Kentucky In Danger of Worst Conference Home Season Under Calipari

by: Bryan the Intern02/17/23BryantheIntern

kentucky-danger-worst-conference-home-season-john-calipari-era-sec — LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - FEBRUARY 07: Jalen Graham #11 of the Arkansas Razorbacks against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on February 07, 2023 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

In the early stages of the John Calipari era, the one almost sure thing for Kentucky Basketball was dominance at Rupp Arena. It took the program four seasons to even lose a single home game and they lost only three SEC games at home in the first seven seasons of Cal’s tenure. That includes five undefeated seasons at home.

But since the 2018 season, Kentucky has only recorded one undefeated conference home season (2022) and has lost multiple games in 2018, 2021, and now 2023. It’s just no longer a foregone conclusion that SEC teams wilt under the Rupp Arena pressure.

Even more concerning is that the games Kentucky is winning are no longer comfortable wins. Take a look at the combined margin of Kentucky against its opponents in SEC play under Calipari. This includes wins and losses:

2015: 9-0 (UK +21.0 points)
2016: 9-0 (UK +20.7 points)
2012: 8-0 (UK +17.9 points)
2017: 9-0 (UK +17.9 points)
2011: 8-0 (UK +15.9 points)
2022: 9-0 (UK +14.5 points)
2010: 8-0 (UK +14.1 points)
2019: 8-1 (UK +13.8 points)
2014: 7-2 (UK +9.1 points)
2013: 8-1 (UK +8.9 points)
2018: 7-2 (UK +7.3 points)
2020: 8-1 (UK +6.4 points)
2023: 4-2 (UK +2.2 points)
2021: 4-4 (UK +1.5 points)

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This season, in six conference games, Kentucky has only outscored its opponents by 14 points. The four wins have come by an average margin of seven points per game. In the seven seasons in which Kentucky went undefeated in conference play, the WORST margin of victory average on any of those teams was 14 points per win, over double what this current team has.

Kentucky has three remaining home games, two of which are very losable and Vanderbilt isn’t a pushover this season. If Kentucky drops one of those games, we very well could be looking at the worst home conference season in the Calipari era. This year the fans have brought it for home games. You cannot complain the atmosphere hasn’t been there for the Cats, despite the team not bringing it for much of the year.

But the reality is Rupp Arena just hasn’t been the guaranteed win that it used to be. When we start seeing that happen again, it will be a nice first step to getting this program back on track.