Kentucky Football’s Goals Vs. Mississippi State 

Kentucky had a rough October. The Cats suffered three consecutive losses to a trio of ranked teams. Recent outcomes have deflated the Big Blue Nation’s lofty preseason dreams. Mississippi State is up next. Starkville has been where the Wildcats’ aspirations for a victory have gone to die.

UK currently has a 0-6 losing streak at the Bulldogs’ home field. Many of those L’s haven’t been exactly competitive. Sitting at 5-3, it could be argued that Saturday is a must-win for Mark Stoops. Heck, aren’t they all? Opportunities to get right are quickly diminishing. Let’s get into it.

OFFENSE

The passing game found its way onto Kroger Field against Tennessee. The run game did not. UK will need both to secure its sixth victory. The Bulldogs have taken a dip on both sides of the football. Its defensive decline is actually more surprising than the offensive slide since the new head coach is the prior defensive play-caller.

Opponents are scoring 26 points per game against the Bulldogs’ 3-3-5 scheme. MSU is ranked 11th in the SEC after allowing 373 yards per outing. Once known for creating havoc, the Dogs have recorded 20 QB sacks and 46 tackles for loss. Both numbers show a decline from previous seasons.

The Bulldog pass defense is giving up 239 yards per contest to go along with 135 on the ground. In all, Coen’s unit will have an opportunity to build off an encouraging performance vs. Tennessee. The Cats faced highly-ranked defenses in October. That’s not going to be the case on Saturday night. MSU presents a chance to put it all together. But, it’s not going to be easy. It never is in Starkville.

Miss State has two absolute dudes at linebacker. Jett Johnson and Nathanial Watson have combined for 164 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, 11.5 QB sacks, and 42 QB pressures in 2023. Johnson is the SEC’s top tackler; Watson sits right behind at two. UK will need to game plan to counter two of the league’s peskiest defenders. Let’s get into goals.

Fast Start

Mississippi State is 4-4, 1-4 in conference play. Times are desperate, but not yet dire, for first-year head coach Zach Arnett. After watching the Cats’ recent struggles, the MSU faithful likely consider Kentucky to be one that the Bulldogs can get at home, especially at night. Thus, all those cowbells will be loud, and fans will be well-hydrated for the 7:30 kickoff. The Cats must start fast to quiet the home crowd. A slow first quarter could lend the home team momentum and confidence.

Continue Passing Game Growth 

The play of Devin Leary and his supporting cast impressed many, me included, against Tennessee. Continuing that efficiency level would go miles in the effort to win an elusive SEC West road game. Passing for 250 yards is the goal here.

DEFENSE

This is new territory. The ever-consistent Kentucky defense under Brad White was anything but that in October. The Cats have fallen to 10th in the SEC by giving up 363 yards and 25 points per game. Deficiencies and limitations were exposed against Georgia and later taken advantage of vs. Tennessee and Missouri. Tackling and run fits have been a problem. Pass defense is a mere shell from prior years. I’m afraid that what we’ve recently seen could be what we get for the remainder of the season. But, and there’s always a but, the three October opponents all presented potent offenses. MSU does not, at least on paper.

Mississippi State’s Air Raid is no more following the heartbreaking loss of legendary head coach Mike Leach; may he rest in sweet peace. The transition year hasn’t yielded a great deal of positive results. MSU is ranked last in the SEC by scoring just 25 points per game. The Dogs run for 156 and pass for 198 yards per outing.

The question of the week is which quarterback UK will see on Saturday night. If I were to guess, the answer would be all the healthy ones. Mike Wright has started the last two contests. Wildcat fans became familiar with Wright after he torched the Cats as the Vanderbilt quarterback. His presence will bring on anxiety. Will Rogers has thrown for miles of passing yards. He’s been injured, so we’ll see. There’s even a true freshman who has been mentioned.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, MSU will try to run the football. RB Jo’Quavious Marks is a Dude, but has been injured and missed the Auburn game. Mike Wright is the team’s second-leading rusher. Let’s get into goals.

Tackle

Pretty self-explanatory. Far too many missed tackles against Tennessee. This problem occurred along all three levels. That can’t carry over to Saturday and expect to win. This Miss State offense isn’t exactly on the same level as UK’s previous three opponents. An inefficient effort and performance this week would indicate issues that are much deeper than can be seen on the surface.

Get Off The Field

Uncharacteristic is the only term that I can come up with to describe the 2023 Kentucky defense. The Cats have been an upper-echelon SEC unit against the pass and on third down under Brad White. That has not been the case this season.

Opponents are throwing for 250 yards per game, which ranks 10th in the SEC. Third downs have been a backbreaker for this group as well. The Wildcats are giving up 44% on the money down, which is good, or bad enough, for 13th in the conference. The defense can’t get off the field, which is limiting offensive possessions. These two stats are small sample size that paints the picture of a bizarre October. Miss State must be limited to 33% or less on third down to win.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Turnovers and special teams. The age of analytics has modernized college football’s thinking process. But, those two in-game facets remain to be leading causes that impact the win/loss column.

Win The Field Position Game

The Missouri debacle was a perfect example of how not to win the field position game. UK turned the football over three times and had a porous punting performance. This resulted in the Tigers’ average drive-starting field position to be at their own 40. Mizzou began four possessions inside UK territory. Can’t win like that.

Kentucky can’t help Mississippi State beat Kentucky. There is no other option than to be solid and clean in the third phase.

What Does All This Mean?

October sucked. Losing at Georgia wasn’t the worst or unexpected outcome. But, how the Cats were embarrassed and noncompetitive was distressing. Then, Missouri happened. That game disturbed me due to the high number of self-inflicted errors and UK’s refusal to win the game when opportunities arose. The Tennessee defeat was more of the same but masked by a productive pass game.

Kentucky had chances to go win the game, whether on a possession or play. The Cats didn’t rise to the occasion in critical moments that counted the most. Tennessee did. Ballgame. UT and Mizzou were winnable home night games before a packed and eager Kroger Field. Those don’t come around often.

Both situationally and overall, the two losses can be categorized as squandered opportunities.
After three consecutive losses and a challenging slate to end the season, bowl eligibility now enters into a realistic conversation. A victory on Saturday would ease the BBN’s minds.

Make or Break

Uncharacteristic is the only term that I can come up with to describe the 2023 Kentucky defense. The Cats have been an upper-echelon SEC unit against the pass and on third down under Brad White. That has not been the case this season.

Every game is a must-win in the SEC. But, this feels like one that could make or break the season and the program’s current trajectory. Expectations from local, regional, and national media folks were high in the offseason and going into September. A loss in Starkville with Bama rolling in next week could be a breaking point.

Expecting a Wildcat win is logical based on raw data and a neutral field. However, actual on-field matchups are not played on paper or without spectators. Starkville offers a highly hostile environment and is a spot that UK has dropped six consecutive. Even though favored, UK has to seize the victory, especially in critical moments. Situational football has not exactly been a strength.

Saturday night will feature a tough place to play against an eager opponent who badly needs a win for a first-year head coach. This just screams of a night that MSU plays their best football of the season. It just does. I’ve read this book before.

The Cats need to be prepared. Anything less than an all-systems A+ effort will result in a 5-4 record with Nick Saban and a couple of unforgiving opponents on deck. We’ll see.