Minnesota Football vs Oregon Gameday Central: Keys to victory, predictions, and more
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3, 4-2) will take on the No. 8 Oregon Ducks (8-1, 5-1) on Friday night at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. Below, you can find game details, how to watch, the Golden Gopher Hour Podcast preview, keys to victory, predictions, and much more!
Game Details
Where: Eugene, Oregon
Stadium: Autzen Stadium
Time: 8:00 p.m. CT
Odds: Minnesota is a 25.5-point underdog to Oregon with the total set at 44.5 points.
How to watch, stream Minnesota Football vs Oregon
Friday’s game will be televised on Fox with Jason Benetti on the play-by-play, former Heisman winner Robert Griffin III as the analyst, and Alex Landestoy as the sideline reporter. Fans can also listen to the game on KFAN 100.3 with Mike Grimm, Darrell Thompson, and Justin Gaard on the call.
GOLDEN GOPHER HOUR PREVIEW
Minnesota’s Keys to Victory
KEY TO VICTORY #1: ESTABLISH THE RUN GAME
It feels like we’ve been saying this is a key to victory all season, but the Gophers continue to fail at it for the most part. Nonetheless, if Minnesota is going to upset Oregon on Friday night, it absolutely needs to shorten the game and limit the number of possessions the Ducks’ offense gets. The Gophers have only rushed for over 100 yards twice in Big Ten play this season—both games resulted in wins.
In their three losses, they ran for 130 yards against California, 68 against Ohio State, and 24 against Iowa. It’s not surprising that in the latter two matchups, they were blown out 42-3 and 41-3. But shortening the game isn’t the only factor; a strong passing attack is built upon a solid rushing attack and the ability to set up play-action.
KEY TO VICTORY #2: STAY ON THE FIELD
The Golden Gophers this season have struggled on third down at times, posting a 38.6% third-down conversion rate, which ranks 82nd nationally. In their three losses this season, their combined conversion rate drops to 30%. On fourth down, they’re converting just 30.0% of attempts, ranking 129th nationally. Meanwhile, the Ducks’ defense has been tremendous at getting off the field, allowing only a 31.1% conversion rate, good for 14th best nationally. This will be a tough matchup, but if Minnesota has any chance of pulling off an upset, winning the third-down battle will be crucial.
This also ties directly to the first key to victory. If the Gophers can establish their rushing attack on Friday, they’ll have more opportunities to stay ahead of the sticks and avoid third-and-long situations. If Minnesota can limit those third-and-longs and keep their attempts to 3rd-and-4 or less, they’ll be putting themselves at least in a better position to be successful.
KEY TO VICTORY #3: BE AGGRESSIVE
When you’re a 25.5-point underdog to a top-10 team on the road, playing conservatively isn’t going to help. On Friday, I’d like to see Minnesota adopt a philosophy similar to the one they used against Ohio State earlier this season. While it didn’t ultimately make much difference in that game, stepping outside their comfort zone and being aggressive could be a breath of fresh air.
Within reason, I’d like to see Fleck and his coaching staff show a willingness to take risks on both sides of the ball—risks they might not usually take. Will it likely matter in the end? Probably not. But in the few scenarios where Minnesota could win this game, each one would likely require the Gophers to be aggressive from start to finish in all three facets of the game.
PREDICTION
I don’t see Minnesota getting boatraced like they did in either of their last two road games against Ohio State and Iowa. But I would be lying if I said I see an avenue to victory for the Golden Gophers on Friday night.
This is a very good Oregon team. While they may not be as explosive as they were last year on offense, they are a much more complementary team this season and have the capabilities of being a national championship team. While it’s usually the Ducks’ offense that gets a lot of attention, their defense this season has been spectacular. They do a great job of slowing down both opposing rushing and passing attacks, including posting the nation’s top-ranked pass defense.
Considering the Gophers have not been able to run the ball successfully for most of this season, this is simply a really poor matchup for Minnesota’s offense. The wide receivers have struggled to get open for a majority of the season, and now they’ll face the nation’s best secondary with a redshirt freshman quarterback going into another brutal, hostile environment. Perhaps the Gophers’ passing attack surprises us and has some success, but we shouldn’t expect much on Friday night.
Defensively, I do believe the Gophers will be able to hang with the Ducks for a little bit. I do worry about a body-blow effect potentially affecting the defense as the game goes on. If the offense is unable to sustain drives and give the defense breathers, this one could get out of hand rather early—whether late in the second quarter or early in the third.
The Oregon injury report will be interesting to see two hours ahead of kickoff. Will Dakorien Moore be ready to go? Will Kenyon Saddiq play? If both don’t play, it should help the Gophers’ chances of keeping this one close.
Ultimately, I do have Minnesota covering the 25.5-point spread in this game, and I expect it to be somewhat competitive before Oregon pulls away in the second half. I’ll take Oregon 31, Minnesota 10, with the game being a bit closer than the scoreboard may indicate.
Statistical Comparison
| Minnesota Offense | Oregon Defense | ||
| Stat Category | # (National Rank) | Stat Category | # (National Rank) |
| Scoring Offense | 23.8 (T-96) | Scoring Defense | 13.8 (6) |
| Rushing Offense | 109.7 (123) | Rushing Defense | 113.2 (28) |
| Passing Offense | 203.3 (96) | Passing Defense | 126.1 (1) |
| Total Offense | 313.1 (120) | Total Defense | 239.3 (3) |
| Sacks Allowed | 16 (T-60) | Sacks | 15 (101) |
| 3rd Down % | 38.6 (T-82) | 3rd Down % | 31.1% (14) |
| 4th Down % | 30.0% (129) | 4th Down % | 68.1% (T-122) |
| Red Zone % | 85.2 (74) | Red Zone % | 93.7% (127) |
| Oregon Offense | Minnesota Defense | ||
| Stat Category | # (National Rank) | Stat Category | # (National Rank) |
| Scoring Offense | 38.7 (T-9) | Scoring Defense | 21.6 (39) |
| Rushing Offense | 239.6 (6) | Rushing Defense | 108.1 (21) |
| Passing Offense | 231.9 (67) | Passing Defense | 203.4 (46) |
| Total Offense | 471.6 (13) | Total Defense | 313.6 (21) |
| Sacks Allowed | 11 (22) | Sacks | 32 (5) |
| 3rd Down % | 47.7 (20) | 3rd Down % | 36.6% (49) |
| 4th Down % | 66.6% (T-22) | 4th Down % | 50.0% (T-47) |
| Red Zone % | 86.4% (T-58) | Red Zone % | 86.2% (92) |
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Follow along with Gophers Nation
Gophers Nation will have live updates on the Gophers’ week 12 clash with the Ducks throughout pregame, through P.J. Fleck and the players’ postgame press conference. Gophers Nation subscribers can chat with the staff and Gophers fans on the Inside Gophers Nation forum.
Stay Tuned
Stay tuned to Gophers Nation as we bring the latest updates on the Golden Gophers’ upcoming matchup against Oregon.
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