Bio Blast: Louisville Cardinals

The final week in the college football regular season has arrived. For the 10th time, Kentucky (5-6, 2-6) will end it by playing for the Governor’s Cup. The Wildcats will travel down I-64 to play Louisville (7-4, 4-4) for the 37th edition of this rivalry. This year’s game is a bit different than the others.

Both teams are dealing with a long injury report. Each is expected to be without multiple starters on Saturday afternoon. Kentucky is looking to end a very up-and-down season with a win. Louisville is absolutely reeling as Jeff Brohm is on the verge of losing four consecutive games for the first time since the COVID-19 season. But this game still has to be played. There are bragging rights at stake in this trophy game in a battle between two programs that do not like each other.

KSR’s first close look at Brohm’s third team at Louisville has arrived.

A disappointing offense

Wide receiver Chris Bell (104 targets, 72 receptions, 917 yards, 6 TD) is officially out for Saturday. Tailbacks Isaac Brown (91 carries, 782 yards, 40 missed tackles forced, 5 TD) and Keyjuan Brown (81 carries, 592 yards, 28 missed tackles forced, 6 TD) are both expected to be inactive. Quarterback Miller Moss (64.3% completion rate, 2,344 passing yards, 7.0 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 7 INT) is questionable.

Louisville is banged up on offense, but this unit has had a disappointing season even when healthy. An argument can be made that this has ended up becoming one of Brohm’s worst offenses since he became a play-calling head coach.

• Points Per Drive: 2.09 (No. 81 overall)
• Success Rate: 42.6% (No. 57 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 5.97 (No. 45 overall)
• EPA/Play: -0.02 (No. 91 overall)
• Red Zone TD Percentage: 59.38% (No. 88 overall)
• Turnovers: 16 (No. 92 overall)

Despite having an effective rushing attack (No. 15 in non-sack yards per rush, No. 34 in EPA/rush, No. 42 in rushing success rate), Louisville ranks No. 28 nationally in pass play percentage (53.86%). Brohm has typically leaned pass-heavy throughout his play-calling career and it is not producing good results this season.

Louisville enters this game having scored 23 points or less in regulation over three consecutive games. The Cards have only reached 30 points once since September and that was against a 1-10 Boston College team that has the worst defense in power conference football, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. This pass-heavy offense has not reached 300 passing yards since Week 5. The Cards have thrown for 214 yards or less in every game since the big upset win over Miami.

This offense is not playing good football right now — and that’s even before you consider the injuries. Louisville enters the final game heading clearly in the wrong direction on offense.

A balanced defense

Louisville has offensive issues. That is clear. The defense has given this football team some more stable play throughout the season. In year three under defensive coordinator Ron English, this unit did not give up 30 points in regulation until last week’s blowout loss to SMU.

Louisville is much more healthier on this side of the football and has been getting good play all season.

• Points Per Drive: 1.59 (No. 16 overall)
• Success Rate: 39.3% (No. 31 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 4.84 (No. 22 overall)
• EPA/Play: -0.07 (No. 20 overall)
• Red Zone TD Percentage: 58.06% (No. 50 overall)
• Takeaways: 17 (No. 34 overall)

Louisville has played like a top-25 defense all season. Coastal Carolina transfer Clev Lubin (50 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, 5 pass breakups, 53 pressures) and Rutgers transfer Wesley Bailey (37 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 40 pressures) have been terrific additions at defensive end. Linebacker TJ Quinn (77 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3 pass breakups, 2 interceptions) is one of the best in the ACC.

This defense has been hard to score on all season long. The front leads the way with a very good pass rush led by Lubin. Louisville’s secondary has played better than expected for most of the year. This is a solid power conference defense.

Kentucky has a long road winning streak in this series

Back in 2014, Kentucky and Louisville played on Thanksgiving weekend for the first time. Kentucky needed a win to get to a bowl game. Louisville was ranked and enjoying a very good first season under Bobby Petrino 2.0.

An unexpected shootout occurred out at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Cards outlasted the Cats in a 44-40 victory that included a pair of defensive touchdowns for the road team and three touchdown receptions for Louisville star DeVante Parker.

That was the last time that Louisville beat Kentucky in a home game.

The Wildcats pulled off a four-touchdown upset in 2016. Kentucky knocked a nine-win Louisville team out of the Orange Bowl that day. UK also prevented a 10-1 Louisville team from playing for a potential College Football Playoff bid in the ACC Championship by knocking off the Cards as a touchdown underdog in 2023. Kentucky was a small dog in 2021. That game ended in a 52-21 victory for the road team. UK also hammered a two-win Louisville team in 2018.

Under Mark Stoops, UK is 4-1 against Louisville with three outright upsets at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Those wins have come against three separate Louisville head coaches. The Cats typically play very well in this spot.