Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Missouri
Hello. How’ve you been? I’d guess that the majority of you out there have experienced more fun week this week than the Kentucky football players have endured during practice. Mark Stoops was not happy about his team’s embarrassing 51-13 loss to Georgia nor should he be. The Dawgs had their way with the Cats between the hedges.
UK’s downfall last Saturday has several of the BBN faithful shaken to the point of questioning if their beloved Cats can win another game in 2023. That may be a stretch, but I understand the apprehension. The Cats will play six more contests that could go either way. Thus, Saturday’s matchup against Missouri is yet again an ultra-important game for all things blue and white. This seems like that’s the case on an annual basis. I once said that for Kentucky to have a successful season, it must defeat the “Columbias”: South Carolina and Missouri. I stand by that statement.
A great deal will be written and spoken about how badly Mizzou hates Kentucky. For many Tigers, UK is the program’s primary football rival. The BBN doesn’t exactly see things in that same light. My sense is that those in and around the Wildcat program greatly respect Missouri and understand how closely the prior eight contests were decided.
If you’re like me and thinking that UK needs a wake-up call after the Georgia beat down, the Tigers provide exactly that. Video examples of just how fortunate the Cats have been against the Tigers will be shown to coaches and players alike in Columbia and Lexington. Let’s get into this matchup.
OFFENSE
Outside of a wobbly passing game, Kentucky put on an offensive clinic against Florida. The next week’s outing was let’s say, ugly. Penalties, errant throws, dropped passes, and other self-inflicted errors did in the Cats’ offense all the while the Dawgs were lighting up the scoreboard like a Christmas tree.
Something has to give in the throwing portion of Coen’s systemic operation. The Wildcats are passing for just 209 yards per outing which ranks 13th in the SEC. Quarterback Devin Leary has flashed at times, but lacks the consistency and accuracy that he put on display at North Carolina State. His supporting cast hasn’t been very supportive through six games. Leary’s primary pass catchers have dropped a disturbingly high number of catchable throws. We are halfway through the season. My hope remains that Leary and crew can figure it out. But, the clock is ticking and several quality defenses remain on the slate.
I realize that the UK quarterback has justifiably taken the brunt of the blame for the Cats’ passing woes. That is a part of the job and I understand from my time as a Wildcat. But, it’s not all on him. Drops are hurting this team as well. Coen’s play calls haven’t exactly set the QB up for success in terms of completion percentage. Adam Luckett pointed out on the KSR Football Podcast that Leary’s average depth of target or air yards per pass is 11. That’s the fifth highest in the Power 5. For comparison purposes, Will Levis’ average was 8 in 2021 and 8.6 in 2022.
What that means is that Kentucky is taking an overabundance of down-the-field shots that are basically not working. UK has consistently thrown deep passes that frequently result in an incompletion or worse, interception. Receivers aren’t gaining separation from defenders and passes are not commonly thrown in a catchable area. But, the Cats continue to go to that play more and more. The results have generally remained the same.
This often puts the Kentucky offense behind the chains and has led to multiple three-and-outs. Second and 10 is not exactly a friendly down and distance. Leary hasn’t had a great deal of “layup” throws. But to be completely fair and balanced, he’s missed on sure-fire completions with passes that have sailed too high or been behind his pass catchers.
I’ll say it again, the QB has been inconsistent and needs to play better for this team to have a chance down the stretch. But, the passing game woes aren’t just all on him. At one point in the season, Kentucky pass catchers had the most drops of any Power-5 program and Stoops has mentioned routes on more than one occasion. The complete operation, from play calling to execution, requires immediate improvement.
What the Cats have shown they can do well in recent games is run the football. UK exploded for 300+ against Florida and had reasonable success against UGA before the score got too lopsided. Ray Davis is the SEC’s leading rusher (91 attempts, 653 yards, 7.1 YPC, 109 YPG). The offensive line has proven to be able to open holes for the star running back. This portion of the offense is going to be invaluable on Saturday night.
I don’t think the Wildcats’ defense can consistently slow the nation’s top receiver, Luther Burden III, and the Tigers’ rising QB Brady Cook. So, I’m going to break out a term that I haven’t used in 2023: S.L.O.P. This acronym is one that I typed and said a great deal during the Eddie Gran era and in 2021 under Liam Coen. It means Sustained-Long-Offensive-Possessions. This is accomplished by an influential and purposed rushing attack that sustains drives through the end zone, eats up clock, and moves the chains. Let’s get into goals for Saturday.
Rush for 200+ Yards
S.L.O.P. Kentucky runs for 152 rushing yards per contest. That number will need to be north of 200 to win this one. Time of possession will also need to favor the home team on Saturday night. How do you accomplish that? Run the football.
Win the Turnover Margin
The Wildcats are sitting at a +3 margin through six games. Ball security will be at a premium against Mizzou. Stopping that offense will be challenging enough without giving Burden III and company additional possessions via turnovers.
Pitch and Catch (If Not Now, It May Not Happen in 2023)
Missouri is surrendering 245 passing yards per game. This is odd because there are pros in that secondary and at linebacker. As discussed above, if the Cats can’t pitch and catch in this one, it may not happen in 2023.
DEFENSE
Ugly. There’s no other way to describe what went down in Athens. UGA offensive coordinator Mike Bobo took Brad White behind the proverbial woodshed. I didn’t see that coming and I apologize for sharing optimism. I have legitimate defensive questions after Saturday’s bloodletting. Can the Cats cover against the pass? Is the pass rush for real or has it fed off bad offensive lines? When will the safeties play like many, me included, thought in the preseason? I could go on, but for brevity purposes, I’ll stop there.
The Tigers have a potent passing game led by the resurgent signal caller Brady Cook who’s averaging 310 YPG and has completed 72% of his passes. He’s also thrown 13 touchdowns compared to just 2 interceptions. WR Luther Burden III is a certified Dude. The true sophomore has registered 54 receptions for 793 yards and caught 5 TD passes. His 113 YPG average is tops in every category. Left tackle Javon Foster is a pro and protects Brady’s blindside.
The Tigers also run the football at a high clip. Cody Schrader is the SEC’s third-leading ball carrier after posting 577 yards and 6 scores. He’s averaging over 6 yards per run. In all, Mizzou is averaging 33 points and 467 total yards per game.
Missouri is an odd study, much like most teams these days. Game tape is somewhat different than the numbers that you just read. Mizzou beat Middle Tennessee State 23-19 at home and had a close 34-27 win over Memphis at a neutral site. The Tigers rolled Vanderbilt 38-21 before dropping 39 on LSU in a loss. So, which Mizzou team will the Cats see on Saturday night? The one that is averaging 38.5 points against SEC competition or the one that scored an average of 30 against South Dakota, MTSU, Kansas State, and Memphis?
I don’t know the answer to that question. Yes, 8 points isn’t much, but when Kentucky scores 33 per game, it matters. The margin of error in this one is small. Let’s get into goals.
Disrupt Number 3
Much like Brock Bowers, no team can completely take Luther Burden III out of the picture. But, disrupting the star pass catcher and not allowing a free or inside release can marginally interrupt the All-American. Burden III is excellent after the catch and has shown a tremendous ability to bring down 50/50 catches against tight coverage. Limiting Burden III to less than 75 yards would be ideal. Yes, he’s that good. Plan accordingly.
Get after Cook
This will not be easy. Cook is one of the more mobile QBs that Kentucky will have faced through this point in the schedule. Mizzou will roll him and utilize bootleg actions to get the signal caller in space. Cook’s overall efficacy and accuracy have drastically improved from 2022 to 2023. He’s competing 72% of his passes and has shown to be a solid decision maker which is highlighted by his 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions ratio. Also, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC after giving up just 11 QB sacks. LT Javon Foster is a Dude.
Kentucky must get home with QB hurries, pressures, and sacks. This will be a challenging objective to achieve. The number is 4 for the night; Kentucky is averaging 2.3 per game. So, I’m asking a lot here. But, it’s going to take a lot to beat Missouri.
Slow the Run
Kentucky and Missouri are both averaging right around 150 rush yards per game. The Tigers heavily rely on play-action passes. Keeping the visitor’s run yards to around 110 would equate to winning football.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cats were without both returners against Georgia. While that didn’t lead to a disaster, it was close. Wilson Berry’s average seems to be dropping weekly. His 31 yards per boot last Saturday was a problem. But, there were so many other issues that impacted the scoreboard, that not much attention was given to the punt team.
This absolutely cannot be the case vs. Missouri. Field position will play a vital role in the outcome. Kentucky cannot afford to improve the Tiger’s position by surrendering hidden yards in the kicking game.
Kick the Ball
See above.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
Kentucky enters a six-game stretch in which the Cats could win out. Kentucky also enters a six-game stretch in which the Cats could lose out. The margin for error is minuscule from this point forward. UK is favored by the typical three points given to the home team. This means that Saturday’s outcome is a toss-up.
The team with the fewest self-inflicted errors will win this football game. It could be as simple as that. Kentucky can ill afford to have unnecessary penalties. The Cats also cannot continue to pitch errant throws or drop passes that could move the chains. Defensively, Kentucky can’t give up the homerun shot to Missouri’s cleanup hitter Luther Burden III. The star is going to get his catches and is a problem. The Cats can’t aid the All-World pass catcher by allowing free releases from the line of scrimmage.
Can Kentucky bounce back after an embarrassing loss? I sure hope so. Kentucky will need to play a clean game on Saturday in order to win. The Tigers will travel to Lexington full of anger and confidence following a heartbreaking loss to LSU at home. Kentucky should take the field full of piss and vinegar following last Saturday’s dose of humility against the Dawgs.
We’ll see.
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