Minnesota Football vs Purdue Prediction: Gophers look to get back in the win column on Homecoming
It’s another Minnesota football game day, Gophers fans. The Minnesota Golden Gophers will look to rebound from a 42-3 loss to No. 1 Ohio State last weekend when they take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday evening at Huntington Bank Stadium.
The Golden Gophers entering Saturday are just about a touchdown favorite over the Boilermakers, as the line has shifted in favor of Purdue quite a bit since first opening as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.
Minnesota has won 41 of 79 matchups all-time between the Golden Gophers and Boilermakers, but it has been Purdue that has won each of the last two, in 2022 and 2023. Before those matchups, Minnesota had previously won eight of nine matchups.
Will Purdue make it three straight over Minnesota? Will the Golden Gophers’ defense be able to slow down Purdue’s passing attack? We dive into the match and are ready to make our own gameday prediction.
Prediction
Let’s start with this: this won’t be a one-sided contest. I don’t expect this to be a one-sided contest. When the spread opened with Minnesota as about a double-digit favorite, I thought it was way too many points. Second, I expect there to be quite a few points scored in this matchup as well. The total is currently sitting at just 49.5, I certainly like the over on that.
Why I feel that way about those two numbers is key to this prediction. I’m not sure either team’s pass defense is going to be able to slow the other down.
Let’s start with the Gophers.
In the last three games, Minnesota’s pass defense has allowed quarterbacks to complete 69-of-101 passing attempts, a 68.3% completion percentage for 869 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception.
Now, they’ll face a Purdue offense that can only move the ball consistently through the air. Over the last three weeks against quality competition in USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois, the Boilermakers’ passing attack has garnered a 61.2% completion percentage for 910 yards and five touchdowns. They do have five interceptions as well in the process, but an average of 303 yards in their last three games against three top-25 quality teams.
We’ve seen at times this season that both Za’Quan Bryan and John Nestor struggle in coverage. Both corners will have their hands full on Saturday night with this dangerous Purdue wide receiver room, quietly one of the best in the Big Ten.
Georgia transfer Nitro Tuggle has 13 receptions for 224 yards and three touchdowns, an average of 17.2 yards per reception. Arhmad Branch is also averaging over 17.0 yards per reception with 11 receptions for 194 yards. That’s not to mention pieces such as Michael Jackson III, who has 32 receptions for 305 yards, and Corey Smith with seven receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown.
It’s a worrisome matchup for the Gophers, to say the least, and barring a drastic turnaround, the Gophers’ secondary is going to be targeted heavily week after week going forward.
It will be critical on Saturday night for the Gophers’ pass rush to get any sort of pressure on quarterback Ryan Browne. If Minnesota struggles to do so like they did last week against Ohio State, it could be a very long day for Danny Collins’ defense.
The good news for Minnesota is that the Purdue pass defense has also struggled recently. In their last three games, again, against USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois, the Boilermakers have allowed 282, 281, and 390 passing yards, albeit only for three touchdowns. The only time an opponent hasn’t eclipsed the 200-yard mark was Ball State at the beginning of the season.
So that should be a favorable matchup for a Gophers’ offense that, much like Purdue, has only been able to find consistency through the air this season. In five games, redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey has been strong, completing 92-of-143 passing attempts for 1,052 yards and seven touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Expect another big potential day out of redshirt freshman wide receiver Jalen Smith, who has nine receptions for 198 yards and two touchdowns this season. Javon Tracy and Le’Meke Brockington both should be excited about their potential contributions on Saturday as well.
The passing attacks are not the only similarity between these two teams. Both teams have struggled to run the ball this fall. Minnesota is averaging just 128 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry. Over their last three games, the Gophers are averaging just 77.7 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.
Purdue’s output is not much better, just 89.7 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry.
Ultimately, we expect a lot of passing yards in this game and a lot of points scored. I’m not sure we’ll see a shootout going into the 30s or 40s, but I’m expecting this game to likely fairly easily eclipse that 49.5 point total.
Where this game, I believe, will be won or lost is in the turnover category.
Both teams have struggled to create turnovers, especially against Power Four competition. Minnesota has just one turnover this season against Power Four competition, an interception against Rutgers.
Overall, in their last seven games, the Gophers have just three turnovers total, a stark drop off from the 12 that they forced in their first seven games last season against Power Four competition.
Turnovers haven’t been coming any easier for Purdue, which has just one turnover overall this season in its five games after failing to record a turnover in its last four games of the 2024 season. Overall, since the beginning of the 2024 season, Purdue has failed to create a turnover in 13 of 17 games.
In a game that I expect to be back-and-forth in nature for the most part, perhaps a few punts mixed in throughout, it feels like whoever can not just win the turnover battle but even get the first turnover in this game might be the one who ultimately wins the game.
So, where does that lead us in terms of a final score prediction?
I’m going to take the Gophers in this one. I have a little bit more faith in their defense to find a stop or turnover than I do in Purdue’s, but I’m still expecting this one to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. First won to 30 wins.
Prediction: Minnesota 34, Purdue 28
Follow along with Gophers Nation
Gophers Nation will have live updates on the Gophers’ matchup against Purdue through pregame, through P.J. Fleck and the players’ postgame press conference. Gophers Nation subscribers can chat with the staff and Gophers fans on the Inside Gophers Nation forum.
Stay Tuned
Stay tuned to Gophers Nation as we bring the latest updates on the Golden Gophers’ upcoming matchup against Purdue.
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