What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Louisville

Kentucky football is reeling. The Wildcats are 1-5 since September as a bad October has turned into a bad November. Mark Stoops has seen his team crumble whenever adversity has hit this season. Week 12 might have been the low point of the season when Kentucky could not muster more than 14 points against a bad South Carolina defense in a three-point loss.

The vibes surrounding this program are not great at the moment. A big December awaits where Kentucky must record a high hit rate in both transfer portal additions and roster retention, but first, a rivalry game must be played.

Kentucky is putting its four-game winning streak in the Governor’s Cup on the line against No. 9 Louisville. Before toe meets leather, let’s take a look back at what we learned this week in the lead-up to the 35th meeting of this rivalry series.

Opposite directions in close games

Louisville has not beaten Kentucky since Lamar Jackson ran wild in Lexington back in 2017. During the current four-game winning streak for the Wildcats in this rivalry series, there have been four consecutive double-digit wins where the game was decided by the time the fourth quarter arrived. Mark Stoops’ team has held the mental advantage in this.

That does not appear to be the case heading into this year’s matchup.

While Kentucky has shrunk in the biggest moments going 0-3 in SEC games within one possession in the fourth quarter, Louisville has thrived. The Cardinals are 5-0 in one-possession games this season. Louisville’s defense got key red zone stops against Georgia Tech, Indiana, and Miami to seal victories late in the fourth quarter. Brohm’s teams have won a slugfest (13-10 over NC State) and two shootouts (39-34 vs. Georgia Tech and 38-31 vs. Miami) when points were needed to win. Louisville keeps finding ways to win. That is what makes this team dangerous.

When the game is in doubt, Louisville rises to the moment. Kentucky folded in close fourth quarter games against Missouri, Tennessee, and South Carolina. What makes us think something different will happen if a similar situation arrives on Saturday afternoon in this rivalry game?

Kentucky will likely have to do something it hasn’t all season to knock off Louisville on Thanksgiving Saturday.

Louisville’s pass defense has been leaky

Defensive coordinator Ron English is having an outstanding season. The former Purdue defensive coordinator has guided a top-25 defense that ranks No. 5 in rushing EPA/play. Louisville does not give up chunk runs and isn’t afraid to load the box to take away the traditional run game.

That style of play creates some one-on-one matchups on the outside. Most ACC opponents have not had the personnel to take advantage of this aggressive approach from Louisville. But the last two weeks have been a different story.

Virginia and Miami both played backup quarterbacks against the Cardinals. Anthony Colandrea threw for 314 yards on 10.1 yards per attempt in Week 12. Tyler Van Dyke threw for 327 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt. Yards can be made in the passing game.

Unfortunately, Kentucky’s passing offense has not had much success against power conference competition throwing for over 205 yards just once in eight SEC games. However, it’s hard to envision the road team leaving Louisville with a victory without the passing making some plays against a Louisville defense that isn’t afraid to take some risks.

Make Jack Plummer make throws

Louisville is playing complementary football. The Cardinals are running the football with efficiency, getting early leads, and playing strong defense. That has led Jeff Brohm‘s first team at his alma mater to 11-1 (7-1) and a date with Florida State next weekend in the ACC Championship Game. That means not asking too much of their super senior quarterback.

Jack Plummer spent four seasons at Purdue with Brohm before transferring to California. The super senior reunited with his former head coach in 2023 and is having a career year. Plummer owns a strong success rate (47.3%), is completing 65.4 percent of his passes on 9.0 yards per attempt, and will cross the 3,000 passing yards threshold before this season ends. Even with that success, Louisville doesn’t want to turn games over to Plummer.

After consistently fielding one of the most pass-heavy offenses in college football, Louisville is averaging only 28.5 pass attempts per game. The Cardinals do not want Plummer getting north of 30 pass attempts.

The veteran has crossed that number only four times this season. Louisville needed a late red zone takeaway to beat Georgia Tech in Week 1. The Cardinals scored only 13 points in a three-point win over NC State in Week five. Plummer completed only 29 of 52 passes in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh in Week 7. Louisville needed a huge fourth quarter to knock off Miami in Week 12.

Sixty percent of Plummer’s interceptions have come in games north of 35 passing attempts. Louisville does not want to get pass-heavy. If you can stop a good traditional rushing attack, this offense will be forced to get pass-heavy.

Mistakes could come if Kentucky can force Plummer to beat them from the pocket.