Kentucky can't dig itself into early holes in the NCAA Tournament

Kentucky found itself down 8-1 in the first two-and-a-half minutes of Friday’s game against Texas A&M. After Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham came in, they were only down six at halftime. Yes, the ‘Cats eventually lost by 10, but to knowingly put the team at risk of falling into a hole they must climb out of could very well come back to bite the Wildcats in the Big Dance.

It doesn’t matter who starts, it matters who finishes. The famous words of John Calipari ring louder now than they ever have before as Kentucky’s two projected lottery picks (high ones at that), serve as the 6th and 7th men in the rotation.

On one hand, it is incredible that Calipari has that kind of firepower to come in fresh off the bench and provide a scoring park. On the other hand, they often enter the game with a scoring deficit to climb out of.

But don’t listen to me (or the many opposing coaches who have echoed the same thing), let’s look at the numbers.

Total Plus-Minus All Season

Player	Plus/Minus
Reed Sheppard	380
Antonio Reeves	277
Rob Dillingham	245
Tre Mitchell	184
Justin Edwards	158
Adou Thiero	78
DJ Wagner	24
Ugonna Onyenso	-11

The plus/minus stat can be very deceiving in a single game, however over the course of a season, it serves as a fairly good indicator of how well teams play while that player is on the court. Looking at Kentucky’s top eight players in terms of possessions played (minimum 700), four of the bottom five players on the list are starters.

That is not to begrudge these guys. They each bring a unique skill set to the table and have played valuable roles all season long. I suspect they will continue to make big plays in the NCAA Tournament. However, collectively, they have the lowest plus-minus rating on the team, and starting each game with all of them on the floor often finds Kentucky down early, which is, you know, not ideal.

The best lineup

Alabama Head Coach, Nate Oats, said when Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves, and Justin Edwards are on the court at the same time, Kentucky is impossible to guard. These four were on the floor together for less than two minutes against Texas A&M on Friday. Part of that was due to foul trouble, but part of it was due to…I don’t really know why.

Historically, Calipari usually whittles his rotation down to seven, maybe eight guys by tournament time, with his best players getting the lion’s share of the minutes. While Sheppard, Dillingham, and Reeves tend to garner the most minutes overall, the 10-plus possessions they sit on the bench at the beginning of the game are often costly.

DJ Wagner told reports after the Marshall game he truly believes there are seven starters on this team, and that he doesn’t even consider himself a starter. Perhaps that was media talk, but for as close as these players are, and how much they support each other, Calipari seems hell-bent on not messing with the confidence of season-long starters by having them come off the bench.

Nothing is likely to change now. Even in a win-or-go-home scenario that is the NCAA Tournament, Cal’s stubbornness likely won’t succumb to analytics at this point, and maybe that’s a good thing. His instinct has served him well for a long time so here’s hoping he is right again. However, the ‘Cats need to find a way to avoid getting into big deficits early now that “the real stuff” has begun.