College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 3

Week 3 officially started on Thursday night when Navy covered as a two-touchdown underdog on the road against Memphis in a game that got wacky in the fourth quarter. The third full Saturday of the season certainly seems light on paper, but these weeks somehow find a way to deliver more times than not.

We’ve got three games on the slate for Friday night before a jam-packed Saturday with a huge noon lineup and two heated rivalry matchups in the prime time window. KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet is your ultimate resource guide for another college football weekend as we’ll dive into the TV schedule, top games, significant matchup previews, and other thoughts about Saturday.

Let’s ride!

The Slate

Top 10 Games

1. No. 11 Tennessee at Florida
2. Pittsburgh at West Virginia
3. No. 14 LSU at Mississippi State
4. No. 15 Kansas State at Missouri
5. No. 8 Washington at Michigan State
6. Minnesota at No. 20 North Carolina
7. South Carolina at No. 1 Georgia
8. BYU at Arkansas
9. No. 7 Penn State at Illinois
10. Louisville vs. Indiana

College Football Gambling Corner

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Tennessee’s House of Horrors

Josh Heupel is off to a crazy good start at Tennessee. The former Oklahoma quarterback and UCF head coach is 20-8 on Rocky Top and ended a long losing streak to Alabama last season. Tennessee is averaging 42.5 points per game since Heupel arrived on campus. Now the Vols must find a way to get another big monkey off their back.

Tennessee beat Florida at home last year for only the second time since 2004. In that same period, the Vols are 0-9 in games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with six losses by double-digits. Even in Heupel’s first season, a 6-7 Florida team ran away with a 38-14 victory in The Swamp. The Vols have to get the Florida monkey off their back. Unfortunately, there are some legitimate worries about Heupel’s veer-and-shoot scheme after eight quarters of football.

Joe Milton III is averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt on 63 throws against Virginia and Austin Peay. The potential NFL Draft prospect with a boatload of physical traits is only 2 of 19 on long throws (20-plus air yards). Hendon Hooker completed 50 passes (41.3% completion rate) of 20-plus yards last season for 2,069 yards (17.1 yards per attempt), 23 touchdowns, and two touchdowns. Heupel’s offense has to hit home runs. Will those occur on Saturday night with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit on the call?

On the other sideline, Billy Napier is 7-8 through 15 games at Florida and desperately needs a big win. Can Wisconsin quarterback transfer Graham Mertz deliver in a big spot when the Gators have to have? No matter if Milton is hitting on big throws or not, this Tennessee offense will score points.

A rivalry game where both sides have legitimate skin in the game. The losing fan base is going to have a minor meltdown postgame. This is college football at its best.

Backyard Brawl returns to Morgantown

From 1943-2011, Pittsburgh and West Virginia faced off on the gridiron every season. The schools are separated by just over 70 miles via I-79 and have played some memorable games over the years, including one of the biggest upsets the sport has seen in recent memory.

The rivalry returned last year and brought immediate fireworks with Pitt grabbing the win with a pick-six late in the fourth quarter. Now the game between two teams and fan bases that aren’t big fans of each other returns to Morgantown for the first time since 2011.

Let’s play some rivalry football.

Expect some pre-game shenanigans, in-game scuffles, and hard-hitting from two teams that are each attempting to recover from non-conference losses to begin the year.

Can the SEC get a ranked win?

The early non-conference results have not been pretty for the SEC. In matchups against ranked opponents, the best league in college football has had much go their way.

• No. 14 Utah 24, Florida 11
• No. 21 North Carolina 31, South Carolina 17
• No. 8 Florida State 45, No. 5 LSU 24
• No. 20 Ole Miss 37, No. 24 Tulane 20
• No. 11 Texas 34, No. 3 Alabama 24

That does not even include ranked Texas A&M falling to unranked Miami last weekend. There have also been some close calls. Things have not gone well for the SEC, but the league has a chance to get a big win this weekend.

Defending Big 12 champion Kansas State is off to a hot start and potentially looks like the top competition for future SEC member Texas in that league. Missouri will host the Wildcats in the noon window on Saturday in a former Big Eight and Big 12 conference matchup. Eliah Drinkwitz is only 19-19 through 38 games in Columbia and could use a big win. The schedule sets up well for the Tigers if they can find a way to knock off K-State at Faurot Field.

Could Mizzou be 5-0 when LSU rolls into town on Oct. 7. Or will Drinkwitz find himself on the hot seat next week? We will find out soon.

Zach Arnett could receive his “welcome to the SEC” moment

Zach Arnett is familiar with this league. The former San Diego State defensive coordinator is now in year four in Starkville, but this is the first time the 37-year-old has run through the SEC gauntlet as a head coach. After fortunately squeezing out a home win against Arizona last week, Mississippi State will face a big challenge on Saturday.

LSU is rolling into Davis-Wade Stadium after dropping 72 points in a win over Grambling last week. The Tigers are attempting to prove that the Week 1 second-half meltdown against Florida State was a fluke. They will have a chance to make an early SEC statement on Saturday.

Through eight quarters, Mississippi State has been surprisingly run-heavy under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, and that likely won’t work against this LSU front. The new-look offense in Starkville will be tested, but the biggest mismatch could be when LSU has the football.

A blowout win seems possible for the Bayou Bengals.

Could be a long day for Spencer Rattler

South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler looks much improved. Over his last five games dating back to last season, the former Oklahoma transfer is completing 73.9 percent of his 37.6 passes per game with four 300-plus yard games. The redshirt senior is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt in this stretch with 13 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Carolina is getting great quarterback play.

Unfortunately, first-year offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains inherited an offense that is awful, awful shape.

South Carolina has allowed a 29.8 pressure rate through the first two games in 2023, but that was magnified when North Carolina recorded nine sacks in a Week 1 win. Elsewhere, six South Carolina tailbacks have combined to average only 2.6 yards per rush on 24 attempts per game. The Gamecocks are putting a lot on Rattler and that could equal trouble on Saturday.

Georgia has allowed only 10 points through two games but only has one sack. That will change on Saturday. South Carolina can only hang with Georgia if Rattler is given time to pick apart Georgia’s secondary. I doubt that happens.

Don’t be surprised if that South Carolina offense has a very long day in Sanford Stadium.

College Football Degenerate Under: Virginia Tech at Rutgers

The degenerate under cashed last week as Iowa needed a defensive touchdown to get to 20 points in a seven-point win over rival Iowa State to claim the Cy-Hawk Trophy. We’re staying in the Big Ten this week for a team that’s already had the degenerate under once.

The Northwestern-Rutgers 38.5 under easily cashed in a 24-7 win for the Scarlet Knights. We’re heading back to New Jersey this week where the total is at 37.5 between Virginia Tech and Rutgers.

The Hokies are dealing with significant injuries at quarterback and wide receiver, while their ground game only produced 99 yards on 45 carries from their top two tailbacks in two weeks. Meanwhile, Rutgers is averaging just over 3.0 yards per rush with a completion percentage just over 50.

Expect a lot of punts at SHI Stadium.

The rest of the college football card

— Illinois hosts Penn State in FOX’s noon game as the Nittany Lions are attempting to prove that they are a legit College Football Playoff contender. However, the Illinois offense could be the unit to watch. The Illini are No. 15 in offensive success rate as Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer has impressed at quarterback. A surprising shootout could occur in Champaign.

— Two fan bases that don’t like each other very much will meet up in Indianapolis for a rare non-conference game between Indiana and Louisville. The Hoosiers have been playing surprisingly good defense (No. 28 in yards per play, No. 12 in passing success rate) under new defensive coordinator Matt Guerrieri. Louisville is posting 47.5 points per game on 8.1 yards per play. Styles make fights in college football. The Indiana offense and Louisville defense could determine the winner in UofL’s second game in an NFL stadium in three weeks if the other two units get caught in a stalemate.

— Early reports indicate that Alabama will start Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at quarterback against USF. The Tide will roll in Tampa, but Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees are searching for answers. Next week’s home game against Ole Miss looms large.

— Defense-heavy Minnesota will face offense-heavy North Carolina in one of the most odd non-conference matchups of the season. These two teams are playing different sports. This is a fascinating matchup in Chapel Hill.

— The SEC also has some sneaky non-conference matchups this week. Arkansas will be without star tailback Rocket Sanders against BYU, and Ole Miss will host plucky underdog Georgia Tech. Neither can afford to sleepwalk at home. A loss to either would be another data point to add to the building consensus that the SEC is down big-time in 2023.

— Houston lost to Rice last week. That was not a good development for Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars will host TCU Saturday night in the program’s first Big 12 conference game. Holgorsen needs some wins quickly, or we could have a hot seat situation brewing despite a big buyout.

— Deion Sanders and Jay Norvell have exchanged public barbs this week in preparation for this rivalry matchup. “Big Noon Saturday”, “College GameDay”, and “First Take” all made the trip to Boulder to Coach Prime. All eyes in the after dark window will be on the Buffaloes. No matter what you think of Sanders, his presence has been great for college football.

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