KSR's 2023 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview

The NCAA Tournament is upon us. The field of 68 is here and one team will punch its ticket to the Final Four in Louisville. Who will survive and advance out of the South Region? KSR has everything you need to know. Previous Previews: East Region

The South Region Schedule

Tuesday

• No. 16 SE Missouri State vs. No. 16. Texas A&M CC  | 6:30 p.m. | truTV

Thursday

• No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 8 Maryland | Noon | CBS 
• No. 13 Furman vs. No. 4 Virginia  | 12:30 p.m. | truTV 
• No. 10 Utah St. vs. No. 7 Missouri  | 1:20 p.m. | TNT 
• No. 16 SE Missouri St./Texas A&M CC vs. No. 1 Alabama | 2:30 p.m. | CBS 
• No. 12 College of Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego St. | 3 p.m. | truTV 
• No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 2 Arizona | 3:50 p.m. | TNT 

Friday

• No. 14 UC Santa Barbra vs. No. 3 Baylor | 1:20 p.m. | TNT 
• No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 6 Creighton | 3:50 p.m. | TNT 

The Bracket

Efficiency Rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

3. Alabama (No. 19 offense, No. 3 defense)

10. Arizona (No. 4 offense, No. 41 defense)

13. Creighton (No. 28 offense, No. 15 defense)

14. San Diego State (No. 64 offense, No. 10 defense)

15. Baylor (No. 2 offense, No. 104 defense)

17. West Virginia (No. 15 offense, No. 52 defense)

18. Utah State (No. 13 offense, No. 64 defense)

22. Maryland (No. 35 offense, No. 33 defense)

34. Virginia (No. 74 offense, No. 25 defense)

51. Missouri (No. 10 offense, No. 178 defense)

55. NC State (No. 37 offense, No. 85 defense)

73. Charleston (No. 70 offense, No. 75 defense)

89. Furman (No. 33 offense, No. 183 defense)

102. UC Santa Barbara (No. 71 offense, No 163 defense)

112. Princeton (No. 103 offense, No. 137 defense)

170. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (No. 137 offense No. 229 defense)

257. Southeast Missouri State (No. 263, No. 243 defense)

Odds to Win the South Region

• +190 Alabama
• +400 Arizona
• +550 Baylor
• +700 Creighton
• +900 San Diego State
• +1400 West Virginia
• +1500 Virginia

The South Region Favorite

This is Alabama’s region to lose. They have the best defense (No. 3 overall) and the best player (Brandon Miller). Even though they are under an immense amount of scrutiny following Miller’s involvement in a murder investigation, it feels like they are using that adversity to create an “us against the world” mentality. Even if that is a misevaluation on my part, the matchups on paper all favor the No. 1 overall seed. This region is filled with outstanding offensive teams that will try to run with Alabama and just aren’t good enough to keep up with the Crimson Tide.

Can Arizona get over the hump?

Sean Miller took the West Coast Wildcats to three Elite Eights in five seasons. They were a No. 1 or 2 seed three times, yet could never sweat out a Final Four appearance. Tommy Lloyd earned a No. 1 seed in his first season in Tucson, but they were eliminated in the Sweet 16 by Houston. Fresh off a PAC-12 Tournament title, they have some momentum with a powerful 1-2 punch in the paint. Seven-footers Azoulas Tubelis and Oumar Bello combine to average 34 points and 17.8 rebounds per game. They don’t just win with bigs. Arizona ranks 17th nationally in three-point percentage (38.2%). They might have what it takes to make it to Houston.

Creighton has pieces to make a South Region run

One big obstacle to Arizona in the paint is Ryan Kalkbrenner. The 7-footer is one of the best centers in college hoops, averaging 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Baylor Scheierman is a versatile stretch four and Trey Alexander is shooting 44% from three to score more than 13 points a contest. The bench might be a problem for the Bluejays, but you can only play five players at once. Don’t be surprised to see the No. 6 seed in the Elite Eight.

Upset Special: 12 vs. 13 in the Second Round?

The South Region has tons of offensive firepower, except for the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. Furman ranks in the top 15 in effective field goal percentage, has the best 2-point offense in the country and is ranked No. 18 in points off three-pointers per game (28.2). They can shoot it over Virginia’s pack-line defense and put the Hoos on their heels.

Similarly, Charleston scores 29.9 points per game from three per game (9th in the country). They’ve only lost three games all year and spent some of the season in the Top 25. They’re playing a San Diego State team that must win with defense. It’s also a good time to remind you that the Mountain West is 1-11 in the Big Dance since 2016.

An Easy Ticket for the South Region in Louisville

Kentucky fans had the Louisville regional circled for quite some time. I wrote about it almost as soon as last season ended. Instead of getting a homecourt advantage, the South Region next week at the KFC Yum! Center will most likely feature teams that aren’t within a 6-hour driving radius. Outside of Alabama or a surprising run from West Virginia, the nearest fanbases to the Ohio Valley are Creighton, Missouri and Virginia. For basketball fans who just want to be a part of a big-time atmosphere, you can probably get in the door for less than $100 before the Sweet 16 tips off next Friday.

South Region Prediction: Alabama

Rolling with the chalk is never fun when completing brackets, but if there’s one No. 1 seed to Sharpie into the Final Four, it’s Alabama. They should coast into the Elite Eight. Even if the Crimson Tide have an off night offensively, they can fall back on their defense to gut out a close game. In a year where the top teams have struggled to separate themselves from the pack, Alabama is the one school that’s continuously improved all year and they’re playing their best basketball when it matters most, March.