game for us will be more about seeing how Minnesota stands up against Ohio State’s level of talent and speed. If the Gophers can be competitive in this game, that could go a long way throughout the rest of the season.
Prediction: 41-13 Ohio State
Record: 4-1 (1-1)
Week 7: vs Purdue
After a trip to Ohio State, the Gophers will welcome the Purdue Boilermakers and their new head coach, Barry Odom, to Huntington Bank Stadium. The Boilermakers have been among the worst teams in the Power Four each of the last two seasons. While Odom is bringing new energy to the program, the Boilermakers are still likely a year or two away from truly getting back to being competitive.
Prediction: 27-17 Minnesota
Record: 5-1 (2-1)
Week 8: vs Nebraska
This will be an interesting matchup as the Gophers will have just five days of full rest before this Friday night matchup. On top of that, the Cornhuskers’ schedule this season is extremely favorable. If Dylan Raiola takes the next step, Matt Rhule’s program could very well go 10-2 in 2025. But to do so, they’ll have to avoid, well being the Nebraska program we’ve grown to know over the last decade.
That being said, the Huskers will be led by Raiola now in his second season, and this offseason, Rhule and company attacked the transfer portal, ensuring that the former four-star prospect has plenty of talent at his disposal. The Gophers have had great success under P.J. Fleck against Nebraska as well, with a 6-1 record, but this will be by far the best Huskers team the Gophers have faced on paper. I think the Gophers could win this game, but I’m not going to, and in a teaser of our Big Ten predictions coming later this week, I have the Huskers getting off to an 8-0 start.
Prediction: 20-17 Nebraska
Record: 5-2 (2-2)
Week 9: at Iowa
After a tough matchup against Iowa in week eight, the Gophers will then head to Kinnick Stadium. Minnesota was able to steal a win from the Hawkeyes the last time they made their way to Iowa City in one of the uglier games in recent memory, but generally, the Hawkeyes have dominated the series at Kinnick Stadium under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
The Gophers at this point should be well tested, so there’s no concern there. But considering the field and the crowd, this could be the most intimidating place the Gophers play in 2025, especially for Drake Lindsey as a first-year starter. How he handles the Iowa fans and that stadium is going to determine a lot of how this game goes.
Ultimately, I have the Gophers dropping a second straight, and knowing these two teams, it could be a funky score.
Prediction: 16-14 Iowa
Record: 5-3 (2-3)
Week 10: vs Michigan State
After escaping Kinnick Stadium, the Gophers will return to Huntington Bank Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans are entering year two of the Jonathan Smith era. There are several people I highly respect who believe Michigan State is in for a nice jump from last year, but I just don’t see it happening in 2025. There’s a lot to work with, but the schedule is going to be on the tougher side for the Spartans, which I think could add up over the course of the season. Additionally, while Aidan Chiles is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the nation, I need to see him take that step forward to truly believe. Notably, this game for the Spartans is in a terrible spot.
October 18 – at Indiana
October 25 – vs Michigan
November 1 – at Minnesota
November 15 – vs Penn State
That’s not to mention they also have a road trip to Nebraska and a home battle against UCLA in the weeks before Indiana. We’ll learn a lot about the Spartans early on this season, but I think the “body blow effect” could add up quite a bit in this one for Jonatahn Smith’s team, even if the Spartans get off to a good start in 2025
Prediction: 27-20 Minnesota
Record: 6-3 (3-3)
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: at Oregon
After their second bye week of the season, the Gophers will travel west for another Friday night showdown. This time against the Oregon Ducks. Oregon doesn’t have Dillon Gabriel at quarterback this fall, but it will still be one of the best teams in the Big Ten and the country this fall, don’t doubt about that.
While I think generally, the way Washington, USC, and UCLA have been built the last few seasons isn’t a great recipe for success in the Big Ten, Dan Lanning has his team in the mold of a Big Ten and SEC before the Ducks joining the Big Ten, which I believe was a big reason for their success last season and while they’ll continue to be a power in the conference.
Autzen Stadium is an incredibly tough place to play as well, and as long as Dante Moore can be a capable quarterback, I have a hard time seeing the Ducks losing this game.
Prediction: 42-17 Oregon
Record: 6-4 (3-4)
Week 13: at Northwestern
Technically a road game, this matchup will take place at Wrigley Field in Chicago, which will be a cool spectacle. The Wildcats had a massively disappointing 2024 season after a surprise 2023 campaign under Davis Braun.
This offseason, the Wildcats brought in SMU transfer Preston Stone, and there is a lot of hope that the former four-star prospect will be just what the Cats need to get back on a winning track. That being said, I still have plenty of questions about the skill position players around Stone, and the defense also left plenty to be desired in 2024 as well, allowing over 26 points per game.
With all that being said, who knows what the weather will be like in late November in Chicago? Will there be snow? How hard is the wind blowing? There are so many factors that could ultimately make this game a little chaotic. Either way, sunny, snowing, cold, or unseasonably warm, give me the Gophers.
Prediction: 34-20 Minnesota
Record: 7-4 (4-4)
Week 14: vs Wisconsin
Luke Fickell enters the 2025 season potentially fighting for his job, and that’s where it only starts for the Badgers’ head coach.
Wisconsin has one of the hardest schedules in all of college football this season, and there’s a chance that, depending on how the season goes, a coaching change could already be made. We’re not ready to predict that just yet, but that is certainly in the realm of possibility. Furthermore, this very game could potentially determine Fickell’s long-term standing with the program as well.
The Gophers have won back-to-back games against the Badgers and three of the last four. If they can win for a third-straight season on Senior Day, it would be the first time since 1984 to 1987 that the Gophers beat the Badgers in three or more straight seasons.
Right now, I believe the Gophers have the more talented and better-coached team. The axe is staying in Minnesota.
Prediction: 23-20 Minnesota
Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Final Record: 8-4 (5-4)
I don’t think it’s a surprise that we have the Gophers going bowling again. This is a well-coached and talented team; the schedule, while it has its challenges, isn’t overly difficult. Their back-to-back matchups against Nebraska and Iowa are the toughest.
Ultimately, looking at the Gophers’ schedule, there are only two games that I would feel comfortable writing in pen as losses: Ohio State and Oregon. On the flip side, I’m quite confident they beat Buffalo, Northwestern State, California, Purdue, and Northwestern. Of those five, Cal is probably the one I’m most weary about, as it will be their first road game and the first road test for Drake Lindsey.
That leaves the five games against Rutgers, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Those five games are truly going to be what decides the Gophers’ 2025 season.
There is an avenue to a 10-2 campaign; there is no doubt about that. If Drake Lindsey, in particular, can surprise this fall and play at a higher level than expected, then Minnesota has a valid argument as the better team in each of those five teams. Furthermore, of those five games, four are at home.
However, the Gophers will almost certainly have to improve in one-possession games, which P.J. Fleck has preached about this fall.
“Everybody wants to win one-possession games. They wanna start fast. They wanna win the middle eight and accelerate in the middle, and they wanna finish the game,” Fleck said last week during his press conference.
“We’ve gotta be really good in two minutes, we gotta be really good in four minutes,” he added. “There were times when we were six and one, and we got the ball with six minutes to go. I mean, we never gave the ball back. There were times where maybe we were really good in four minutes years ago, but we just couldn’t catch up with two minutes.”
“Last year, I thought we were really good in two minutes, but I don’t necessarily think we were as good in four minutes. So you wanna show your team how games are won and lost. Most games in college football are lost less; that’s how you want it. You didn’t screw it up as much as the other team screwed it up. We wanna make sure we teach our teams how to win games.”
Which begs the question, can the Gophers simply “not screw it up as much as the other team screwed it up,” to use Fleck’s own words? That’s going to be the major question that the Gophers will face this fall. It sounds simple enough, but the Gophers over the last several seasons have surely had their fair share of avoidable losses.
The Gophers under Fleck have built a sustained culture of success. There is no doubt they’re a good football program, but can they take that next step as a program? To take that next step, they’ll have to turn those one-possession games into wins and avoid the inevitable.
