Can the Commonwealth KSR Filly Win the Kentucky Oaks?

Kentucky Oaks contender SImply Joking, via Pat McDonogh : USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images — Kentucky Oaks contender SImply Joking, via Pat McDonogh / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matt Jones and the KSR crew have a little extra skin in the game for the Kentucky Oaks. This week, the radio show announced a partnership with Commonwealth, a racing conglomerate that allows fans to buy shares of horses.

Racing conglomerates are popular among horse racing fans who don’t have the financial means to throw money around like Mike Repole. Unlike some of the others, Commonwealth is allowing folks to invest this week in a filly participating in the Kentucky Oaks, Simply Joking, for $50 a share.

My parents have been a part of conglomerates before. I’ve been to the track on a race day, and even in a $12,000 claiming race, it’s an unprecedented thrill. This ups the ante.

The first question I had when I heard the news: “Does this filly actually have a chance?” Initially, I was skeptical, thanks to one filly.

Good Cheer is the 6-5 favorite, a staggering number for a race of this magnitude, but she deserves it. Trained by Brad Cox, Good Cheer is undefeated in six career starts, with three at her home track of Churchill Downs. It’s going to take a lot to beat Good Cheer, but Simply Joking actually has a chance.

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The filly is trained by Louisville native Whit Beckman and will be ridden by one of the sport’s top jockeys, Florent Geroux. Simply Joking is lightly raced, 2-1-0 in three career starts, all races worth $100k or more. She’s coming off a second-place finish by less than a length in the Fantasy. There’s reason to believe there is still plenty of room to improve.

Here’s what’s most important: This filly is fast. She has posted a 90+ Brisnet Speed Figure in each of her three races. None of her peers has consistently been that fast. Her 96 is the second-best of any horse in the field.

Drawing an inside post at No. 2, Simply Joking will be racing for the lead out of the starting gate. With a clean break, she is well-equipped to start the race on the lead. The ultimate question, can she handle the extra distance?

Simply Joking has 10-1 morning line odds. This filly is not a favorite, but she should be on the lead for a majority of the race, and from there, anything could happen.