Updated Sagarin, KenPom predictions for the rest of the season

Mrs. Tyler Thompsonover 2 years

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Kentucky is currently 19-3, 8-1 in conference play. What will that record look like at the end of the regular season? We won’t know that for certain until March 9, but for fun, let’s take a look at the updated Sagarin and KenPom predictions for the rest of the season.

Sagarin Predictor: 27-4, 16-2 in conference play

Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 91.67, sixth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.12. Using those numbers and the ratings of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor still has the Cats finishing the regular season 27-4, the only loss being at Tennessee.

Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 91.67 Mississippi State 88.12
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 94.79 LSU 85.67
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 94.79 Tennessee 91.57
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 91.67 Missouri 81.07
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 94.79 Auburn 89.57
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 94.79 Arkansas 81.97
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 91.67 Tennessee 94.69
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 91.67 Ole Miss 85.5
Sat, Mar 9 HOME Kentucky 94.79 Florida 84.99

Sagarin also has a “Recent Rating,” which ranks teams based on — you guessed it — their recent play. Based on that metric, Kentucky is the fourth best team in the country right now behind Virginia, Duke, and Tennessee.


KenPom: 25-6, 14-4 in conference play

Kentucky is currently No. 8 in the KenPom ratings. KenPom also predicts future games and team’s final records, but the projected final records are based on cumulative probabilities, so in some cases — like this one — the numbers don’t match. If you’re like me and saying, ‘Huh?’ let’s take a look.

Here are the individual game projections, with winning percentage in the column on the far right:

Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 72 Mississippi St. 70 59%
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 78 LSU 69 79%
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 75 Tennessee 72 59%
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 69 Missouri 60 79%
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 76 Auburn 70 72%
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 77 Arkansas 63 90%
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 71 Tennessee 76 34%
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 74 Ole Miss 69 68%

So, Kentucky will only lose one more game, with a final record of 27-4, 16-2 in SEC play, right? Not exactly. Because Kentucky’s chances of winning at Tennessee are so low and not much above 50 percent for at Mississippi State and vs. the Vols in Rupp, if you add up the percentages and take the average, the numbers predict Kentucky will win six of its remaining nine games. That would bring the Cats’ SEC record to 14-4 and their overall record 25-6.

In that scenario, the SEC standings would look like this:

Team Overall Conference Projected Conference
Tennessee 21-1 9-0 16-2
Kentucky 19-3 8-1 14-4
LSU 18-4 8-1 13-5
South Carolina 11-11 6-3 10-8
Auburn 16-6 5-4 11-7
Mississippi 15-7 5-4 9-9
Alabama 14-8 5-4 10-8
Arkansas 14-8 5-4 9-9
Mississippi St. 16-6 4-5 9-9
Florida 12-10 4-5 9-9
Missouri 11-10 2-7 6-12
Georgia 10-12 1-8 4-14
Texas A&M 8-13 1-8 4-14
Vanderbilt 9-13 0-9 2-16

That would give Kentucky the number two seed in the SEC Tournament, which would pit them against the winner of Alabama and Florida Friday night at 6 p.m. CT.

How do you think Kentucky will finish the regular season? Pick their final record below:


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2021-09-17