Performance Predictions: Curtain call at Bryant-Denny for Alabama’s stars

Alabama returns to Bryant-Denny for its final home game of the season, a chance to reset after last week’s loss snapped the nation’s longest home winning streak and sent the Crimson Tide tumbling six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Senior Day brings a mix of farewells, evaluations, and opportunities as veterans look to close out their careers on the right note, while young quarterbacks, rotational defenders, and future contributors get extended action in what should be a lopsided matchup. 

Sharp day for the quarterbacks

Ty Simpson’s day should be short. Ideally, he won’t see any action in the second half. He was outstanding following Alabama’s season-opening loss, going 17-of-17 through the air against Louisiana-Monroe, and posted three other games above 70-percent completions (Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Missouri). He sits just 213 passing yards shy of 3,000 for the season, a reachable number on Saturday, though it will depend on field position and how long he actually plays. A near-flawless outing feels more realistic, which he surely wouldn’t mind after recording 10-plus incompletions in each of the last four games (64-percent completion rate during that span).

It’s been more than two months since redshirt sophomore Austin Mack or freshman Keelon Russell have seen meaningful snaps, with most games remaining competitive deep into the second half. Both shined in their lone extended action during the home opener against ULM: Mack went 8-of-10 for 80 yards and two scores, while Russell finished 4-of-6 for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Russell hasn’t attempted a pass since, and Mack’s only other throw came against Wisconsin—an incompletion.

Expect both to play this week, and if they do, to operate the full offense rather than simply draining the clock. The touchdown count from their debut may not repeat, but it would be surprising if at least one doesn’t connect for six. When they take the field, much of the same sentiment from September will return: Alabama’s future appears to be in good hands, regardless of who eventually wins the job.

Don’t Miss: First- and second-year players we want to see play vs. Eastern Illinois

Take the over in the run game

This is likely the final game in which Alabama can exceed 150 rushing yards during the regular season or postseason. The matchup should be out of hand early, and while the offense won’t shift exclusively to handoffs in the second half, it should produce its best day on the ground against the No. 52 rush defense in the FCS. Eastern Illinois is allowing 144 rushing yards per game.

Alabama has faced three top-20 rush defenses this season, surpassing 100 total rushing yards in two of those matchups (Georgia and Missouri). The Crimson Tide ranks No. 121 nationally in rushing offense (108.7 yards per game). It has been ugly, but there have also been rare moments where the run game has shown signs of life. The offense should have a strong showing against EIU. We’ll likely see more carries and bigger gains this week. If there’s ever a time to work on improvement, it’s now, before heading on the road to face the No. 10 rush defense next week at Auburn.

Oh, and it’s apparently what really matters to the playoff selection committee.

Four or more sacks for the defense

Neither Tim Keenan nor Deontae Lawson has recorded a sack this season, but one of the two team captains will make a play in the backfield on Senior Day. Eastern Illinois allows more than three sacks per game (3.09), ranking No. 112 in the FCS. I’d probably take the over based on Yhonzae Pierre alone if he were playing the entire game.

We’ll see several players who’ve contributed throughout the season receive a higher volume of snaps. Guys like Kelby Collins, Keon Keeley, Noah Carter, and others should get quality reps, and they’re needed as they remain in the rotation. The front should overwhelm EIU, and I expect Alabama to hit a strong number in the sack column.

Red Morgan grabs one, too.

Alabama comfortably wins the turnover battle

Eastern Illinois ranks tied for No. 71 in the FCS in turnovers lost with 11 interceptions and four fumbles. Alabama’s defense has generated 16 takeaways this season (No. 4 in the SEC, No. 32 nationally). Multiple turnovers won’t carry the same significance this week as they would next weekend at Jordan-Hare, but coming off a game with zero takeaways against Oklahoma, it feels like a safe bet that the defense takes it out on one of the weaker teams in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Draft stock for Alabama’s veteran defenders isn’t going to shift based on what happens Saturday. Sixteen seniors will be honored, including Keenan, Lawson, Justin Jefferson, Nikhai Hill-Green, and DaShawn Jones, on the defensive side. Kane Wommack’s unit was outstanding against the Sooners. They won’t log as many snaps this week, but expect a few interceptions, a fumble recovery, and maybe another defensive score.

New streak begins on the final ride at home

Alabama gets back on track Saturday and secures an easy victory, before its next time in Bryant-Denny, which comes against East Carolina on September 5, 2026 (depending on how things may shake out if UA secures a playoff spot). This is likely the final home appearance for several players, whether due to graduation, the NFL, or the transfer portal. The game shouldn’t be close, but you still want to see the team play with an edge before the Iron Bowl. What do we learn from this type of game? Maybe how pissed they are after dropping six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The future, those outside the starting lineup, will get its chance to shine. A number of players are likely weighing whether to stay or transfer after the season in search of more opportunities for playing time. Alabama already has a feel for what they are based on practices and reps against the starters. Some may also be looking to raise their stock ahead of potential portal decisions. And make no mistake: other programs will be watching closely to see who can be poached.

A lot is happening, even if it’s an SEC Network+ game that most won’t (outside of UA fans) pay close attention to. Stay for the players, and soak in the final trip to Bryant-Denny until next year. Sean Payton, Tony Romo, or Jimmy Garoppolo aren’t walking through that gate, but the third-team defense still might give up a late touchdown.

Final score: Alabama 52 Eastern Illinois 10

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