Bio Blast: Georgia Bulldogs

September stood out as a huge month for the Kentucky football program because of what was on the schedule in October. The Wildcats could not afford to get off to a slow start. Well, they got off a slow start thanks to losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina. The Cats are behind the eight-ball.

Things are going to get much more difficult this month.

There are three SEC games on the schedule in October. UK is a projected double-digit underdog in six remaining games and will only be a favorite when Tennessee Tech comes to Lexington in mid-November. This season is slipping away quickly. Up next is perhaps the toughest challenge on the schedule.

Georgia again has one of the best rosters in college football under Kirby Smart and is expected to be in national title contention for most of the season. The Bulldogs saw their 33-game home winning streak come to an end against Alabama last week but this team remains a legitimate national title contender. This may not be a squad that was the same caliber of the 2021 and 2022 national title teams but UGA is still UGA.

Let’s take our first close look at the Dawgs.

Offense remains a work in progress under Mike Bobo

Todd Monken left the Georgia football program after helping lead the Bulldogs to consecutive national championships in 2021 and 2022. Offensive analyst Buster Faulkner also left the program after that season to call plays at Georgia Tech. Kirby Smart decided to promoted a very familiar name to offensive coordinator.

Mike Bobo played quarterback at Georgia from 1993-97, spent the 1999 season as a graduate assistant, and was on Mark Richt‘s UGA staff from 2001-14. Bobo spent eight seasons as the program’s offensive coordinator before leaving to become the head coach at Colorado State in 2015. The 51-year-old returned to the SEC a few years later serving as the offensive coordinator at South Carolina in 2020 and Auburn in 2021 before returning to Athens in 2022. After one year as an analyst, Bobo was promoted to the coordinator chair.

This is Bobo’s 13th season calling plays in the SEC. The Dawgs appear to have a top-15 offense again but they remain a work in progress and are not the dominant unit we saw under Monken.

Georgia enters the weekend ranked No. 57 in yards per play (6.05). The Bulldogs rank inside the top 30 in both rushing and passing success rate but creating explosive plays for this pro-style attack has been an issue. New starting quarterback Gunner Stockton has been solid (69.7% completion rate on 27.3 throws per game, 7.8 yards per attempt, 159 non-sack rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns, 0 turnovers). Wideouts Colbie Young (17 receptions, 238 yards) and Zachariah Branch (14 receptions, 216 yards) have been dynamic. Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier each have 200-plus rushing yards on over five yards per carry.

The pieces are in place for this to be a top-10 offense but it hasn’t played out that way yet. UGA is struggling to find explosive plays (No. 66 in plays of 20-plus yards) and that has turned into an offense that has failed to reach 30 points twice this season.

Leaky pass defense

Georgia’s offense is not the only one that is messing around. The typically strong defense in Athens ranks No. 85 in success rate allowed and No. 71 in EPA/play allowed. These are stunning numbers for an operation that has usually been one the best in college football. The offense almost always gets criticism but this defense is not playing well enough right now.

The pass defense has been a problem.

Georgia ranks No. 89 in completion percentage (63.9%), No. 106 in yards per dropback (7.45), No. 112 in EPA/dropback (0.17), and No. 116 in passing success rate (47.5%). The Bulldogs have recorded just five sacks on 41 pressures and have allowed 280-plus passing yards in consecutive SEC games. This is a major issue right now for UGA.

The Bulldogs are stopping the run like usual (No. 6 in non-sack yards per rush allowed) but are having major issues against the pass.

Georgia comes short of expectations as a big favorite

Since taking home consecutive national titles in 2021 and 2022, Georgia has struggled to cover spreads. These betting lines have gotten inflated due to UGA’s dominance and that has led to a 9-22-1 against the spread (ATS) record since the beginning of the 2023 season. Smart’s team typically fails to cover the number.

That is poor cover percentage really shows up when UGA is a 20-point favorite or more. Georgia is now 0-16 ATS since 2022 as a big favorite. The Bulldogs always win these games but have found themselves in close games in the fourth quarter.

Georgia Tech took Georgia to overtime last season as a 17-point road underdog. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes in 13-12 loss last season as a 22-point home underdog. South Carolina led 14-3 at halftime as a 27-point road underdog in 2023 before things game unglued in the second half. This is a spot where the Bulldogs do not play well.

There will be a lot of talk about Georgia being extra dialed-in after last week’s home loss to Alabama this week. Under Kirby Smart, UGA is 8-2 outright (4-5-1 ATS) after a regular season loss. Just last season, UGA lost a close game to Alabama early and failed to cover a 21-point spread at home against an Auburn team that finished 5-7. That was a 14-10 game in the middle of the third quarter.

Georgia struggles to cover big numbers. Kentucky is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a 15-plus point road underdog. The trends say this SEC meeting could be closer than expected in the second half.