How Kentucky Wins the Gator Bowl  

Bowl games can be divided into two categories. In other words, there are normally two approaches that programs bring with them to the bowl site.

The first is a “Spring Game” mentality. This is when a team is down many starters due to portal entries or early NFL departures. Programs are a mere shell of themselves in the postseason and play with the effort and intensity that can be seen in a spring game.  

It can also be linked to teams that experienced a down or disappointing season and are at the bowl to have fun then go home. Other times boredom and/or complacency can lead to the Spring Game mindset. This blasé approach typically leads to uninspired play and an L.  

The second frame of mind can describe the participant’s “Super Bowl” mentality. Kentucky has fit this description at times in recent history. The players and coaches are locked in, and the actual game is incredibly important to all involved parties. Distractions are at a minimum. Players play with a purpose or meaning. Discipline and motivation are also at a premium. This particular mindset has unfortunately decreased as of late, even in the regular season. The “Super Bowl” teams win at a higher rate than the “Spring Game” versions.  

For me at least, that pretty much sums up bowl season outside of the four-team playoff. Approach and the “Care Meter” lead to wins and losses. The aftermath brings on unjustified conference chest bumping from the victors. Scoreboard pictures from the happening litter facilities and social media pages across the nation, especially if a lower team defeats a program with a recognizable logo.  

This brings us to Kentucky and Clemson. The Wildcats have displayed multiple personalities in 2023. The “Good Wildcats” beat up on Florida and topped Louisville in the Governor’s Cup. Maybe Mississippi State can be added to this grouping.  

The “Just Good Enough” ‘Cats struggled with, but eventually wore down, Vanderbilt and a host of non-Power Five foes. The “Bad ‘Cats” lost to a not-so-good Shane Beamer team — again. It also failed to pounce on multiple opportunities to go win the game in home night matchups vs. Missouri and Tennessee. A couple of butt whoopins also occurred against the Tide and Dawgs.  

So, which Kentucky team will show up in Jacksonville for the noon kickoff against the Clemson Tigers on Dec. 29? Heck if I know. Dabo’s squad will be without a plethora of starters and contributors. The portal and NFL departures have really added up for the national champs from years back. But, there’s a bunch of talent and pride that will wear the orange helmets. From the outside in, the Tigers could be playing their version of a wintertime spring game. But, we’ll see. Clemson won a bunch of games to close the season.  

I have to make a confession. Kentucky-Clemson will mark the first bowl season snap that I’ve consumed so far. My focus is limited these days, so I choose to follow the FCS Playoffs — go Jackrabbits — and high school state championship games from all over the nation. But, I’m all in on this one.  

Phoenix Stevens is my man. The KSR Intern has helped me through struggles and difficult circumstances. He is co-writing this article with me and will provide a more detailed analysis of the two teams going forward in this post.  

OFFENSE 

One of the main issues with previewing any bowl game is that there are so many opt-outs and injuries that the rosters almost look completely different. However, that isn’t really the case for Kentucky. The ‘Cats will almost be at 100% against Clemson. UK will have nine of their 11 starters on offense, as they’ll likely be without offensive linemen Kenneth Horsey and Jeremy Flax.

The Tigers will be without several key defensive players, so Kentucky should have a significant advantage moving the ball. Projected first-rounders Nate Wiggins (CB) and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB) headline the list of players who won’t be active against Kentucky. The Gator Bowl could be a high-scoring affair. 

If you remember last season’s bowl game, Kentucky was skunked by Iowa with Vince Marrow calling the plays due to the firing of Rich Scangarello. In addition, Destin Wade started at QB on that (forgettable) day. Just a complete mess. But, the script is flipped come this bowl season. Kentucky has an offensive coordinator and practically every offensive starter. The ‘Cats should be firing on all cylinders. 

Be the Good Kentucky: Goals on Offense

Ray Davis and Kentucky need to get 100 yards on the ground. They need to establish their ground-and-pound identity that has worked for them in the past. Ray Davis is Kentucky’s best skill position player (and probably UK’s best player overall), so Liam Coen needs to feed the hot hand. Let Ray Davis make more history. 

Kentucky needs to take care of the football. Despite Clemson being out several key defensive contributors, the Tigers are a highly motivated and talented defense with depth. All that is to say that the ‘Cats will be matched up against an elite defense. Devin Leary must make good decisions with the ball and ball carriers need to move with the ball securely. Play smart and with good technique. Let’s aim for one or less turnovers. 

DEFENSE 

Unfortunately, the ‘Cats are missing quite a few pieces on the defensive side of the ball. The good news? UK shouldn’t be missing too many starters, if any. The bad news? There are a fair amount of depth pieces that will be missing against Clemson. Just to name a few, Martez Thrower (LB), Keaten Wade (Edge), and Jalen Geiger (CB) will all be out on Friday.

This could be bad news as Clemson offensive coordinator Garrett Riley will be looking to expose the holes in Kentucky’s defense. If you remember how many fits Brad White had with containing Tennessee’s offense, then you can expect more of the same against the Tigers. 

Just like the Volunteers, the Tigers run a fast-paced offense that likes to use every square inch of the field. QB Cade Klubnik will want to pick apart Kentucky’s spotty pass defense for easy completions. Then, in typical Riley play-calling fashion, something spectacular will be drawn up and the whole defense will be left with their head scratching as the Tigers convert on 3^rd & 23. It’s almost inevitable. With Kentucky’s depleted defense and Clemson’s high-powered offense, it’ll be hard to stop them. But, they can be limited. 

Be the Good Kentucky: Goals on Defense

Hold Cade Klubnik under 250 passing yards. I know that could be a tall task given the circumstances, but Clemson has actually struggled to pass the ball in some games. They might even heavily favor the run against Kentucky. But, if Klubnik gets hot against Kentucky, it could be a long day for the UK defense. 

All 11 hats must rally to the ball and play with a sense of urgency. Kentucky is fortunate enough to have gone against a fast-paced team in Tennessee to prep them for the Gator Bowl. Clemson has better athletes than Kentucky. So, the ‘Cats need to gang tackle and rally to the ball. The Tigers will get the ball out quickly. Bodies need to be flying around with high intensity and a high motor.   

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Now, special teams have been a very spotty part of Kentucky’s game. Field goals and extra points? Near perfect. Punting on the other hand? Not so much. Alex Raynor has been tremendous while Wilson Berry has been not-so-tremendous. Special teams have been quite the roller coaster. After all, if Missouri doesn’t convert and score off of that fake punt, where does the season stand? Sorry for the bad memories, but you get my point. Anyways, moving on… 

We’ll start with the good stuff, the field goals and extra points. Kentucky has been solid when it comes to getting those freebies. Raynor may be Kentucky’s most consistent player, regardless of position. His accuracy is near perfect. The senior is 43-44 on extra points, and his only missed field goal was from 53 yards out against Tennessee. Mark Stoops will love to have that guy suited up against Clemson. 

Then, the punting. It hasn’t been great. Whether it has been short kicks or bad placement, punting has been an issue. It’s hard to put all the blame on Wilson Berry simply because I’m no kicking expert. Regardless, Kentucky can’t afford any blunders against Clemson. It’ll be hard enough to take down the Tigers. There’s no room for unforced errors. 

Be the Good Kentucky: Goals on Special Teams

I already mentioned this briefly, but there is absolutely no room for unforced errors. Another thing, it is a bowl game after all, so both teams will be playing with nothing to lose. You have to expect some trickery in the back of your mind if you’re Mark Stoops. With Dabo Swinney at the helm for Clemson, he could be looking for a fake punt at any moment. Oh, and a Barion Brown house call would be ideal.  

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?  

A win would get the ‘Cats to the 8-win threshold, which is the number of wins that many predicted. It would also ease some, not all, the frustrations from a vastly inconsistent and at times disappointing season. Yes, the Louisville win was nice, but there were cultural issues that still need to be addressed going forward.  

Can the Wildcats play with the same fire, discipline, and execution as they did vs. Florida and Louisville? We’ll see. Will UK show the failure to launch into prosperity by not sealing the deal when game-winning situations occur like they did against Missouri, South Carolina, and Tennessee? We’ll see. Will Clemson roll the ‘Cats like Alabama and Georgia? Again, we’ll see. I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen. There’s not an outcome that would surprise me with this team.  

Clemson’s strength and depth will be down. But, Dabo has built an SEC program in the ACC. The Gator Bowl should be an opportunity for Kentucky to add another trophy to its case in the Joe Craft Football Training Center. IF, and only if, the Good Kentucky shows up. If not, then the long offseason will get longer.