Luckett's Locks: Penultimate Weekend

Week 11 wasn’t our best at Luckett’s Locks, but it wasn’t our worst.

An unfortunate 3-4 against the spread (ATS) record gave us another losing weekend as our season ATS total falls to 34-41-2. It’s just been that kind of year.

However, we’re taking another swing in Week 12 as Luckett’s Locks attempts to climb out of the gutter. Totals are the flavor of the week.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Michigan State @ Ohio State Over 68.5

Michigan State is attempting to make Mel Tucker a very rich man, but first the Spartans must play a football game with high stakes. Sitting at 9-1, Sparty has a chance to get back into the playoff powered by an offense that is great at creating explosive plays. Tailback Kenneth Walker III is a big reason why as he leads the country with 1,473 rushing yards and 19 carries of 20-plus yards.

Meanwhile, Ohio State has the best offense in college football averaging 46.3 points per game and 8.03 yards per play. Redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud is making a Heisman push, and the skill talent in Columbus is absurd.

All signs are pointing to a shootout between the Buckeyes and Spartans. Michigan State has the ammo to create some big plays against Ohio State, but a porous passing defense means big things for Stroud and Co. The Buckeyes drop another big number, but Michigan State scores enough to get that over ticket to the winning window.

Wake Forest @ Clemson Over 56.5

The Demon Deacons still control their destiny, and a win in Death Valley will clinch an ACC Atlantic title. Sam Hartman is having a terrific season with 30 touchdowns over nine yards per attempt as the defense has forced enough takeaways to hide some bad outings.

Quietly, Clemson has won 5 out of 6 as the Tigers have one of the best defenses in college football. However, the offense is still putting up some ugly numbers as sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei just cannot shake this woeful season-long funk.

Clemson is bad on offense, but the Tigers are going to have to score points to win this game. The Deacs are very inefficient on defense and do not get scoring opportunity stops. The home team gets enough points on the board as Wake Forest has some explosive play success on offense.

Take the over.

Rutgers @ Penn State Under 47

Greg Schiano is looking to get Rutgers back into the postseason, but the offense is not helping much. The Scarlet Knights are 120th in yards per play and 114th in success rate. Despite that bad football, Rutgers is at 5-5 thanks to a good defense.

The same thing is going on at Penn State. The Nittany Lions find themselves at 99th in yards per play, but the defense is doing enough to give them a chance at wins. Standing at 6-4, James Franklin desperately needs a victory on senior day.

All signs point to this Big Ten nooner being rough on the eyes as points will be hard to come. The forecast is overcast with no sun as the temperature is in the 40s.

That screams under, and Luckett’s Locks is jumping on it.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma Over 59.5

Matt Campbell provided an interesting answer this week regarding the season as the Cyclones are officially out of the Big 12 title race. However, the Cyclones can play spoiler to Oklahoma. The offense is leading the way as Iowa State is No. 19 nationally in yards per play offense (6.92).

Oklahoma is fresh off the worst offensive outing of the Lincoln Riley era against Baylor on the road, but the Sooners can still win another conference title. The defense has been disappointing, but the offense figures to be ready to bounce back big.

The two best units in this game are both of the offenses. Due to that, a Big 12 shootout could be breaking out in Norman.

Play the over.

Florida Atlantic @ WKU Under 64.5

After consecutive losses, FAU is out of the running for a division title, but the Owls are looking to become bowl eligible. The offense has had some issues in Boca despite some solid play from quarterback N’Kosi Perry. However, Mike Stoops has delivered one of the best defenses in C-USA during his first year at FAU.

WKU is legit on offense as this Air Raid attack has been lighting people up in C-USA. Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe leads the country in passing yards (4,170) and passing touchdowns (42) as he’s turned into a draftable prospect. Meanwhile, the defense has taken strides forward in conference play.

Two of the best units in the C-USA will faceoff when WKU has the ball. However, the game will be decided when FAU has the football. The Tops will get enough stops, and FAU will challenge this Air Raid attack.

The Owls to 5-2 with the under after a surprising defensive battle breaks out in Bowling Green.

Michigan (-15.5) @ Maryland

After a huge road win over Penn State, the Wolverines return to the road for one final tune-up before hosting Ohio State in the biggest game of the Jim Harbaugh era. Michigan is nothing special on offense, but the defense has been ferocious against everyone but Michigan State under 34-year-old coordinator Mike Macdonald.

After another hot start, Maryland is again looking at another losing season under Mike Locksley. The Terps are 1-5 in their last six games with each loss coming by at least 17 points. The only victory came against Indiana who might be the worst team in the Big Ten. All of this is happening despite some strong quarterback play from Taulia Tagovailoa (69% completion rate, 8 yards per attempt).

Michigan could use some style points for the playoff committee, and Maryland has bombed against good teams all season. Wolverines win big in College Park.

Lay the double-digits.

Louisiana (+4.5) @ Liberty

The coaching carousel is off and running, and fourth-year head coach Billy Napier is a hot commodity. However, the Cajuns have a season to finish out. Louisiana is one of the most well-rounded teams in college football, and they will be playing for a Sun Belt title for the fourth season in a row but will look to claim their first league crown come December.

Despite having an NFL prospect at quarterback, year three has been a bit of a disappointment for Hugh Freeze at Liberty. The Flames have a bad road loss to ULM to go along with Power Five fails against Syracuse and Ole Miss. Liberty is good on both sides of the ball, but this year will feel like the team left some meat on the bone.

Under Napier, Louisiana is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog with a handful of wins on the field. How do you improve a scorching stock on the recruiting trail? By pulling off an upset.

Take the points in a game with two evenly matched teams.

South Alabama (+28) @ Tennessee

The Jaguars sit at 5-5 under 34-year-old head coach Kane Wommack with three losses in the last four weeks. Despite having some legit talent on offense, this group has struggled, but the defense has picked up the slack ranking No. 8 nationally in success rate.

Tennessee also enters the game at 5-5 under a new head coach, but there is momentum building in Knoxville. Hendon Hooker is giving the Vols great play at quarterback, but the defense has allowed over 40 points in three consecutive games.

The Jaguars look to have the defense that could slow down the Vols after the expected fast start by Heupel’s offense. Meanwhile, South Alabama has the talent to put up some points against a struggling Tennessee defense.

Add in the hangover effect after huge games against Kentucky and Georgia and this feels like a good spot for the underdog to hang around.

Give us the four touchdowns.

Best Bet: Baylor @ Kansas State (-1)

Dave Aranda is certainly making a huge push for coach of the year honors as the Bears stand at 8-2 and No. 11 in the latest top 25. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has done wonders with this offense in year one as the Bears are efficient and explosive. Meanwhile, the defense is stout against the run but has been burned in the passing game.

Chris Klieman and K-State have quietly put four consecutive wins together as the Wildcats are still a threat in the Big 12. The Wildcats have an offense that typically doesn’t make mistakes with quarterback Skylar Thompson and a defense that is solid at each level.

An unranked team favored against a ranked team — it’s usually that way for a reason. K-State gets Baylor at a great spot in the schedule and finds a way to get another big home win thanks to its season-long great play in the extended red zone.

Lay the small number as K-State will climb back into the top 25 as the Big 12 keeps delivering.

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