ESPN Football Power Index predicts Gators' record

The Florida Gators posted their first winning season since 2020, closed with four straight wins and finished 8-5 last year. Meanwhile, UF returns lots of talent, including quarterback DJ Lagway, a potential star. Yet despite this, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) does not seem overly bullish on Florida in 2025 at this time.

The FPI has predicted the win-loss record for each SEC team, and if you’re a Gators fan you’re not going to like this. The FPI has UF going just 6-6.

Here is what On3’s Steve Samra wrote about UF in an article about ESPN’s FPI rankings:

Going into the 2024 season, Florida head coach Billy Napier was firmly on the hot seat. Then, throughout the season, the Gators showed plenty of improvement, especially when quarterback DJ Lagway took over. Things still weren’t perfect by any means, but it was enough to get another season.

There aren’t real expectations for the Gators to compete for an SEC Championship in 2025. There are, however, expectations they take another step forward with Lagway at quarterback for the Gators. Around him, there’s plenty of question marks. Florida is a young team, after all. Still, they’ve recruited well and have plenty of raw talent.

Florida does face arguably the most difficult schedule in the country (again) and that obviously has something to do with this rankings projection.

Yet the FPI has the following 11 SEC teams finishing with more overall wins than the Gators in 2025: Texas Longhorns (10-2), Georgia Bulldogs (10-2), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3), Tennessee Volunteers (9-3), Ole Miss Rebels (8-4), Texas A&M Aggies (8-4), LSU Tigers (8-4), Auburn Tigers (7-5), South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5), Oklahoma Sooners (7-5) and Missouri Tigers (7-5).

Are the Florida Gators better than the FPI would suggest?

Are the Gators being slept on by the ESPN FPI?

It’s possible. Athlon has the Gators 11th in its preseason top 25. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus has multiple Florida position units ranked among the top 10 in the country, including both the offensive and defensive lines.

Wrote PFF’s Max Chadwick about the Florida defensive line:

The Florida Gators return two potential first-round picks on their defensive line in edge defender Tyreak Sapp and interior defender Caleb Banks. Sapp is my No. 7 edge rusher in college football and was ninth in the nation with a 90.4 PFF grade in 2024. Banks was my honorable mention defensive tackle and leads all returning Power Four interior defenders with 53 pressures since 2023. 

Florida also returned another starter in edge defender George Gumbs. Sophomore defensive tackle LJ McCray is also expected to break out as he was a top-10 overall recruit from the 2024 high school class.

Now, here is what he said about the UF offensive line:

The Florida Gators had the third-highest-graded offensive line in the Power Four in 2024 (85.9) and brought back five of the six players who played at least 300 snaps for them. Jake Slaughteris my top returning interior offensive lineman in the sport, as he was the only Power Four center who earned 80.0-plus grades as both a pass-blocker and run-blocker. Left tackle Austin Barber has also generated first-round buzz and only surrendered five pressures on 107 true pass sets last season. 

At guard will once again be Knijeah Harris and Damieon George Jr., who each tied for sixth in the SEC with identical 72.4 run-blocking grades. Redshirt sophomore Bryce Lovett is the new starting right tackle but tied for seventh among SEC guards last year with a 73.3 PFF grade on a healthy 362 snaps.

Other position groups, including quarterback, running back and receiver also have gotten positive preseason buzz.

Where did the ESPN FPI have the Florida Gators in the 2024 preseason rankings last June? No. 20. That, according to an ESPN article at the time, was based “on the strength of 15 returning starters” for Napier’s team.