Bracketology Roundup: Kentucky vs. North Carolina or Wisconsin in First Four?

MrsTylerKSR

Kentucky’s Quad 1 win over Mississippi State bumped the Cats into the NCAA Tournament field in the eyes of most bracketologists. Kentucky is either among the “Last Four In” or one of the “Last Four Byes” in the latest NCAA Tournament projections. TeamRankings.com sets Kentucky’s chances of making the field at 67.9%; Bart Torvik goes a little higher at 69.8%.

We’ll discuss Kentucky’s road ahead in a second, but first, here’s a roundup of where the Cats stand in the eyes of the pundits. As you’ll see, a few of them are salivating over a potential First Four showdown vs. another marquee program.

ESPN

Joe Lunardi moved Kentucky back into the field after the win at Mississippi State. In this morning’s update, he pits Kentucky against North Carolina in the First Four, a storyline you know the Selection Committee will chase if appropriate. The winner advances to face 6-seed Iowa in Columbus in the South Region. Alabama is the No. 1 seed in that region.

CBS Sports

Jerry Palm has Kentucky as the top 11-seed, which means they would avoid the play-in games. He pits Kentucky vs. 6-seed Saint Mary’s in the first round in Columbus in the East Region.

Here are the teams around Kentucky on Palm’s seed line. Note: it doesn’t include the teams that didn’t make the cut. Palm’s First Four Out are North Carolina, Wake Forest, New Mexico, and Penn State.

USA Today

USA Today’s panel of Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg, and Erick Smith also gave Kentucky a bye. The Cats are an 11-seed in the West Region facing 6-seed Iowa in Denver.

The Athletic

Brian Bennett goes with a different marquee matchup in the First Four: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin. The winner would advance to play 6-seed San Diego State in the first round in Des Moines in the West Region. He couldn’t help but slip in a mention of The-Game-That-Must-Not-Be-Named in his write-up.

“Our cut-line situation is sure to raise some eyebrows this week. Kentucky is back in the First Four, thanks to a Quad 1 win at Mississippi State, and is matched up in Dayton against Wisconsin. Have those two teams ever played in the NCAA Tournament? (Sorry … we just blacked out for several hours).”

Bracketville

Bracketville has the most optimistic projection for the Cats. Kentucky is a 10-seed in the East Region in this bracket, facing 7-seed Providence for the chance to play 2-seed Texas.

Kentucky’s Road Ahead

To stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation, the Cats need to just keep winning, or, as John Calipari would say, “Refuse to Lose.” Tomorrow’s game vs. Tennessee would obviously help matters considerably. In terms of resume value, it’s the biggest game left on the schedule, followed by the regular-season finale at Arkansas. Win that and you’re probably in barring a loss to Vanderbilt; you could maybe even avoid the First Four play-in games.

Kentucky is currently No. 39 in the NET Rankings. The Cats are 2-7 in Quad 1. If Texas A&M (NET 31) moves up just one spot in the NET, the win over the Aggies last month will move up to Quad 1.

Here is the rest of Kentucky’s schedule and where each game sits on the team sheet. Auburn needs to stay in the NET Top 30 to keep that game in Quad 1.

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad
02/18/2023	Tennessee	3	Quad 1A
02/22/2023	at Florida	51	Quad 1B
02/25/2023	Auburn	27	Quad 1B
03/01/2023	Vanderbilt	91	Quad 3
03/04/2023	at Arkansas	21	Quad 1A