A look into Indiana's Big Ten Championship and CFP scenarios

As Indiana approaches the end of its regular season, conversations have begun regarding its future as it relates to postseason play.

The Hoosiers are 11-0 with an 8-0 conference record and have an inside track at a Big Ten Championship appearance. According to ESPN, Indiana also has a 99.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff, giving the Hoosiers a great shot at competing in both postseason events.

While it might seem like the Hoosiers’ path is very simple — and it is — there are still plenty of scenarios that will impact how both the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff take shape.

I’ll get into all that and more here, as here are different scenarios that could play out for Indiana’s 2025 postseason run.

Big Ten Championship scenarios

To put it simply, Indiana is in the Big Ten Championship Game if it beats Purdue on Black Friday.

Things get interesting in the unlikely scenario of the Hoosiers losing to the Boilermakers, though. There’s a chance where Indiana clinches in Week 13, ahead of its game with Purdue, making the Old Oaken Bucket game meaningless as far as the conference standings are concerned.

If Maryland beats Michigan, and USC beats Oregon this week, the Hoosiers will play in the championship game, no questions asked. If Michigan or Oregon wins, then Indiana would need Ohio State to beat Michigan in order to get in if IU is defeated by Purdue.

If Indiana were to lose to Purdue, Michigan beats Maryland and Ohio State, and either USC or Oregon finishes 8-1 in conference, the Hoosiers would miss out on the title game. Indiana loses all four-team tiebreakers, and loses all three team tiebreakers, unless USC is included.

Long story short: win and you’re in, but the Boilers could make their season and muck-up Indiana’s title game shot if they could pull off the upset.

A different conversation begins when you start looking at who Indiana could play in the championship game, and it’s also fairly simple with a few slight changes.

If Ohio State finishes 9-0, it’ll play Indiana. But if the Buckeyes lose to Michigan, they’re almost surely out. OSU would need Michigan to lose to Maryland and have the winner of USC/Oregon lose its Week 14 game.

The most likely scenario outside of Ohio State going 9-0 would be Michigan beating the Buckeyes after beating Maryland, with either Oregon or USC going 8-1 as well. This creates a three-team tie, and the winner of Oregon/USC wins it every time.

This means that, assuming IU is 9-0 in conference, it has a much higher chance of playing a West Coast school than Michigan. Of course, the Hoosiers have the best chance of playing Ohio State, but it’s interesting to look into different possibilities with just two weeks of games remaining.

College Football Playoff scenarios

The CFP is a whole different animal compared to the Big Ten Championship, but I’ll still explore different scenarios — with the caveat that this is all up to the committee’s discretion. With the Big Ten Championship, you know exactly who the competing teams will be because it’s standings- and tiebreaker-based. With the CFP, you’re trying to project how the committee will view and seed differentiating teams.

One thing we know for certain is the format. Seeds 1-4 will go straight to the quarterfinals, while seeds 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 in the first round. Indiana has a very good chance of getting a top-four seed, as even with a Big Ten Championship loss, the Hoosiers are set up to avoid the first round completely.

If that’s the case, here are the four quarterfinal bowl games that Indiana could compete in:

Wednesday, Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET — Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

Thursday, Jan. 1 at Noon ET — Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Thursday, Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET — Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential in Pasadena, Calif.

Thursday, Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET — Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans

If Indiana were to win the Big Ten Championship, it would automatically be placed in the Rose Bowl, as historical bowl tie-ins still play a role in the 12-team playoff. If Indiana wasn’t the conference champ, it wouldn’t likely play in the Sugar Bowl, as the SEC champion would go there due to its bowl tie-in.

That leaves the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl as the remaining options for the Hoosiers. If Indiana were ranked No. 2 or No. 3 behind the SEC champion, IU could play in the Cotton Bowl due to it being closer in proximity. If the Hoosiers were ranked No. 4 and the team ahead of them was closer to the Cotton Bowl, then Indiana would get sent to the Orange Bowl as the only remaining option.

That’s a simplistic way of explaining where the Hoosiers could play in the quarterfinals, but Indiana also has options in terms of its semifinal site. Those bowl games are as follows:

Thursday, Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET — Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

Thursday, Jan. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET — Vrbo Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

The semifinal bowl sites are determined by the No. 1 seed. Whichever bowl the highest-ranked team is closer to geographically becomes the semifinal site on its side of the bracket, whether that top-ranked team reaches the semifinal or not.

Finally, the national championship game is played in:

Monday, Jan. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET — College Football Playoff National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

With so many moving parts, it’s unclear where Indiana would be seeded if it didn’t win the Big Ten Championship, but it’s extremely likely the Hoosiers finish in the top four. If not, Indiana would host a CFP game — but by most indications, IU will be playing in strictly bowl sites during its CFP run.

There are still two weeks left in the regular season, but it’s never too early to start planning for the future, as Indiana is set to embark on what it hopes is a historic postseason run after a record-breaking regular season.

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