College Basketball Weekly: Resume breakdown of one-seed contenders

As College Basketball’s regular season draws to a close, the race for the one-seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament is as close as it’s ever been. NINE teams realistically have a shot to secure a top seed two Sundays from now, and perhaps even more if upsets continue to play out as frequently as they did on Saturday.

So I’m going to spend this week’s College Basketball update on an exhaustive resume breakdown of the contenders vying for a one-seed. (And also give a heads or tails ruling on Mr. Hardaway). Let’s get straight into it.

The DATA

This article is a long and winding road towards figuring out the four most-deserving one-seeds. But every map needs a key. So I put together a slightly-colorful and thoroughly-researched chart of the nine best resumes in the country, as per my evaluation. Below you can find the nine teams I believe can earn a one-seed along with their record and Strength of Schedule (SOS) per KenPom. I also listed the NET ratings for each team and a composite analytics ranking (Comp.) which averages each team’s rank in the NET, KenPom, EvanMiya, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics. Then I listed the best wins and worst losses on each resume along with the Quad One record.

Enjoy! And check the end for my final ranking of these nine resumes.

(Note for wins/losses: Standard = Home, Italic = Neutral Court, @ = Away)

Team	Record	SOS	NET	Comp.	Best Wins	Bad Losses	Q1
Gonzaga	24-3	112	1	1	UCLA, Texas, Texas Tech, St. Mary’s, San Fran(2)	None	8-3
Arizona	25-3	71	2	3.8	@Illinois, UCLA, USC	@Colorado	5-2
Houston	24-4	94	3	4.8	Oregon, Ok. State	@SMU	1-3
Kentucky	23-6	28	4	3.8	@Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama(2), LSU, UNC	None	8-6
Baylor	24-5	15	5	5.4	Kansas, Villanova, Texas, @Iowa St., Michigan St.	Ok. State	11-4
Kansas	23-5	2	6	5.4	Baylor, Texas Tech, Michigan St., @Iowa St.	Dayton	10-4
Duke	25-4	73	9	4.8	Gonzaga, Kentucky, @Notre Dame	UVA, Miami, @FSU	5-1
Auburn	25-4	29	11	10	Kentucky, Alabama(2), LSU	None	7-4
Purdue	24-5	36	12	10	Villanova, UNC, Iowa, Illinois(2), OSU	None	7-4

So with the one-seed encyclopedia at our fingertips, let’s make the case for each of these nine schools as potential one-seeds as of this moment.

Gonzaga

I love to pile on the Zags for playing a bunch of west-coast middle-schoolers as much as anyone, but even despite their 112 SOS and lack of very many decent conference wins, this team is a surefire one-seed. Mark Few’s club only played in five power conference games, but they earned neutral-site wins over Texas Tech and UCLA — who figure to earn top-four or five seeds themselves. They also took care of business in quad one opportunities, going 8-3 while boasting zero sub-top-25 losses.

I could envision a scenario where Gonzaga doesn’t take the overall No. 1 spot, but dropping below the one-line altogether seems unrealistic.

Arizona

‘Zona has the NET (ranked 2nd) and a 25-3 power conference record on its side. The West Coast Wildcats boast an incredibly impressive win away from home with that Illinois victory in Champaign. They also took down fellow Pac-12 powers UCLA and USC once each this season.

Their downfall is a fairly weak schedule outside of their best wins and a recent loss to a bad Colorado team. Just don’t have the volume of big game opportunities that some of the other contenders do, nor have they dominated what solid competition they have faced. Still, win out and a three-loss Power Five champion will be impossible to deny.

Houston

Any weekly reader of these College Basketball posts knows my affection for Kelvin Sampson, and specifically, how impressive his Cougars are this season. Lost their leading scorer and first guard off the bench only to recoup and improve from an efficiency standpoint. Heckuva job by Sampson that should garner Coach of the Year buzz.

However, from a resume standpoint, Houston just doesn’t have the chops of these other teams. They took down two solid power conference programs on neutral courts in Oregon and Oklahoma State, but those wins pale in comparison to what everyone else has to offer. Plus, their losses aren’t terrible but falling to Memphis and SMU ain’t a great look.

Kentucky

UK provides the most perplexing case of any team on that chart. On one hand, their six losses are the most of anyone and Auburn and Duke have head-to-head victories against the ‘Cats. But, the list of wins and how Kentucky wins those games plus their lack of health in several losses makes their case better than it is on paper. Though, on paper, it’s also really strong. ‘Cats are beloved analytically and pounded two of the NET’s top ten (Kansas and Tennessee) by 46 points combined and feature zero non-Quad One losses.

Additionally, Arkansas was their first loss with a healthy roster in conference play. Really, that was TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler’s first games back after a week off, so to say UK was 100% is misleading. For the committee, Kentucky is going to require conversational evaluation more so than just looking at my handy little chart. Just not sure the ‘Cats have any margin for error the rest of the way if they want to beat out these other folks.

Baylor

Baylor’s 6-5 swoon from mid-January to mid-February threw people off of the Bears’ scent. With a third win in a row on Saturday that came at home vs. Kansas, the 2021 champs are right back in the thick of a one-seed hunt. Scott Drew’s boys lead the nation in Quad One wins and post a strong 11-4 record in those games, with the featured wins coming against Kansas this weekend and dominant victories over Villanova and Michigan State.

Behind Gonzaga, I’d give the nod to the Bears for the next-best resume to this point in the season. If Selection Sunday occurred yesterday, my bracket would’ve cloned the 2021 top two seeds in 2022.

Kansas

The Jayhawks are right on Baylor’s heels with 10 Quad One wins to their name. They also possess a 23-5 record against KenPom’s second-hardest schedule. The Big 12 is an animal, man. At the top of the conference standings, you’re splitting hairs between them and Baylor for a one. Really feels like a case where the Big 12 Tourney decides who gets the one and who gets the two. Because I don’t see both or either earning a one-seed.

Lot of folks around here may point to Kentucky’s drubbing of Kansas in Phog Allen as an irrefutable should-be advantage in the seed discussion. I just don’t see it coming down to that. Win the Big 12 and they’re getting a one-seed, regardless of what Kentucky does.

Duke

Duke escaped as the only top-seven team in the AP Poll not to lose on Saturday and they’ll leap to the top of this week’s poll. On the cover of the book, this Duke team seems to have a terrific resume. 25-4 in the ACC, wins over Gonzaga AND Kentucky on neutral courts. Shoo-in for a one-seed, right? Well, not once you read a little deeper into their schedule.

The ACC is horrendous this season, awful, likely the worst conference of the power six. Even the Pac-12 is laughing at ’em! In that terrible ACC, the Blue Devils dropped two home games to Miami and Virginia — who almost certainly aren’t making the NCAA Tournament — and lost to Florida State on the road. FSU is a powerhouse lately, but not this season. They’re outside the top-100 on most major ranking systems.

Closing the book on their body of work, I came away MUCH less impressed with Duke. The great wins, Coach K’s swan-song sorcery and the Blue Devil brand may overcome a lackluster one-seed resume, but in my estimation, Duke isn’t on the level of the others in terms of quality of resume.

Auburn

Computers dislike Auburn more than the good ole’ eye test. The Tigers average out as the 10th ranked team analytically, but I disagree. With wins over Kentucky, LSU and a sweep over Alabama, Bruce Pearl and co. stack up well as far as good wins are concerned. Plus, this is a four-loss power conference team with none of those outside Quad One.

Along with Gonzaga and Baylor, War Eagle is riding to a one-seed perch for the time being. I like their odds of staying up there.

Purdue

Also universally underrated by metrics compared to the others, I like Purdue quite a bit. 24-5 in a loaded Big Ten with a sweep of Illinois and wins over Villanova and North Carolina on a neutral court. I don’t love their losses to Indiana, Michigan and Rutgers — but those are at least three decent, tournament-hopeful teams on the road.

I tend to think their 7-4 Quad One record and plethora of terrific wins give the likely Big Ten champs a strong shot at the last No. 1 seed.

So, with all the data and analysis provided, who would YOUR one-seeds be?

For me, I’m going with Gonzaga, Baylor, Auburn and Purdue at the moment. Though I think Duke will sneak in there, deserving or not. For fun, here’s how I’d rank these resumes 1-9:

Gonzaga
Baylor
Auburn
Purdue
Kentucky
Kansas
Duke
Arizona
Houston

My goodness, 5-8 were really close. But I feel good about my top four. For now.

Lest we forget…

Penny Heads or Tails?

It’s a heads week for Penny and the Memphis Tigers. They rebounded from last Sunday’s loss to SMU to handily beat Temple and Wichita State this week. While we’re on the topic of comparing resumes, let’s dive into the Tigers’ collection of wins and losses.

Memphis is 17-9 and 42nd in the NET with a composite analytics ranking of 36.4. As brutal as the non-conference slate was for Penny, he’s rebounded to get Memphis in a position to compete for an at-large bid down the stretch of the season. It’s also entirely possible they win the AAC tournament with Houston stumbling lately.

If they don’t, wins over Alabama and Houston exceed what most other bubble teams have to offer in the win column. These boys may be dangerous in March.