"Next Season" has new meaning for Kentucky and John Calipari

Throughout the John Calipari Era, Kentucky fans have been able to comfort themselves after tournament losses by simply looking ahead. “Next season” has become a familiar refrain in Big Blue Nation as top-ranked recruiting classes provide hope for the future and a blank slate if needed. For most of the Calipari era, especially early on, that formula has worked.

The best example is ten years ago when Kentucky lost in the NIT and 15 hours later, Julius Randle announced his commitment, completing what was then the No. 1 recruiting class of all time. A year later, Andrew and Aaron Harrison’s return for another season pumped life into the fanbase after the loss to UConn in the national championship game and may have been the only thing to keep John Calipari from going to the NBA. Since then, the days of Kentucky “reloading” instead of “rebuilding” with elite talent have become fewer and farther between, and the results have followed. Kentucky is 2-5 in the postseason over the last three years, four if you count the one when COVID shut everything down.

“Next season” feels like it has a new meaning as we sort through the pieces of Kentucky’s 2022-23 campaign and what lies ahead. Even a year ago, Oscar Tshiebwe‘s return lifted spirits in the wake of the first-round loss to Saint Peter’s; looking back, it felt like the only thing that could pacify fans’ frustrations with Calipari and the direction of the program. That said, the bar remained high: Final Four or bust. Kentucky fell well short of it, losing to Kansas State in the second round on Sunday. The Cats avoided the worst-case scenario of another first-round exit, but the alternative isn’t much better, especially when nobody was surprised by it.

On Monday, John Calipari was already moving on to “next season,” visiting five-star signee Justin Edwards and teasing an international trip this summer on his radio show. Fittingly, he declined to give more details only for assistant coach Chin Coleman to spill them in the final segment. In July, Kentucky will represent Team USA at the GLOBL Jam in Toronto. For a young team, it’s an excellent opportunity to bond and get a head start on the season; however, considering how little the Bahamas trip ultimately helped the 2022-23 team, it rings a bit hollow.

On paper, “next season” could resemble Calipari’s return to form. The incoming recruiting class is full of the five-star freshmen he typically does best with. Add in complementary pieces like Antonio Reeves, Chris Livingston, and whatever intriguing options surface in the transfer portal and the roster looks more like an early Calipari-era one than the ones we’ve seen in recent years. Oscar will likely be gone, but given the off-court disconnect between him and Calipari this season, maybe that’s for the best.

Even if the roster makeup gets you up off the mat, other factors make “next season” feel like a reckoning. One, those five-star freshmen will still be freshmen and therefore need time to develop, which is not easy in the pressure cooker that is Kentucky Basketball. Two, roster management hasn’t exactly been Calipari’s strength as of late. Right down to the final game, he was experimenting with lineups. What good are the pieces if you can’t find the right way to put them together? Style of play doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon, even if the rest of college basketball evolves around us.

The Cats will be put to the test early and often; right now, Kentucky’s 2023-24 schedule includes Kansas (Champions Classic), Michigan (Rupp Arena), Gonzaga (Rupp Arena), North Carolina (CBS Sports Classic), an unannounced ACC opponent in the all-new ACC/SEC Challenge, Notre Dame (neutral site, unconfirmed), and Louisville, all ahead of a brutal SEC slate. Coming off yet another disappointing year and terrified of it becoming the norm, fans will be more anxious than ever for success and ready to pounce on missteps; with a young roster and loaded schedule, they are inevitable, making for a weary November and December.

Then there’s the issue of Calipari himself, who continues to put more and more distance between himself and the media. Fourteen years into his tenure, covering Kentucky Basketball feels like an exercise in smoke and mirrors. Calipari says he still loves his job and accepts the pressure and high expectations that come with it; however, with dwindling results and mixed messaging, it feels like he’s shouting it into the wind.

All that said, if there’s one thing John Calipari loves, it’s proving people wrong. He is at his best with a grudge, whether or be Rick Pitino or the media. If he uses this offseason to regroup and address the issues facing the program (roster makeup, management, messaging, personnel), “next season” could get everything back on track, or at the very least, pave the way for an amicable divorce.

Whenever John Calipari leaves Kentucky, he will leave the program better than when he got here and an indelible impact on the community. Few have understood and embraced the job as well as he does, which is why the current state of affairs is so depressing. Moving on from this season to the next is really hard when the program seems stuck.

“Next season” could be a lot of things, but right now it feels less like hope and more like an ultimatum.