Kentucky vs. Florida: KSR Predictions

The top 25 showdown between Kentucky and Florida is almost here. Before the action begins, see how the KSR staff believes the game will unfold.

Tyler Thompson

I’m all over the place with this game. I predicted a win before the season, but now, I’m not so sure. Not only did Florida look better than expected in its upset of No. 7 Utah (not 25-spots-in-the-AP-Poll better, mind you), Kentucky looked just okay vs. Miami (OH). The Cats finally turned on the jets in the second half to cruise past the RedHawks, but the issues on the offensive line are concerning, as is the limited backfield following injuries to Ramon Jefferson and JuTahn McClain and Chris Rodriguez’s ongoing suspension. And, oh yeah, the Gators have a quarterback that’s apparently the second coming of Vince Young. I thought I’d gotten over my Florida neuroses, but pulling off a win Saturday suddenly feels like a very tall task.

That said, Kentucky’s got a heck of a quarterback too, and if there’s a chance for him to make a splash on the national stage, this is it. Week 1 showed us Will Levis has weapons in Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key, and Barion Brown. Week 1 didn’t show us the plays that Rich Scangarello undoubtedly has up his sleeve. Kentucky’s defense got a boost with the news that Jordan Wright will be available. It’s more fun to believe than to wallow in fear, so I’ll go with the Cats in a close one — even if I’m quietly bracing myself for the opposite.

Kentucky 27, Florida 24

Zack Geoghegan

I truly believe the offensive line will improve from Week 1 to Week 2. Moving Kenneth Horsey to left tackle in place of redshirt freshman David Wohlabaugh Jr. should immediately shore up a good chunk of last week’s issues with the Big Blue Wall. It won’t be perfect, but with a week of experience under their belt, I would expect minor improvements down the entire line. Mark Stoops has a track record that suggests that’ll be the case.

Kentucky might throw the ball 45 times against the Gators, too. Without Chris Rodriguez Jr., this could be another case of the Wildcats rushing for 50 total yards, much like they did against Miami (OH). But that won’t be the difference in the game. Will Levis has a trio of stud wide receivers and a deep tight end room to both of his sides. Kentucky should try early on to establish some sort of run game — whether it be with Levis or La’Vell Wright — but if the yards aren’t stacking up, turning entirely to Levis won’t be a bad plan by any means.

Remember, Florida gave up over 216 yards passing to Utah and failed to record a sack. The Utes ran for another 230 yards. Even if the Big Blue Wall isn’t at its peak, they aren’t going up against a Georgia-esque defensive line.

I also want to see the true freshman repeat last week’s (slightly) unexpected debut performances. I think we can all assume Dane Key and Barion Brown will find ways to get the ball in their hands, but can the likes of Deone Walker, Alex Afari, and Keaten Wade make a consistent impact against their first SEC competition?

I think so, and all of the above leads to a six-point Kentucky victory.

Kentucky 30, Florida 24

Adam Luckett

The big game football week in the Bluegrass will finally come to an end on Saturday night when Kentucky and Florida meet in a top 25 matchup with ESPN on the call. How sweet is this?

Early in the week, I was a slight Florida lean in this matchup as the Gators have a strong offensive line and a quarterback that can create issues. But as a I dug into the matchup, there were some real factors that leaned Kentucky’s way.

In many ways, these teams a very similar, and if this was an NBA playoff series we would be going to seven games. But it’s not that. In a vacuum, Kentucky is drawing Florida in a great spot coming off what will be one of their best performances of the year and a week of hype. Odds are that Saturday will not be one of Florida’s best performances of the season.

In the 50/50 matchup, Kentucky appears to have a clear advantage in the kicking game, and the Florida defensive line lacks the depth to really dominate the game even if there are offensive line issues for the Cats. On defense, Kentucky’s front seven depth and big-play prevention should help keep the Gators in check as Anthony Richardson will have to earn touchdowns against a unit that should remain fresh throughout the game.

Neither team is overly explosive, but I put some more trust in Kentucky as the Cats have been great at eliminating chunk plays under Brad White. The game will come down to situational football, and the kicking game favors the Big Blue. That’s a big deal.

We get a tight game throughout, but the field position battle will be significant as Kentucky’s kicking game makes one huge play to flip the game. Will Levis ices the victory with some big plays late as Mark Stoops gets one of the biggest road wins of his career.

Kentucky 27, Florida 21

Jack Pilgrim

I just don’t get it. Unranked Florida beats an overrated PAC-12 team to open the season, jumps 25 spots in the AP Poll (unranked to No. 12) and is now somehow a world-beater in the college football world. Now Kentucky is soft and has no shot to beat the Gators down in the Swamp.

Come on now.

Chris Rodriguez is out, we get it. So are Ramon Jefferson and JuTahn McClain. All hits to the Wildcats’ gameplan, putting Kavosiey Smoke and La’Vell Wright in uncomfortable positions as the lone threats in the backfield — unless Tayvion Robinson emerges as an option. Kentucky needed 303 rushing yards to beat the Gators in Gainesville back in 2018.

Utah did, however, manage to put up 230 rushing yards and two scores on 5.9 yards per carry last week in the Swamp. Florida’s defensive line isn’t some impenetrable wall and the linebackers aren’t Ray Lewis, Lawrence Taylor, Brian Urlacher and Dick Butkus. And while we’re talking in hyperboles, Anthony Richardson isn’t Cam Newton, either — no matter how much the national talking heads want to speak it into existence.

The Wildcats are more talented than Utah on both sides of the football. Kentucky sloppily beat a MAC favorite in Miami (OH) by four scores and easily covered the spread — not sure why talking heads are using that performance to punish the Cats when predicting this game.

It’s ridiculous. I’m over it. Florida is a solid football team, but so is Kentucky. This narrative that the Wildcats simply have no chance on the road this weekend is ludicrous.

It won’t be easy and UK very well could lose, but this isn’t some David vs. Goliath story some are making it out to be. I like my team.

Kentucky 28, Florida 24

Nick Roush

I love the back and forth belief throughout game week. If we wrote these on Monday, most would have picked Florida. Now that the world is picking the Gators, Kentucky has a chip on its shoulder, right where Mark Stoops wants his Wildcats entering this matchup.

Kentucky needs to do a few things to pull off this upset and win for just the sixth time in Gainesville.

1. Create Explosive Runs Early. The Wildcats don’t need to run for 200 yards, but they need to force the Gators to respect the play-action pass.
2. Force Turnovers. Bring Anthony Richardson back down to Earth with a takeaway or two or three.
3. Keep Richardson in the Pocket. Make him be a thrower, not a runner.
4. Special Special Teams. The Cats have the leg up in this department, particularly in the return game. UK certainly feels that way. Did you see the clips they chose for #TBT this week?

A limited possession game, I’ll be surprised if either team gets to 30. Ultimately, this is Will Levis’ time to shine. He remembers how poorly he played last year. He’s heard all the chatter leading up to this game. Go be a difference-maker Seven.

Kentucky 27, Florida 24