College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 12

We have reached crunch time. Only two more Saturdays remaining in the college football regular season. It might be SoCon Saturday in the SEC, but there are still a ton of major games on the slate with stakes.

We have a couple of potential playoff elimination races, and conference championship game slots still need to be decided in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12. There is also a heated race in the American Athletic Conference. The penultimate weekend of the 2023 college football season has a chance to deliver the goods.

KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet is here to provide a full preview.

The Slate

Top 10 Games

1. No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State
2. No. 1 Georgia at No. 18 Tennessee
3. No. 21 Kansas State @ No. 25 Kansas
4. No. 7 Texas at Iowa State
5. No. 10 Louisville at Miami
6. No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson
7. No. 22 Arizona at No. 17 Utah
8. SMU at Memphis
9. No. 2 Michigan at Maryland
10. Illinois at No. 16 Iowa

College Football Gambling Corner

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Who plays spoiler?

Georgia and Washington enter Week 12 with unblemished records and nearly have a College Football Playoff invite locked up. However, each will play their toughest road game of the season on Saturday.

Washington’s defense is a problem, and Oregon State has a balanced offense that could dominate the game script on Saturday night at Reser Stadium. The Beavers have a huge opportunity to play spoiler against both Oregon and Washington in the last two weeks before those schools bolt for the Big Ten. Expect an incredible crowd in Corvallis. A loss could eliminate the Huskies from playoff contention and take Michael Penix Jr. out of the Heisman Trophy list.

Down on Rocky Top, Josh Heupel‘s program is fresh off a double-digit road loss to Missouri where the offense sputtered big time. The Vols are now looking at an 8-4 finish unless they can pull off a monster upset in Neyland Stadium. Georgia’s offensive balance should have their way with Tennessee’s defense, but Heupel’s offensive scheme can cause issues. However, they haven’t caused issues for Georgia. Will the Vols get the Dawgs in a letdown moment after Kirby Smart‘s team bulldozed top-10 Ole Miss on Senior Day?

Let’s get wild, Big 12

No conference title race is tighter than the Big 12. This league always finds a way to deliver us some good games in November. There is no shortage of important games this week in a conference filled with parity.

• Texas (6-1) at Iowa State (5-2)
• Oklahoma State (5-2) at Houston (2-5)
• Oklahoma (5-2) at BYU (2-5)
• Kansas State (5-2) at Kansas (4-3)
• Cincinnati (1-6) at West Virginia (4-3)

Texas would lock up a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game with a win in Ames. Kansas State and Oklahoma State each face a potential elimination spot on the road. Is this the best Kansas State-Kansas matchup ever? I believe it is. The rest of the league could have a tough time catching Oklahoma if the other two 5-2 teams drop a road game on Saturday.

Will we see a Red River rematch at Jerry World in a couple of weeks? Week 12 will help determine the close conference race in college football.

College Football Degenerate Under: East Carolina at Navy Under 30.5

Take a seat, Iowa. It’s someone else’s turn.

Over in the American Athletic Conference, Navy (4-5, 3-3) will host East Carolina (2-8, 1-5) in a battle of offenses that rank sub-100 in success rate, EPA/play, and yards per play. Meanwhile, both defenses are playing at a top-50 level.

Expect a lot of punts in Annapolis. Don’t be afraid of the totals in the 30s.

The rest of the college football card

— Louisville can lock up a trip to the ACC Championship Game with a win. Miami is almost in a must-win situation as Mario Cristobal really can’t afford to finish the year at 7-5. We’ve got a big November game in South Florida. The Hurricanes are the second-best team UofL has faced this season. Will the soft schedule finally catch up to Jeff Brohm‘s team?

— SMU at Memphis could be one of the best Group of Five games of the year. Both offenses can absolutely go. Don’t be surprised if the first one to 40 points leaves the Liberty Bowl victorious. Get this contest on your TV screen during the noon window.

— Iowa can lock up a Big Ten West title with a home win over Illinois on Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium. Defense and special teams continue to win games in Iowa City, but backup quarterback John Paddock has given this Illinois offense a lift. If the Illini can score 17 points that could put Iowa in the danger zone.

— Florida (5-5, 3-4) needs a win to get back to a bowl game. That will be difficult with remaining top-10 games against Missouri (away) and Florida State (home). All of a sudden, this defense stinks out loud again, and that could be bad news against a top-10 passing defense. It’s hard to envision Billy Napier surviving longer than year three if he begins his tenure in Gainesville with consecutive losing seasons. A dream year could continue to roll on in CoMo in Week 12.