Kentucky has become cover machine in non-conference play

kentucky-football-mens-basketball-student-tickets-increasing-significantly — Kentucky cheerleaders perform at Kroger Field - Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

Many consider Toledo a live dog entering Saturday’s Week 1 contest against Kentucky. There is also seems to be a perception that the Cats are slow starters against Group of Six opponents. But that hasn’t been the case in over a half-decade.

During Kentucky’s run to 10-3 in 2018, the Wildcats had some issues in the non-conference. Outside of a blowout victory against an awful Louisville team, both Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee jumped out to early leads against the Wildcats. Kentucky failed to cover as a 17-point and 16-point favorite. That made UK 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 matchups with Group of Six programs.

That has been flipped since 2019. Kentucky is 10-0 outright and 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games against Group of Six Opponents.

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Year	Game	Result
2019	Kentucky (-11) vs. Toledo	Cats 38, Rockets 24
2019	Kentucky (-15) vs. Eastern Michigan	Cats 38, Eagles 17
2021	Kentucky (-31) vs. ULM	Cats 45, Warhawks 10
2021	Kentucky (-35) vs. New Mexico State	Cats 56, Aggies 16
2022	Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami, Ohio	Cats 37, RedHawks 13
2022	Kentucky (-26) vs. Northern Illinois	Cats 31, Huskies 23
2023	Kentucky (-25) vs. Ball State	Cats 44, Cardinals 14
2024	Kentucky (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss	Cats 31, Golden Eagles 0*
2024	Kentucky (-19) vs. Ohio	Cats 41, Bobcats

*Game was called early due to weather.

Kentucky has won all of these games by a touchdown-plus and only failed to cover against Northern Illinois in 2022. Ohio won the MAC last season but was forced to play UK down multiple starters. The Cats ended that Week 4 contest with a convincing victory that included 206 rushing yards and 282 passing yards in one of the best games of the year for the offense last season.

Kentucky is currently an 8.5-point favorite for the game against Toledo at BetMGM. This the smallest spread for the Wildcats against a Group of Six foe since the Wildcats lost the season opener to Southern Miss as a six-point favorite in 2016. Toledo finished 2-0 outright against power conference teams last season. The Rockets are 2-6 outright and 4-4 ATS against power conference foes under Candle. The upset wins did not occur until 2024.

The trends lean heavily in Kentucky’s favor heading into this Week 1 matchup.