Luckett's Locks: Sweet 16 Best Bets

The college basketball season is quickly coming to an end. After a fun first weekend that was filled with favorites covering left and right (29-19 ATS), things will get heated up with more high-leverage hoops this weekend. A chalky first weekend has created a better second weekend.

The matchups over Thursday and Friday are excellent with each No. 1 and No. 2 seed advanced to the regional semifinals.

We still have 13 of the top 15 teams in KenPom still in the field. That means an exciting weekend of postseason basketball is on deck. After making some best bet picks for the first round of the tournament, we’re back to do it again in the Sweet 16.

Luckett’s Locks has six best bets for this weekend. Unders and underdogs will get us to the window as we see the pendulum swing after the favorites owned the NCAA Tournament. Dogs are going to howl.

Let’s get after it.

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Clemson (+7.5) vs. Arizona + Under 152.5

Perhaps no one in the first weekend outside of UConn played a better 80 minutes of basketball than Clemson in the first weekend. The Tigers hammered trendy No. 11 seed New Mexico on Friday and controlled Baylor No. 3 seed Baylor on Sunday. That gives Brad Brownell his second Sweet 16 appearance.

Arizona recorded consecutive double-digit wins against Long Beach State and Dayton to advance after losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament. But this is mostly a play with Clemson. The Tigers are a top-25 team at Bart Torvik over the last month and are 8-1 ATS as a dog this season with six outright wins. Put Arizona on upset alert.

Clemson also likes to play at a slow pace. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games for both Arizona and Clemson. Ride the trend.

Tag the underdog and under together in Los Angeles.

Gonzaga (+5.5) vs. Purdue

Purdue is elite on offense, and Zach Edey is a load to handle. But quietly, Gonzaga has hit the gas over the last month.

Mark Few’s team is a top-10 team over the last month with a top-five offense. The Bulldogs have the ammo to keep up with a Purdue offense that can sometimes be impossible to stop. Neither team has a true star guard that could take this game over. But Gonzaga has had better recent NCAA Tournament success.

Purdue is laying too many points in this spot. The Bulldogs knock out the No. 1 seed in Detroit. Do not be afraid to sprinkle the moneyline.

Duke (+4.5) vs. Houston

In their last two games against power conference competition, Houston got crushed by Iowa State and needed overtime to survive against Texas A&M. The elite defense has taken a bit of a step back, and injuries are catching up to the Cougars.

Meanwhile, you could make the argument that Duke has been surging outside of the consecutive losses to North Carolina and NC State.

The Blue Devils have been a top-five team over the last month with a top-25 offense and defense. That is enough balance to finally end Houston’s run.

Unfortunate injury luck will knock Houston out of the tournament. Duke becomes the favorite to come out of the South Region on Friday night. Take the points. Sprinkle the moneyline.

Creighton (+2.5) vs. Tennessee + Under 144.5

Perhaps the most evenly matched game of the Sweet 16 will occur in Detroit. Creighton and Tennessee are both top-10 teams. Expect a heated contest that likely comes down to the final couple of possessions. Creighton’s recent form tells us to back the Blue Jays.

Greg McDermott’s team has been a top-15 offense and defense over the last month. Tennessee’s defense has remained elite, but the offense has slipped to sub-80. Recent performances against Mississippi State and Texas were ugly. Creighton will dare the Vols to make three-point shots. That is bad news for the Vols.

Creighton is a live dog who plays at a slow pace. Tag the under to your underdog play. Do not be surprised if this game is decided in the 60s.