Luckett's Locks: Long Season

Last week was bad. Let’s turn the page.

After an incredible cover from North Carolina with plenty of theatrics in the noon window, things fell off a cliff as Houston won a thriller but didn’t cover, and some blocked kicks kept us away from an LSU cover on Sunday night.

Live and learn.

We’ve gone back to the drawing board this week after a 1-5 against the spread (ATS) start. Luckett’s Locks has six more picks for Week 2 as we look to show some real growth as the season progresses.

North Carolina (-7) at Georgia State

North Carolina hasn’t gotten many stops through the first two games, but redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye has been outstanding. The former blue-chip recruit is averaging 323 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 8.8 yards per attempt on 36.5 throws per game. The ground game has also been strong as the Heels are averaging over seven yards per rush. In the high tempo, heavy RPO scheme of offensive coordinator Phil Longo this offense is going to continue to score a boatload of points and win games in the ACC.

Georgia State is not expected to be a title contender in a strong Sun Belt, but the Panthers made some noise in Week 1. Shawn Elliott’s club outgained South Carolina but lost by 21 to South Carolina thanks to some special teams blunders. However, the passing game was a major issue for this spread option offense.

In the preseason, App State was projected to have a better defense than Georgia State, and we saw what UNC did to the Mountaineers on the road in Week 1. Once again, we’re getting the Heels at a cheap price on the road. Georgia State will score some points but there is just too much firepower with Carolina. Maye has another big game as UNC gets to 3-0.

Lay the touchdown with Mack Brown’s squad.

Kansas (+13.5) at West Virginia

Lance Leipold has a tough rebuild still facing him in the Big 12, but Kansas finally made the right hire when they convinced the Buffalo coach to come to Lawrence. There are still talent issues, but the coaching staff is excellent at KU, and this program showed some proof of concept in year one. Both quarterback Jalon Daniels and tailback Devin Neal are pieces to build around as the defense is still a major work in progress.

Perhaps no one in college football had a tougher loss than West Virginia last week. In the return of the Backyard Brawl, WVU outplayed Pittsburgh for most of the game but still found a way to lose with a dropped pass that turned into a pick-six in the fourth quarter followed by a tough review on a fourth down pass that would’ve set the Mountaineers up for a first-and-goal. JT Daniels showed some flashes at quarterback, and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has a few pieces, but there are talent issues on defense.

West Virginia is the better team in this conference opener, but this is a very tough spot for the double-digit home favorite. It’s going to be tough for WVU to get off the mat, and all signs point to a middle-of-the-road performance. Kansas is good enough to challenge the Mountaineers in that situation.

Take the points. Rock Chalk.

Boston College (+2.5) at Virginia Tech

Year three got off to a rough start for Jeff Hafley as Boston College lost a game at the wire to Rutgers last week. Despite the return of pro prospect Phil Jurkovec at quarterback and some good skill talent, there are issues with a brand new offensive line and play-caller. Meanwhile, the defense could not stop the run.

Things didn’t start great for Boston College, but they were worse for Virginia Tech. The Hokies went on the road and dropped an in-state matchup with Old Dominion thanks to five total turnovers and a woeful offensive performance under new play-caller Tyler Bowen. New head coach Brent Pry has his work cut out for him.

Virginia Tech’s defense is the best unit on the field, but Boston College has the top quarterback and wide receiver in this matchup by a significant margin. The Eagles will find ways to put points on the board while this Virginia Tech offense will struggle again. The wrong team is favored in this ACC contest.

Take the value with the points. Boston College gets a big road win to begin conference play.

Baylor at BYU (-3)

Kalani Sitake is 23-4 in his last 27 games at BYU as this is currently one of the best programs in college football. The Cougars were dominant in a road win against USF in Week 1 as the Cougars might have the best offensive line in the country with an NFL prospect at quarterback. The defense needs to make some strides, but BYU is a sneaky playoff contender.

Former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes is making his return to Provo after leaving for Baylor two years ago. Both teams playing very similarly on offense with a wide zone rushing attack and a heavy amount of play-action. Baylor is also very good on the offensive line and folks in Waco are high on quarterback Blake Shapen while Dave Aranda will have another strong defense.

This matchup is one of the best of the weekend and occurs in the after-dark window. After losing to Baylor on the road last year, the Cougars return the favor as BYU has the better quarterback and offensive line in this matchup.

Lay the points with the home favorite in what should be an excellent college football game.

Mississippi State (-10.5) at Arizona

Mississippi State was impressive in Week 1 as junior quarterback Will Rogers threw for 450 yards and five touchdowns on 9.2 yards per attempt in a huge 49-23 home victory over Memphis. In year three, Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense seems primed for takeoff with an experienced quarterback and a skill talent corps with quality depth.

The Jedd Fisch era at Arizona got a big shot in the arm last week as the Wildcats went on the road and handled defending Mountain West champ San Diego State. Washington State transfer quarterback Jayden de Laura was impressive in his debut with four touchdown passes. UTEP wide receiver transfer Jacob Cowing was huge in the win for the Wildcats, and he looks like an all-conference performer after reeling in eight receptions for 152 yards.

The passing games for both Arizona and Mississippi State will get most of the attention, but the Bulldogs have the better defense in this matchup. That gives the SEC team a distinct advantage on the road. State puts up a bunch of points, and the popular home dog this week will not be able to keep up.

Lay the double digits with the SEC team.

Best Bet: South Carolina at Arkansas Under 53

South Carolina started the season 1-0, but the Gamecocks played some ugly football against Georgia State last week. A pair of second half special teams touchdowns turned a close game into a blowout as the Panthers outgained Carolina. Ballyhooed transfer Spencer Rattler threw two interceptions, and the Gamecocks simply couldn’t run the ball again as the offensive line struggled. Pressure is building for offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield.

Arkansas again has the toughest schedule in college football, and the Hogs got off to a good start in Week 1. Barry Odom’s three safety defense limited Cincinnati’s rushing attack in Week 1 and that allowed Arkansas to get a big 31-24 win to start the year. The Hogs will continue to have a strong running game with quarterback KJ Jefferson serving as a dual-threat, but the passing game has some explosiveness concerns.

The defenses on both sides are the top two units in this contest. South Carolina’s Clayton White is an excellent defensive coordinator, and Odom is one of the best in the country. Each will put together a good plan to slow down offenses with good quarterbacks. The inefficiency of South Carolina shows up as scoring will be difficult for a Gamecocks offense that doesn’t have balance.

Let’s sweat out an under in the noon window.