BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Anatomy of an Upset

I don’t think it’s any secret that if Kentucky can beat Florida on Saturday it will be considered an upset.  You’re going to be hard-pressed to find any “expert” picking the Cats.  But with Florida using their backup QB, an improved Kentucky defense, and a 26-streak that needs to end, some fans have wrapped their minds around the idea that Kentucky could pull off the upset.  But just what will it take for UK to get the job done on Saturday?  Well, if history tells us anything, there are only 2 things that the Cats HAVE to do to win over the Gators.  Below you find the last 13 instances in college football where an unranked team beat a Top 20 opponent.  And below each game I have listed the 2 major categories

2013: Miami 21, #12 Florida 16
3rd Down: Florida: 40%
1st quarter: Miami 14, Florida 6

2013: BYU 40, #15 Texas 21
3rd Down: Texas: 29%
1st quarter: BYU 10, Texas 7

2013: Washington 38, #19 Boise St. 6
3rd Down: Boise St: 42%
1st quarter: Washington 7, Boise St 0

2012: TCU 20, #16 Texas 13
3rd Down: Texas: 27%
1st quarter: TCU 7, Texas 3

2012: UCONN 23, #20 Louisville 20
3rd Down: Louisville: 33%
1st quarter: UCONN 3, Louisville 0

2012: Pittsburgh 27, #18 Rutgers 6
3rd Down: Rutgers: 31%
1st quarter: Pitt 0, Rutgers 0 (Pitt scored 2 plays into 2nd quarter)

2012: Baylor 52, #1 Kansas St. 24
3rd Down: Kansas St: 42%
1st quarter: Baylor 14, Kansas St 7

2012: San Diego St 21, #19 Boise St 19
3rd Down: Boise St: 33%
1st quarter: San Diego St 7, Boise St 6

2012: Arizona 39, #9 USC 36
3rd Down: USC: 45%
1st quarter: Arizona 10, USC 0

2012: Kent State 35, #15 Rutgers 23
3rd Down: Rutgers: 42%
1st quarter: Kent St 7, Rutgers 3

2012: Washington 20, #7 Oregon St 17
3rd Down: Oregon St: 35%
1st quarter: Washington 3, Oregon St 0

2012: Texas Tech 49, #5 West Virginia 14
3rd Down: West Virginia: 42%
1st quarter: Texas Tech 14, West Virginia 7

2012: Iowa St 37, #15 TCU 23
3rd Down: TCU: 33%
1st quarter: Iowa St 16, TCU 7

So, my conclusion for how Kentucky can beat Florida on Saturday boils down to accomplishing 2 things:

1. MUST KEEP FLORIDA UNDER 45% ON 3RD DOWN

-This not only is a confidence booster for an inconsistent defense, but a confidence crusher for a Gator offense with a new QB and it’s own problems.  Kentucky has been terrible for enternity on getting an opposition’s offense off the field, or so it seems.  They can’t let Florida put together 10 and 12 play drives.  When given the chance to get off the field on 3rd and long, the Cats defense must hold strong.

2. MUST WIN THE 1ST QUARTER

-This is especially big because if UK can hold the lead after 1 quarter, the doubt starts to creep in the minds of Florida whether they can be upset.  Plus, at that point, UK will have realized they can play with Florida.  In 12 of the 13 games above, the unranked team LED after 1 quarter.  In the 13th game, Pitt was tied after a quarter and scored 2 plays into the 2nd quarter.  Kentucky must hit Florida in the mouth early.  It is not about hanging around early in the game.  It’s about taking control.  If Kentucky doesn’t do that, they won’t win.