Where does Minnesota rank in ESPN's Final SP+ ahead of 2025 season
On Wednesday, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his final 2025 preseason SP+ rankings. Considered one of the top metric-based rankings to evaluate teams in college football, Connelly’s rankings serve as a strong basis for each team’s abilities on offense, defense, and special teams.
If you’re new to the SP+ rankings, here is how Connelly defines it in his own words.
“SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”
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Following each week, the SP+ rankings are updated with the prior week’s statistics. Throughout the 2025 season, Gophers Nation will provide updates on the Golden Gophers’ placement.
With that being said, where do the Gophers rank in the final preseason SP+ rankings?
SP+ likes the Gophers but doesn’t love them
The Golden Gophers in the final preseason rankings come in at No. 40. A solid place to begin the 2025 season for P.J. Fleck’s squad. It is notably 13 ticks down from where the Gophers finished last season at No. 27 with their 8-5 record.
The Gophers’ model simulations average a 7-5 record in 2025, and their strength of schedule is one of the toughest ones in college football at No. 27.
When looking at the SP+ rankings for Minnesota’s offense, defense, and special teams, it’s very easy to see why the Gophers ended up where they did in the rankings.
The Gophers’ offense, which finished last season as the No. 81 offense in the rankings, enters the preseason at No. 96. Why the dropoff?
The Gophers offense, in the eyes of the SP+, is likely being penalized for losing quite a bit of talent and production on the offensive side of the ball: quarterback Max Brosmer, wide receiver Daniel Jackson, and wide receiver Elijah Spencer. The Gophers also did not run the ball successfully for much of last season and are replacing three key offensive linemen from last year’s squad. But again, it is not a predictive measure or ranking. The Gophers’ overall returning production on offense is 43% from last season, which ranks 103rd in the country.
Notably, the model loves the Gophers’ defense. After finishing last season as the model’s No. 11 defense, the Gophers begin the 2025 season as the No. 12 defense. The Gophers return plenty of talent and production on the defensive side of the ball, including defensive tackle Deven Eastern, defensive tackle Jaylen Logan-Redding, defensive end Anthony Smith, linebacker Maverick Baranowski, safety Koi Perich, and safety Kerry Brown.
Finally, the special teams is ranked No. 64 entering the season, just a spot down from its final ranking of No. 63 last season. The Gophers did lose their starting kicker and punter over the offseason but brought in a handful of transfers to address their needs, including kicker Brady Denaburg, punter Brody Richter, and punter Tom Weston.
Where do the Gophers rank among Big Ten programs?
The Golden Gophers rank No. 12 among Big Ten teams according to SP+ heading into the 2025 season.
At the top of the rankings are the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions, No. 7 Oregon Ducks, and the No. 8 Michigan Wolverines, rounding out top-10 representation. The Big Ten’s next best team isn’t until the 20s with the No. 21 USC Trojans, No. 23 Indiana Hoosiers, followed by No. 25 Iowa Hawkeyes, No. 27 Illinois Fighting Illini, No. 32 Nebraska Cornhuskers, No. 37 Washington Huskies, and No. 38 Wisconsin Badgers.
What Connelly said about the Gophers earlier this offseason
We highly encourage you to check out Bill’s full Big Ten season preview here.
On the Gophers’ offense:
“The offense didn’t quite plod well enough in 2024 (81st in offensive SP+), and now a redshirt freshman quarterback takes over behind center. But 6-foot-5, 230-pound Drake Lindsey comes well regarded, and the skill corps might have a bit more explosiveness than normal. Running back A.J. Turner (8.3 yards per carry at Marshall) could complement returnee Darius Taylor beautifully in the backfield, and receiver transfers Javon Tracy (Miami-Ohio) and Logan Loya (UCLA) could work well with big-play returnee Le’Meke Brockington. Rumor has it that dynamic sophomore safety Koi Perich could get snaps on offense as well, and Fleck added another blue-chip sophomore in Malachi Coleman (Nebraska). The line is generally big and solid, but it will be reliant on transfers with three lost starters and four portal additions. Though this will still be a Minnesota offense, for better or worse, it feels as if this version might have a bit higher ceiling and lower floor than usual.”
On the Gophers’ defense:
The secondary could be pretty sophomore-heavy with safeties Perich (five interceptions and nine run stops last year), Kerry Brown, and 2023 starter Darius Green all manning key roles, but there are veterans in the front six. Deven Eastern, a 310-pound tackle, made 14 run stops, sacks leader Anthony Smith returns, and linebacker transfer Jeff Roberson (Oklahoma State) should comfortably replace Cody Lindenberg in the middle. If at least one of a trio of smaller-school transfers clicks — end Steven Curtis (Illinois State), tackle Rushawn Lawrence (Stony Brook), corner Jaylen Bowden (NC Central) — then this should be another strong defense.
Overall:
The high variance potential of the offense makes Minnesota hard to project — trips to Ohio State and Oregon are probably the only unwinnable games, but just about any opponent besides Northwestern State could trip the Gophers up on a bad day. There might not be a bigger wild card in the middle of the conference.
