What Went Wrong for Kentucky Football in 2023
How did we get here? Kentucky entered the season with high hopes and enters the final week of the regular season with five losses in the last six games. For the second straight year, Kentucky finished below .500 in SEC play. As the SEC expands to add Texas and Oklahoma, Mark Stoops’ program is trending in the wrong direction.
What’s next for Kentucky football? Some of that may change if the Wildcats can beat a top 10 Louisville team on the road, but we have an entire eight-month offseason to deliberate. In the meantime, let’s dive into what exactly is wrong with this program and how it came to be in the simplest terms possible. You can trace most of these problems back to the transfer portal.
Why Expectations were Justifiably High for Kentucky Football
Optimism was high surrounding the Kentucky football program this summer. It wasn’t just this blog that was drinking blue Kool-Aid. From the players and coaches to the SEC and national media, everyone was buying what this program was selling.
The Kentucky offense had clear deficiencies it needed to address in the offseason. On paper, Stoops addressed them all. The most successful play-caller of the last decade returned to the Bluegrass. Kentucky brought in a quality SEC left tackle and two other Power Five offensive linemen to fortify the porous Big Blue Wall. One of only four 1,000-yard rushers in the SEC last fall made the move to Lexington. NIL dollars were invested in keeping talented freshmen wide receivers and recruiting the most proven quarterback on the transfer portal market.
All of the pieces were in place to create the most explosive offense of the Mark Stoops era. The whole has not equaled the sum of its parts.
They Aren’t Who We Thought They Were
This team was built for the passing game to lead the way. “This team will go as far as Devin Leary will take them,” was an accurate preseason projection. He’s completing about half of his passes, which is why the Cats will likely only win half of their games.
In SEC play Devin Leary is completing 54.2% of his passes for 172.4 yards per game, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s only surpassed 200 passing yards against two SEC opponents, Vanderbilt (205) and Tennessee (372).
Leary’s top target is Barion Brown. The sophomore wide receiver has caught 38 of his 76 targets, good for a 50% catch rate. Only five of those receptions are explosive plays of 20+ yards. Brenden Bates, Josh Kattus and Jordan Dingle have seven receptions of 20+ yards in only 34 targets. Three tight ends have more explosive plays with less targets than Brown has receptions. That’s just not good enough.
Why has Leary struggled? There’s a myriad of reasons, but in the simplest of terms: he has been a bad fit for the pro-style system Mark Stoops brought Liam Coen in to operate.
Offensive Identity Crisis
Adam Luckett wrote about it extensively in the Monday Huddle. To reinforce that point, I’d like to share two quotes from Liam Coen following the loss to South Carolina that succinctly summarizes this season’s offense.
1. “I don’t have all the answers right now. I wish I did.”
2. “It was just, we would do something really good in the run game. Then we’d go minus one again. Then we would have a really nice throw and catch, and then we maybe get a ball tipped again and just zero consistency and when it comes to operating, and that’s that’s really disappointing.”
The missing piece of this football program since Stoops took over has always been the passing game. In an attempt to fix that part of the program, primarily via the transfer portal, the pillars on which it was built are crumbling.
Kentucky Lost Their Edge
Matt Jones has used the term “unearned arrogance” to describe this team’s attitude. The way I choose to describe it is that Kentucky lost its edge.
Lynn Bowden punched you in the face, then ran for 284 yards right over your face. This team has guys who might talk it, but don’t walk it. I describe that as “Fake Tough Guy Energy.” They would rather be held back by their friends than actually get into the melee.
Players get in fights. They talk trash. That’s football. In fact, it’s a direct reflection of Mark Stoops. The head coach directly challenged James Franklin after the Cats stuffed Penn State on a fake punt in the Citrus Bowl. This team’s identity does not appear to reflect its head coach.
A Void in Leadership
When the going got tough, Drake Jackson was there to provide reassurance with a stout offensive front to lead the way for Benny Snell. The group was supplemented by other veterans who earned credibility in the locker room by their work ethic, guys like C.J. Conrad Darius West. It was a player-led program.
The success of the 2021 team taught us that Kentucky could maintain its recruit and develop philosophy by incorporating the right kind of transfer portal players. There was a steady presence leading the defense, DeAndre Square, while Wan’Dale Robinson and Will Levis outworked and outperformed their peers to earn respect.
Who are the leaders on this team?
There’s a void that originated with recruiting misses. Luckett dove deeper into the details on KSR+, but the bottom line is that the 19 offensive players signed in the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes and Eli Cox is the only starter. That class produced some quality players, guys like Octavious Oxendine and D’Eryk Jackson, but that is not enough. This group of transfers does not fit the same mold as the successful 2021 regime. Ray Davis made it abundantly clear on social media Saturday night. Tayvion Robinson did it at the same time last year when he essentially quit the team.
Stepping into a leadership role as a newcomer is a challenging balancing act. If Stoops wants to continue to operate a player-led program, it’s imperative that Stoops finds the right fits for his program this offseason. It might not be possible by simply reloading in the portal. A lot will be put on the plates of Deone Walker, Max Hairston and Dane Key.
Pony Up and the Connection to the Transfer Portal Era
Mark Stoops made a mistake by making his pony up comments. Your words are your words. However, I believe the Big Blue Nation made a mistake in thinking those words were a direct shot at fans or an excuse from the head coach. They strike me as a reflection of the attitude of the players within his program.
Kentucky made its hay by taking a few big swings with four-star talents, then identifying hidden gems in high school recruiting and turning them into stars. Luke Fortner only had one other Power Five offer when he committed to Kentucky. He’s in his second year starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chris Rodriguez and Benny Snell combined to have six Power Five offers and they’re No. 1 and No. 3 on Kentucky’s all-time rushing list.
It’s hard to recruit and develop if those recruits don’t stick around to be developed.
The transfer portal and NIL’s influence within it have changed college football. Mark Stoops has tried to stay ahead of it and innovate, however, the pony up comments illustrate that he’s getting a different type of player with a different type of attitude. When you have an offense filled with mercenaries, one should expect so see some put the “me” ahead of the “we.”
The Rub: Mark Stoops’ Mission Statement
Following the loss to Georgia, Kentucky’s first of the season, Mark Stoops vowed his team would bounce back. “I will not tolerate us not responding.”
Responding to adversity was supposed to be the mantra of this team. Without explicitly saying it, he attributes the lack of resolve to last year’s shortcoming in the second half of the season. To nip that problem in the bud, it was the first message he shared in his first team meeting of the year.
He took action to deliberately will character and resolve into this team from day one. The has not happened on a consistent basis.
The defense answered the bell at Mississippi State and South Carolina. In Starkville, they halted a 20-play drive and forced a field goal. In Columbia they only allowed two first downs on six straight possessions. You could not say that about the defense in the Tennessee game.
The Kentucky offense has been even worse in critical situations. Three times Kentucky has been in a one-possession game in the fourth quarter. They lost all three of those games — Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina — by getting outscored 32-3 in the fourth quarter. There were opportunities to win, and the Cats let them slip away.
Stoops identified the problem, addressed it and for the most part, it has not produced results.
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