ESPN FPI projects the remaining 2025 Rutgers Football schedule
Rutgers Football was on their first bye week of the season this weekend, as they hope to have reconfigured some things to turn this 2025 season around. The Scarlet Knights will return to the gridiron on Friday night, but before kickoff happens, let’s take a look at the team’s chances in every game this season with the help of ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Thanks to ESPN’s FPI, there is now an analytical way to predict the victor of each college football game in the entire nation. For those that aren’t familiar with the FPI, you can read the definition of the index here.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictiverating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.
The 2025 Rutgers Football program is now ranked No. 51, which is down five spots from the No. 46 position it held last week, according to the latest update. Let’s take a look at the Scarlet Knights’ long-term outlook.
Regular season record projection: 5.2 – 6.8 total wins
How likely are the Scarlet Knights to win out?: 0.0 percent
Chances of getting to six wins on the year? 37.2 percent
Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0.0 percent
Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent
Chances of making the title game: 0.0 percent
Rutgers percentage chance to win it all: 0.0 percent
In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Rutgers Football winning each of the games on the 2025 schedule.
| GAME / OPPONENT | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK |
| Oct. 10th @ Washington | 24.2% | -0.2% |
| Oct. 18th vs. Oregon | 14.0% | -0.5% |
| Oct. 25th @ Purdue | 62.7% | -1.4% |
| Nov. 1st @ Illinois | 26.7% | -2.5% |
| Nov. 8th vs. Maryland | 57.0% | +0.5% |
| Nov. 22nd @ Ohio State | 6.7% | -1.5% |
| Nov. 29th vs. Penn State | 25.8% | +5.7% |
Assessing the rest of the 2025 Rutgers season
After back to back losses versus Iowa and Minnesota, the 2025 Rutgers Football team is going to have their back up against the wall a bit, as things just got a whole lot harder for a chance at reaching yet another bowl game under Greg Schiano.
The Scarlet Knights have chance to swing momentum back in their favor of making a postseason appearance this upcoming Friday, as they travel out to Washington, but the Huskies have one of the better offense’s in the conference, meanwhile Rutgers has one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten. Hopefully Greg Schiano and crew made some bye week adjustments to prepare for this one.
After that, things are going to be tough as Maryland looked pretty solid despite their loss versus the Huskies on Saturday, Purdue is a bit peskier than most thought coming into the season, Oregon and Ohio State appear to be on a totally different level, Illinois is once again solid, but Penn State looks pretty beatable. Not an easy road ahead for the Scarlet Knights, who have to take it just one game at a time and see if they can get back on track this upcoming week.
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