Preview: New Mexico vs Minnesota - Rate Bowl (Phoenix)
How to Watch: Minnesota vs. New Mexico
Date: Friday, December 26
Time: 2:30 p.m.MTN
TV: ESPN
Location: Chase Field — Phoenix, Arizona
Why New Mexico Will Win
This New Mexico team is not a fluke. In Jason Eck’s first season, the Lobos have gone from long-time bottom dweller to one of the toughest, most physical teams in college football. The identity is clear: control the game on the ground, limit mistakes, and punish opponents defensively.
Offensively, Jack Layne has managed the system effectively, throwing for 2,398 yards with 13 touchdowns while operating behind a run-first approach. He has taken 28 sacks, but the offense is designed to avoid forcing throws and instead lean on a deep, productive running back room.
That rushing attack is the backbone of everything New Mexico does. Damon Bankston leads the way with 578 rushing yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns. DJ McKinney adds 454 yards and seven touchdowns, while Scottre Humphrey provides another physical option with 349 yards and six scores. When the Lobos run for more than 80 yards, they are 9-0 this season, a telling stat that defines how they win.
Defensively, New Mexico brings pressure, discipline, and reliable tackling at every level. Jaxton Eck has been everywhere, piling up 126 total tackles, while the player that deserves plenty more recognition is Keyshawn James-Newby has been a game-wrecker inside with eight sacks, five pass deflections, and two forced fumbles. This front does not allow offenses to get comfortable.
The secondary finishes plays. Taivon Combs has posted 67 solo tackles, three pass breakups, and an interception, while Jon Johnson adds 50 tackles, five pass deflections, and another pick. This unit limits explosive plays and forces opponents to methodically move the ball, something Minnesota has struggled to do consistently.
This is not a finesse team. The Lobos hit, swarm, and wear opponents down. They control tempo, shorten games, and turn contests into four-quarter fights. Also, this could easily become a sea of red as New Mexicans head to Phoenix for Christmas.
Why Minnesota Could Win
Minnesota is at its best when quarterback Drake Lindsey is efficient in the short and intermediate passing game. The Gophers protect the ball well and typically win the turnover margin.
That said, this is not a typical Minnesota team. The running game has been inconsistent, and the Gophers have struggled away from home, entering the bowl winless outside Minneapolis.
Grine’s Prediction
Minnesota will have moments, but New Mexico’s physicality, defensive discipline, and ability to control tempo should decide the game late. The Lobos won’t flinch, and they won’t beat themselves.
Prediction: New Mexico wins a close, hard-nosed bowl game. New Mexico 26, Minnesota 23 (Overtime)
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