Updated Sagarin, KenPom predictions for the rest of the season

Kentucky is currently 19-3, 8-1 in conference play. What will that record look like at the end of the regular season? We won’t know that for certain until March 9, but for fun, let’s take a look at the updated Sagarin and KenPom predictions for the rest of the season.

Sagarin Predictor: 27-4, 16-2 in conference play

Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 91.67, sixth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.12. Using those numbers and the ratings of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor still has the Cats finishing the regular season 27-4, the only loss being at Tennessee.

Sat, Feb 9	AWAY	Kentucky 91.67	Mississippi State 88.12
Tue, Feb 12	HOME	Kentucky 94.79	LSU 85.67
Sat, Feb 16	HOME	Kentucky 94.79	Tennessee 91.57
Tue, Feb 19	AWAY	Kentucky 91.67	Missouri 81.07
Sat, Feb 23	HOME	Kentucky 94.79	Auburn 89.57
Tue, Feb 26	HOME	Kentucky 94.79	Arkansas 81.97
Sat, Mar 2	AWAY	Kentucky 91.67	Tennessee 94.69
Tue, Mar 5	AWAY	Kentucky 91.67	Ole Miss 85.5
Sat, Mar 9	HOME	Kentucky 94.79	Florida 84.99

Sagarin also has a “Recent Rating,” which ranks teams based on — you guessed it — their recent play. Based on that metric, Kentucky is the fourth best team in the country right now behind Virginia, Duke, and Tennessee.

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KenPom: 25-6, 14-4 in conference play

Kentucky is currently No. 8 in the KenPom ratings. KenPom also predicts future games and team’s final records, but the projected final records are based on cumulative probabilities, so in some cases — like this one — the numbers don’t match. If you’re like me and saying, ‘Huh?’ let’s take a look.

Here are the individual game projections, with winning percentage in the column on the far right:

Sat, Feb 9	AWAY	Kentucky 72	Mississippi St. 70	59%
Tue, Feb 12	HOME	Kentucky 78	LSU 69	79%
Sat, Feb 16	HOME	Kentucky 75	Tennessee 72	59%
Tue, Feb 19	AWAY	Kentucky 69	Missouri 60	79%
Sat, Feb 23	HOME	Kentucky 76	Auburn 70	72%
Tue, Feb 26	HOME	Kentucky 77	Arkansas 63	90%
Sat, Mar 2	AWAY	Kentucky 71	Tennessee 76	34%
Tue, Mar 5	AWAY	Kentucky 74	Ole Miss 69	68%

So, Kentucky will only lose one more game, with a final record of 27-4, 16-2 in SEC play, right? Not exactly. Because Kentucky’s chances of winning at Tennessee are so low and not much above 50 percent for at Mississippi State and vs. the Vols in Rupp, if you add up the percentages and take the average, the numbers predict Kentucky will win six of its remaining nine games. That would bring the Cats’ SEC record to 14-4 and their overall record 25-6.

In that scenario, the SEC standings would look like this:

Team	Overall	Conference	Projected Conference
Tennessee	21-1	9-0	16-2
Kentucky	19-3	8-1	14-4
LSU	18-4	8-1	13-5
South Carolina	11-11	6-3	10-8
Auburn	16-6	5-4	11-7
Mississippi	15-7	5-4	9-9
Alabama	14-8	5-4	10-8
Arkansas	14-8	5-4	9-9
Mississippi St.	16-6	4-5	9-9
Florida	12-10	4-5	9-9
Missouri	11-10	2-7	6-12
Georgia	10-12	1-8	4-14
Texas A&M	8-13	1-8	4-14
Vanderbilt	9-13	0-9	2-16

That would give Kentucky the number two seed in the SEC Tournament, which would pit them against the winner of Alabama and Florida Friday night at 6 p.m. CT.

How do you think Kentucky will finish the regular season? Pick their final record below:

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