ESPN's FPI predictions for every game on Kentucky's schedule

Football season is (blissfully) just around the corner, and in turn, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is churning out numbers. The FPI’s game-by-game predictions are now available, and according to the predictive rating system, your University of Kentucky Wildcats are favored to win nine of their twelve games this season.

The FPI gives Florida and Ole Miss the edge over Kentucky on the road and only gives the Cats a 16.7% chance of knocking off defending national champions Georgia at Kroger Field. As you might expect, the games Kentucky has the best chance of winning are vs. Youngstown State, Northern Illinois, Miami (OH), and Vanderbilt. In fact, the FPI gives Kentucky a greater chance of beating Vanderbilt (94.8%) than it does the Miami RedHawks (93.3%). Ouch, Commodores.

Date	Opponent	Kentucky chance of winning (FPI)
Sept. 3	Miami (OH)	93.3%
Sept. 10	at Florida	48.9%
Sept. 17	Youngstown State	98.2%
Sept. 24	Northern Illinois	95.1%
Oct. 1	at Ole Miss	40.1%
Oct. 8	South Carolina	76.5%
Oct. 15	Mississippi State	63.0%
Oct. 29	at Tennessee	52.6%
Nov. 5	at Missouri	70.1%
Nov. 12	Vanderbilt	94.8%
Nov. 19	Georgia	16.7%
Nov. 26	Louisville	70.9%

Kentucky No. 18 in FPI rankings

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Kentucky’s FPI is 12.0, which ranks 18th in the country, seventh in the SEC.

Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Kentucky’s projected record is 8.2-3.9. The FPI gives Kentucky a 97.6% chance of winning six games to become bowl eligible for the seventh straight season, but only a 5.9% chance of winning the SEC East. Time to prove that machine wrong once and for all.