KSR Golf: PGA Championship

We’ve reached the third week in May and that means it’s time for the second major championship of the year. The tour is headed to Tulsa as the golf world takes over Southern Hills Country Club for the 104th edition of the PGA Championship.

The last major of the year now has a great home in May and will be hosted by a course that has seen seven major championships with Tiger Woods winning the PGA Championship in the last event back in 2007. However, a rare occurrence will keep the defending champ out as Phil Mickelson will not be participating this year.

KSR Golf is here to find some winners. Let’s dig into the course and find some value.

Course layout

Southern Hills Country Club is a Par 70 that stretches out over 7,500 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes that each are over 600 yards. There are seven Par 4 holes between 450 and 500 yards. Power off of the tee will be needed this week.

There is landing room on the fairway but due to some alterations in the grass, it can be tricky to get a good lie. When on the fairway, hitting the dance floor will be difficult as the greens are small. Meanwhile, those same greens are elevated, and many balls will roll off into bunkers. Once there, players will be tasked with difficult up-and-down situations.

The top-70 plus ties will make it to the weekend. Only five players played below even par the last time this course hosted the PGA Championship with Woods shooting 272 (-8).

Advanced stat of the week

Due to the uniqueness of this course, two factors to focus on will be strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach. Players must combine good tee shots with accurate second shots to give themselves a chance to score on all of the deep Par 4 holes.

Collin Morikawa has won two major championships — 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 British Open — over the last two seasons and is known for his ball striking. The 25-year-old ranks inside the top-10 in both strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach. With a recent top-five at the Masters, Morikawa has a major championship pedigree and has solid value with 20/1 win odds at Draft Kings.

Luckett’s Locks

Will Zalatoris was in our lineup last week, and the 25-year-old pro missed the cut. However, the Wake Forest product is an elite ball-striker ranking No. 1 in strokes gained approach and No. 11 in strokes gained off-the-tee. Zalatoris is fresh off a T-6 finish at the Masters and has shown good form recently at majors with four top-10 finishes in four of his last six starts. Zalatoris checks some boxes and is our pick to win at 28/1.

Corey Conners ranks fifth in strokes gained off-the-tee and is inside the top-50 in approach. The 30-year-old has made six consecutive cuts with eight top-25 finishes in 15 starts this season. The No. 32 ranked golfer has three consecutive top-10 finishes at the Masters and played well at last year’s PGA Championship. We’re jumping on top-20 odds of +220.

Mito Pereira has made 6 of 7 cuts with three top-20 finishes. The native of Chile has been playing really solid golf while ranking inside the top-30 of both strokes gained approach and off-the-tee. There is value here to make the cut, and we’re jumping on plus odds (+110) for Pereira to finish in the top-40.

Keegan Bradley ranks inside the top-30 in both metrics and has three consecutive top-10 finishes entering the tournament. The 35-year-old won the PGA Championship in 2011 and could have an edge in a three-ball matchup between Tyrell Hatton and Russell Henley. Lock Bradley into a cover at +180.