3 Kentucky Football Stats Must Improve after the Bye

It’s the bye week, a time for the Kentucky Wildcats to mend injuries and reassess their plan of attack in all three phases of the game. A good starting point is to take a look at the numbers to understand why the Wildcats are 5-2. The stat sheet has not been kind to Mark Stoops’ program. Let’s take a closer look at which numbers must improve for Kentucky to finish SEC play better than they started.

Third Down Offense (and Defense)

Total plays is a number discussed frequently amid the offensive struggles. It’s hard to run plays when you’re going three-and-out. Kentucky had 10 possessions against Missouri with less than six offensive snaps.

The Wildcats are converting only 38.57% of their third downs, which ranks eighth in the SEC and No. 81 nationally. Why is Kentucky struggling on money downs? They’re getting behind the chains on early downs, forcing the Big Blue Wall to protect Devin Leary in obvious passing situations. If he’s not getting hit, players are dropping passes.

Average Third Down Distance

• Ball State: 7.3
• EKU: 7.4
• Akron: 10.9
• Vanderbilt: 8.5
• Florida: 7.0
• Georgia: 9.1
• Mizzou: 10.6

Not only is Kentucky struggling to keep drives alive, Brad White‘s defense is bad at getting off the field. Opponents convert 43.88% of their third down attempts. Kentucky’s third down defense ranks No. 107 nationally. Only Vanderbilt is worse in the SEC. Offenses are staying ahead of the chains on early downs, setting them up for success against Kentucky when it matters most.

Opponent Average Third Down Distance

• Ball State: 6.2
• EKU: 5.8
• Akron: 5.6
• Vanderbilt: 6.2
• Florida: 8.7
• Georgia: 6.4
• Mizzou: 5.2

*Shout out to Justin Rowland for compiling the third down distance numbers.

Completion Percentage

This offseason Kentucky pushed all its chips in on the passing offense and that gamble has been a disaster. Rather than a strength, the passing offense is the Wildcats’ greatest overall weakness. Who’s fault is it? Everybody’s.

Liam Coen‘s script has been great. Outside of that, he hasn’t found a rhythm as a play-caller, or given his quarterback enough lay-ups to build confidence.

Devin Leary has not completed more than 52% of his passes in one game against SEC competition. In those four games he’s completed 48-of-101 passes. A 47% completion percentage is awful. Period.

At this point we know it’s not all on Leary. It’s hard to complete passes to receivers who are covered. Kentucky built this offense around the quarterback, Barion Brown and Dane Key. According to PFF data, Brown has caught 23 passes on 47 targets, while Key has 17 receptions on 35 targets. Less than a 50% catch rate for your top two receiving targets is inconceivable.

The offense was built around these three players and they’ve fallen well, well short of expectations. They have to be better. There’s no other way to put it.

Penalties

Kentucky is one of the most penalized teams in college football. Through seven games they’ve committed 54 penalties. Only seven teams have been flagged more, and two of those teams have played eight games. The Cats are losing an average of 68.4 yards per game to penalties.

Discipline, or lack there of, was the first thing Mark Stoops addressed in his postgame comments following the loss to Missouri. He talked about it once again on Monday night’s call-in show.

““We have to get it fixed. There’s really no excuse for it… Some of the penalties that we’ve had this year, I can’t defend — not to our fanbase, not to our team.”

Kentucky is a team that struggles to complete passes and is consistently playing in third and long. That leaves a very slim margin for error and the Cats are compounding those problems by taking away almost 70 yards per game. It’s a recipe for disaster, one we’ve seen unfold in SEC play.

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