KSR's Guide to the 2024 MLB Season: National League
While most of the country is still tuned into March Madness, and all of Lexington is on pins and needles, it’s easy to forget that spring is turning into summer. And with that change of season and the weather getting warmer, that can only mean one thing: baseball time.
While I grew up in Cincinnati and have been going to Reds games when I couldn’t even walk, I am now a proud Kentuckian. And while there are plenty of Reds fans in the Bluegrass, the range of MLB fandoms stretches from the American League West to the National League East.
So, this season, instead of throwing up just a Reds preview (Brandon Ramsey has that covered already), here at KSR, we want to give our great readers a guide to the ENTIRE MLB season. This article will include player projections, division previews, award picks, and an early World Series projection. We will start in the National League.
(All win total over/under are provided by FanDuel; those lines do not necessarily organize the division predictions)
(WAR will be referenced a lot, as it is one of the best stats in baseball, it stands for Wins Above Replacement. Baseball-Reference describes the stat as how many more wins a player provides compared to a replacement player, think AAA to AAAA. Negative WAR is very bad, 0-2 WAR is bench level, 5+ WAR is All-Star, with 8+ WAR being MVP. For example, last season, MVP Ronald Acuña Jr posted an 8.2 WAR, while Ian Happ posted a 3.0 WAR. So, mathematically Acuña was 5.2 wins “better” than Happ.)
NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves (O/U W’s 101.5)
Starting with a potential World Series winner in the Atlanta Braves. The hammers of A-Town have one of the best lineups in all of baseball, along with a young shutdown rotation. Atlanta is +450 to win the whole thing, and it is easy to see why. The lineup includes 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr, who is coming off the MLB’s first 40 HR and 70 SB season in the history of the majors.
Perennial All-Star’s Matt Olson and Austin Riley man the corners, while switch-hitting 2x silver slugger Ozzie Albies will play second. Former rookie of the year Michael Harris II will look to hit above .290 for the third year in a row. Marcell Ozuna (DH/LF), Sean Murphy (C), and Orlando Arcia (SS) are all returning veterans who provide little question marks regarding production.
However, LF Jarred Kelenic, a former top-five prospect in baseball, is now wearing Atlanta blue. Kelenic started with Seattle and was quickly one of the most exciting corner outfielders in baseball. However, his production has been subpar, and he’s even gone through a few swing changes in his three-year career. Kelenic will need to improve on his .204 career batting average to keep the nine-hole spot all season for the Braves.
Spencer Strider will start opening day and is considered the best young arm in baseball. Strider has a career 3.37 ERA and led the majors with 281 strikeouts last season. The 25-year-old is followed by Max Fried and Charlie Morton, two arms that could be the number one guy on at least half of the rotations in the majors. Veteran Chris Sale will be featured, as will 30-year-old journeyman Reynaldo Lopez. Former Red Raisel Iglesias will close for the Braves, along with set-up man A.J Minter.
The Braves should easily coast to an AL East pennant and should play in the National League Championship series.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (O/U 89.5)
The fightin’ Phils captivated the majors with their fun nature and incredible crowd. They took the Arizona Diamondbacks to seven games in the NLCS and became darlings for the first time in Philadelphia sports history. Guys like DH Kyle Schwarber, RF Nick Castellanos, and LF Brandon Marsh showed passion and played great in November. All return for Philly, along with one of the most hated players in the majors, 1B Bryce Harper.
However, the best player on this squad for me is Trea Turner, the shortstop who hit .266 last season and had 30 stolen bases. Turner has won a World Series with the Nationals and is a former batting title winner. Johan Rojas was a rookie in center field last season who hit over .300. The former Phillies number six prospect will need a big season to produce along with these proven bats.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola return to head the rotation, and both are projected sub-4 ERAs. If the Phillies get production out of Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Spencer Turnbull in the rotation, then they can compete in the NL East. Even if the Braves run away with the pennant, the Phillies should be a lock for a wild-card spot. Also, look for Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos to explode this year, both could hit upwards of .280 with insane pop, maybe even hover around a .810 OPS.
3. Miami Marlins (O/U 78.5)
The Miami Marlins offense is one of the most electric in baseball, all while being one of the most inconsistent. Outside of batting average savant 2B Luis Arraez and his major league-best .354 AVG last season, the Marlins are boom or bust. Absolute star and electric C.F. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is one of the most fun players to watch in baseball. Chisholm Jr. has completely leaned into the “let the kids play” movement and seems to make it his life goal to make older fans very bad.
As fun as Chisholm Jr. is, his Wins Above Replacement (the stat from Money Ball) stat has not been too kind to his production. His 1.2 WAR last season is considered in the bench player category, not great for a guy who was the face of MLB The Show 23. An exciting story developed as Jazz went on “The Pivot” podcast and accused former teammate Miguel Rojas of hazing him in his first few years as a Marlin. With Rojas now a Dodger, Jazz will look to get his swagger back.
Tim Anderson will start at shortstop for the Marlins, coming off his worst season as a pro. Anderson was considered one of the better S.S. bats in baseball before 2023. If Anderson gets back to his bat pre-2023, it could be another boom for the Marlins. Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk man the rotation, a rotation with four projected lefties starting on the major league roster. Max Meyer is the Marlin’s current number-three prospect and will make the opening-day roster. He could be significant for Miami in their push for a wild card spot.
Injuries have hurt the Marlins, with ace Sandy Alcantara out for the season after getting successful Tommy John Surgery. The Marlins pitching has been suffering even more injuries. Eduard Cabrera and Eury Perez are also nursing injuries, both being very important to the Marlins pitching staff.
4. New York Mets (O/U 81.5)
Now, one of the biggest wild cards in all of baseball. The New York Mets are one of the most polarizing organizations in all of sports. With a great fanbase and an ownership that will cost billions to complete, no success has come towards the little brothers of the Big Apple. The Mets have the highest payroll in all of baseball at over $301 million. This payroll has given the Mets some supreme talent. 32-year-old second-year pitcher Kodai Senga enjoyed an All-Star rookie season, even receiving Cy Young votes. Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA last season. However, he was shut down during spring training, and there is no current timetable for his return. It will be sooner rather than later though, which is significant for a rotation that outside of Senga does little to impress the eye.
On the batter side, SS Francisco Lindor, CF Brandon Nimmo, 1B Pete Alonso, and 2B Jeff McNeil are all bats that Mets fans can count on. If Lindor and Alonso return to the elite levels of their past, the lineup looks much better. Former top prospect 3B Brett Baty had an abysmal 2023; he batted .212 and had a damaging .5 WAR last season, well into replacement level. Francisco Alvarez is featured behind the dish and is also a former top prospect across the league. If his bat gets hot, then the Mets could hit their over on wins, but the pitching staff is far from a contender.
5. Washington Nationals (O/U 66.5)
The Washington Nationals are in full rebuild mode. After their World Series championship in 2019, they have been on a steady decline. Luckily for Washington fans, they have gotten good hauls for all of their former stars. They moved Juan Soto for S.S. CJ Abrams, LHP MacKenzie Gore, OF James Wood, OF Robert Hassell III, and more. All four of these young prospects were top-100 in the MLB, with Abrams and Gore producing last season in the majors. Wood is projected to make it to the majors this season and is currently listed as the 14th-best prospect overall.
The Nats also have former LSU star Dylan Crews, who is listed as the seventh-best prospect in baseball. He is also projected to make it to the majors this season, which would set up an electric outfield. Abrams will hold down the majors as one of the best young shortstops in all of baseball.
The Nationals’ pitching staff is one of the youngest in the game, and they are all solid. Josiah Gray was an All-Star last season and is one of the best young arms in the game. Jake Irvin, Mackenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, and DJ Herz will all be young arms who can be big for the Nationals. They will be all in on development, and hopefully, for Nats fans, they can win some games along the way.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (O/U 83.5)
The National League Central is truly a toss-up amongst all five teams in the division. While some expectations are higher than others, there is a realistic scenario that sees every team somewhere finishing first to last. For the Chicago Cubs, their off-season was headlined by the hiring of manager Craig Counsell. For those who don’t follow baseball deeply, this would seem like an insignificant hire. However, Counsell was the manager of the Brewers for the past nine years, and even spent five years there as a player.
This offseason, Counsell shocked all of baseball when he switched within divisons to join the Chicago Cubs. Counsell will bring some fire back to Chicago, and this will start with CF Cody Bellinger keeping his form of last year. The former MVP exploded back on the scene with a 4.4 WAR with 26 HRs and 97 RBIs. He also mashed the ball with a .881 OPS last season, 12th best in all of baseball.
Seiya Suzuki will man right field in his third year with the Cubs. Suzuki broke out last season hitting for 20 HRs and 31 doubles. Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner are all the main figures of Chicago’s lineup that will produce high this season. Swanson is one of the more popular shortstops in the game and could be big for the blue this season.
Christopher Morel is another great young player for the Cubs. The 24-year-old is also entering his third season and will play many positions for the Cubbies. He’s seen across the league as a huge breakout candidate for a first All-Star Game appearance this season. The rotation is anchored by Justin Steele, one of the best arms in the game of baseball. The 28-year-old is elite with a career 3.30 ERA and an All-Star appearance last season. He even shook off a come-backer to the leg last week and is expected to start opening day.
The Cubs’ signing of Shōta Imanaga may prove to be one of the best in all of the National League. Imanaga is a 30-year-old starter from Japan who is a career 2.96 ERA in 192 games mostly in the JPCL. He is a major question mark, as some players that change leagues can struggle to find their footing in the majors, while some flourish. Still, with Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Wicks, and Jameson Taillon (injured but should be back soon) behind him, there is less pressure for him to instantly perform.
2. Cincinnati Reds (O/U 81.5)
Now for the most intriguing and youngest team in the entire National League Central. The Cincinnati Reds can truly fall anywhere between first and fifth in any projection and both could be credibly argued. The latter being especially true with injuries to TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Nick Lodolo. Friedl was incredible for the Reds in center field last season with a very solid 3.8 WAR and .279 batting average. He suffered a right wrist fracture and will begin the season on the IL with an expected return in May.
Matt McLain was another stud on the young Reds roster with the 24-year-old rookie out of UCLA enjoying one of the best rookie seasons the Reds have seen. McLain posted a 3.7 WAR in his rookie season at second base which helped him to be voted fifth-best rookie in the National League. However, McLain suffered a left shoulder injury that will keep him out of Opening Day. The Reds have no timetable for his return.
So, with the giant cloud of spring training injuries looming over Great American Ballpark, what will the Reds do without key players? Well, it seems the Redlegs will turn to 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, and La Cocoa himself Elly De La Cruz to man the infield. De La Cruz took over baseball with one of the best first months in baseball history. He continued to show flashes throughout the rest of the season, but ended the year on the bench after hitting a rough patch at the plate. Elly re-tooled his swing this offseason and is looking to return to form. Most around the league put De La Cruz’s potential up there with the best in baseball.
Elsewhere the Reds return another man that feasted in his rookie year, Spencer Steer. The former third-baseman will play left field every day for the Reds and is known as a “pro hitter”. Steer will be mirrored by Jake Fraley and Will Benson, two lefty bats with PLENTY of pop. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will man first for the Reds (also in his second year) while new signing Jeimer Candelario will switch hit and play third. CES had a great spring, and is seen as a very plus bat with all of the makeup of a great big league hitter. Candelario has also been seen as a good bat, as he joined the Cubs last season for their playoff push.
For pitching, the Reds signed Frankie Montas to a decent-sized deal and announced he will start Opening Day. Montas has been very injury-prone but has been a great pitcher when healthy with the Yankees. Hunter Greene will continue to be one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball, with the 24-year-old sporting a fastball that touches 103 MPH. However, Greene has been hard at work on the rest of his pitch arsenal, with his slider being his main number two pitch. Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, and Brandon Williamson will round out the Reds rotation. On the other hand, waiting in the wings are top-100 prospects Connor Phillips and Rhett Lowder, both right-handed starters who are projected to join the majors in 2024.
With Friedl and McLain out, look for the Reds to start slow and come on hot later in the season.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (O/U 84.5)
For the Cardinals, it seemed last season may have been the time to move on from the old core and rebuild. However, a stubborn ownership used to winning caused the Cards to hold onto Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Both have been very good in their times in the National League Central, and the Cardinals decided to give the group another chance. This time, they have some young help on the horizon.
Jordan Walker will start in the outfield and was a top-ten prospect in baseball. He played great last season and showed flashes of a truly elite bat. However, the Cardinals moved him from his natural third base to right field. Let’s just say the results haven’t been overly positive.
Masyn Winn is another super exciting prospect for the Cardinals who will likely start at shortstop on opening day. As a prospect Winn was known for his speed and his arm grading at an 80 out of 80 on his throw power. Winn hasn’t impressed with his bat quite yet, but could develop into a solid contact guy with elite fielding. Winn is known for this absurd (and kind of unnecessary) throw in the MLB Futures game in 2022.
The Cardinals are preparing to graduate all five of their top-five prospects, which could result in the old guard getting shipped if they fall out of the race. This could include Sonny Gray, who the Cardinals signed to anchor their rotation. With Gray, Goldschmidt, and Arenado, the Cardinals could hit the rebuild button in an instant, but risk losing value on all three stars. But, if guys like Brennan Donovan, Alec Burlson, and Zack Thompson all play above expectations, the Cardinals could truly compete for the pennant.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (O/U 77.5)
Milwaukee has won three of the past six National League Central titles with Craig Counsell at the helm. Now, with Counsell in Chicago, the Brewers are starting over. On the bright side, the Brewers are starting over with some of the best young prospects in baseball.
Sal Frelick busted on the scene as an elite outfielder and a top-ten prospect according to MLB.com. He posted a 1.4 WAR with an even .7 WAR on offense and defense in his rookie year. Frelick possesses elite speed along with a great contact bat with some pop. He primarily will play right field this season because of another elite prospect set to make his MLB debut.
Jackson Chourio is currently the number two prospect in the minors, an elite center fielder out of Maracaibo, Venezuela. The 20-year-old just made the Brewers Opening Day roster, and is set to make his debut on Thursday against the Mets. Chourio excited the Brewers front office so much with his skillset that he signed an eight-year, $82 million long-term extension before swinging at a single pitch in the majors. He is a true all-around prospect with good speed, good fielding, and some crazy power for his 5’11 frame.
The Brew Crew still has Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames, and Freddy Peralta which round out the core of the Brewers. DL Hall is an exciting young arm that was great last season with a 3.26 ERA. Brandon Woodruff is on the 60-day IL and will help the Brewers when he returns. Abner Uribe and Devin Williams anchor the bullpen which was one of the best in baseball last season.
The Brewers are another team graduating four of their top five prospects this season, which could push out older members of the roster. Look for the Brewers to either compete or get some compensation for Woodruff and Yelich.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (O/U 75.5)
Finally, the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to be competitive in a season! All jokes aside this is the best roster Pittsburgh has trotted out in a decent amount of years. This squad reminds me a bit of the Reds last season, with Andrew McCutchen as the veteran finally able to see his home squad competitive again. Cutch has still been productive at age 47 and is projected to man the DH role this season. However, this squad is all about the young talent sprinkled throughout PNC Park.
Namely, the return of Oneil Cruz from injury, a shortstop that may come from the same planet as Elly De La Cruz. The six-foot-seven shortstop is the tallest in baseball history and poises elite speed with a crazy arm to go with it. He also has insane pop, with some homers this year taking years off of a baseball’s life-spans. Cruz’s has the ability to make a wooden bat sound like how it does in a video game; unreal stuff against the Phillies.
Henry Davis was a top-catching prospect and has been great for the Pirates organization. He alongside fellow catcher Endy Rodriguez entered 2023 as top prospects in the Pirates system. However, with Rodriguez out for 2024, this season is all Davis’ to call. Davis has a great power/arm combo behind the dish and hit seven homers in 62 games last season. However, he had an abysmal .212 AVG and -1.2 WAR, both well below where exceptions had him. This season will be big for the former top-100 prospect.
However, my favorite Pirate is perennially underrated Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is a third base savant. Hayes was the number nine prospect in all of baseball in 2021 and has been incredible since. His bat never caught up to where projections had him, but his 2.7 defensive WAR was good for fifth in baseball last season. If his bat reaches levels that projections had him, Hayes could develop into one of the best third basemen in baseball.
In regards to pitching, Mitch Keller is the ace of this staff. However, all of the excitement lies on baseball’s number three prospect Paul Skenes. Most will remember him for his domination last season at LSU, where he brought more eyes to college baseball than there was in a long time. Skenes features an elite fastball and is set to debut this season as he starts in AAA. Have fun Pittsburgh, you deserve it.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (O/U 103.5)
Now, we head to the best division in baseball, the National League West. The West gave the National League its World Series representative in the Diamondbacks. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers should win the division and beyond this season. In fact, if the Dodgers don’t make it to the NLCS this season then it may be time to shut the money down and tell them to relocate to Kentucky or something.
After getting swept by the D-Backs in the NLDS, the Dodgers ownership decided to give a big ol’ middle finger to the entire league by signing reigning American League MVP Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700-million-dollar deal, with Ohtani deferring all but $20 million until 2032. So not only did they give Ohtani enough money to buy roughly 5,303 Tesla Model Xs, but they don’t owe it yet. However, Ohtani is in hot water regarding a recent claim from former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara where it is alleged that he was gambling on sports and had a large debt with bookmakers. Ohtani told the Washington Post, “That’s when I found out he had a massive debt. And it was revealed to me in that meeting that Ippei admitted he was sending money using my account to the bookmaker,” Ohtani said. “At that moment, it was obviously an absurd thing that was happening, and I contacted my representatives at that point.”
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are looking to continue their All-Star careers and continue to be some of the best bats in baseball. They will also have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another Japanese pitcher whom the Dodgers gave $300+ to enter their rotation. Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller will probably be the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, with Bobby Miller looking to break out as one of the best young arms. Gavin Stone will be a rookie pitcher that will be at the 4-5 and veteran James Paxton will be at the back.
Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez are other plus bats along with James Outman who was a rookie of the year candidate last season. If the pitching holds, the Dodgers should be playing in the NLCS.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (O/U 83.5)
The reigning National League champions will look to run it back in 2024. They will do so behind MVP candidate and new possible face of baseball Corbin Carroll. The former top-five prospect was incredible last season and took home National League Rookie of the Year. Carroll is incredibly dynamic, a plus center fielder, one of the fastest players in baseball, and an incredible bat. His 5.4 WAR and crazy postseason put Carroll amongst some of the best rookie seasons in baseball history. He slashed for a .860 OPS last season and is looking to continue the plate discipline and power again in 2024.
Alek Thomas is another great outfielder, one with incredible speed and great in the outfield. His speed is what jumps off the page, and he played great in October last season. Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. anchor the D-Backs with their veteran presence. Joc Pederson was a big signing for the Diamondbacks and can provide some big pop to this speedy lineup.
The rotation is spearheaded by All-Star Zac Gallen. He should be one of the favorites in the Cy Young race, and he dominated last season with a 3.47 ERA. Merrill Kelly and Kentucky native Brandon Pfaadt are the 2-3 and make for one of the best 1-2-3s in the National League.
3. San Diego Padres (O/U 83.5)
Now, the San Diego Padres are one of the hardest teams to predict. Last season, their talent was off the charts, but their late-game baseball cost them a ton of wins. This season, the Padres lost Juan Soto to the Yankees, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is looking to regain his crown atop the league’s best young talents. Manny Machado is still Manny, an absolute stud at third with some of the best pop in baseball.
Xander Bogaerts will play second and is looking to get back to his All-Star Red Sox form. Ha-Soung Kim, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Campusano provide some major power in a larger Petco Park. Jackson Merrill is one of the best young outfielders and could compete for some great PR amongst the greats in San Diego.
However, the real stars of the show are the rotation. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease, and Michael King make the pitching staff in San Diego one of the best in baseball. The Padres have a ton of young prospects, and should easily compete for a Wild Card spot.
4. San Francisco Giants (O/U 83.5)
The Giants are another squad with a great rotation. Logan Webb, Blake Snell, and Jordan Hicks are really, really good. It’s crazy that all three feature on the same rotation. In fact, Webb is my pick for National League Cy Young this season. Jung Hoo Lee is a signing for the Giants that could really change their season. He is seen as a great bat and should man leadoff for the Giants. Matt Chapman was also added, a perennial gold glover who has even twice earned platinum glove honors.
Jorge Solar, LaMonte Wade, and Michael Conforto are big as well and are big power guys in another big ballpark. Second baseman Thairo Estrada is a reliable contact guy, but the rest of the bats don’t do it for me. For the Giants to be competitive, they will need their pitching to take them a long way. Marco Luciano is the dynamic piece for the Giants, as he is seen as one of their best prospects and could be playing this season.
Jung Hoo Lee is truly the X-factor for this squad, I just feel the division is too tough for this squad.
5. Colorado Rockies (O/U 60.5)
Poor Rockies, such a good division, such a bad team. Outside of Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, and Nolan Jones, the Rockies are pretty lackluster among talent. Brendan Rodgers is another guy with a pretty good average, Ryan McMahon also adds home run power in Colorado. Their rotation is very bad and will get hit around all over Coors Field. Most of their prospects are a couple of years away, so look for the Rockies in 2026 for some good young talent. The organization also believes in young shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and signed him to a long-term, team-friendly deal.
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