Bio Blast: Florida Gators

Kentucky is off to a 4-0 start in 2023 but has yet to play a top-50 opponent. That will change on Saturday afternoon when Billy Napier makes the trip to Lexington for the first time as an SEC head coach. After finishing 3-0 during a three-game homestand at The Swamp, the Florida Gators have a ton of momentum.

With a transfer quarterback and a new defensive coordinator, the Gators landed a signature win under Napier beating Tennessee 29-16 in Week 3 as 5.5-point home dogs. Now the Gators will be looking to pull off their second outright upset of the season in their first SEC road trip in 2023.

Saturday afternoon at Kroger Field will be a big one in the SEC East. Both Kentucky and Florida are looking to emerge as Georgia’s toughest competition. The head-to-head result on Saturday will go a long way in determining whether both team’s seasons is ultimately considered a success or failure. We’ve got a college football game with stakes.

Let’s take a closer look at Napier’s second team in Gainesville.

Run-first offense

Things got out of hand in Florida’s first game of the season against Utah on the road. The Gators got in a hole early, and Kyle Whittingham‘s top-10 defense stoned the run game. Quickly down double-digits, the Gators went pass-heavy.

During Florida’s three-game win streak, we haven’t seen that philosophy return.

Billy Napier is a play-calling head coach that wants to play bully ball on offense. The Gators have two full-time offensive line coaches and a deep tailback room. Florida wants to establish the run. Napier’s team has shown a commitment to getting the ground game rolling the last three weeks.

Florida’s top three tailbacks have averaged 34 total carries per game for an offense that is averaging 66.7 snaps per game in this stretch. The Gators are feeding their backs and that likely will not change as we get deeper into the season.

Trevor Etienne is the best of the bunch. The sophomore tailback was a nice late recruiting win for Napier’s staff shortly after being hired and the Louisiana native looks like one of the better backs in the SEC through four weeks. Etienne leads the Gators in rushing yards (329), yards per rush (6.71), and EPA/rush (0.17). Through his career, the tailbacks owns a 19.2 percent explosive rate with 32 rushes of 10-plus yards. Kentucky must get No. 7 on the ground.

Former Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson Jr. is a strong sidekick to Etienne that has struggled with efficiency (36% rushing success rate) to this point but is a quality tailback. Florida is also slowly working in four-star true freshman Treyaun Webb.

Expect a heavy run percentage from Florida on Saturday.

New defense wins early and often

Florida was bad on defense in year one under Billy Napier. That marked the third consecutive year that the Gators owned a sub-50 ranking in yards per play. The 2022 campaign was the worst of the bunch as the Gators finished No. 103 in yards per play (5.92) and No. 110 (2.78) in points per drive. Under defensive coordinator Patrick Toney, Florida finished No. 69 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings marking one of the worst finishes in program history.

Toney left the program for a position coaching job with the Arizona Cardinals after the season and Napier replaced him with Austin Armstrong. The Southern Miss defensive coordinator in 2022 accepted a position to coach linebackers at Alabama before pivoting to Florida. So far, that is looking like an excellent hire.

The 30-year-old play-caller has flipped the switch on defense as the Gators currently rank No. 2 overall in success rate (29.4%), No. 29 in EPA/play (-0.12), and No. 30 in yards per play (4.66). The Gators do not produce at ton of havoc ranking No. 103 in tackles for loss per game (4.75), No. 115 in passes defended per game (2.75), and No. 128 in takeaways (one). However, they’ve taken advantage of an advantageous schedule.

Utah, Tennessee, and Charlotte each rank sub-80 in passing EPA/play. There could be yards available against this secondary, but the front does seem legit. The defense is stuffing the run (2.88 yards per rush) and the pass rush (41.2% pressure rate in 114 dropbacks, according to PFF data) is getting after it. The Gators want to win early and then let their front seven hunt on passing downs.

Florida is using a dink-and-dunk passing game

To replace top-five pick Anthony Richardson, Florida went into the transfer portal and took a look at multiple quarterbacks. Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt and Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall were two rumored names. The former never entered the portal and the latter could not transfer due to some credits issues. Devin Leary was also a potential target.

The Gators got Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz on campus for an official visit. The redshirt senior also took an official visit to Kentucky but committed to the Gators shortly after the Wildcats landed Leary. To this point, Mertz is playing winning football for Billy Napier.

Mertz is completing 77.8 percent of 27.0 throws per game on a 52.1 percent passing success rate. The quarterback has seven completions of 25-plus yards despite not pushing the ball down the field. Florida’s new quarterback has one of the lowest average depth of target (6.4) after Richardson had one of the highest (11.5) in college football last season. Florida’s passing game is a dink-and-dunk operation.

Nearly 65 percent of Mertz’s throws have been less than 10 yards. Passes behind the line of scrimmage are the most frequent ones we’ve seen from this Florida passing game. The Gators are getting the ball out quick and looking to live off yards after catch in the passing game. Former Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall has quickly emerged as Mertz’s favorite target. The redshirt senior leads the team in targets (35) and is producing over five yards of YAC per catch. Mertz is getting the ball to his top guy and letting him create.

Defenses must tackle well in space to slow down this quick pass offense.