Monday Huddle: Remember November
For the second time in three seasons, Kentucky has lost three consecutive SEC games entering the final stretch of the season. Not much is going right for the Wildcats. Mark Stoops has now seen his team go 2-6 in SEC home games since throttling LSU in 2021. The Wildcats are reeling.
Not much is going right at the moment, but there is still football to be played. Kentucky is 0-3 against top-20 opponents this season and 5-0 against everyone else. According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, Alabama is the only remaining team on the Kentucky schedule ranked inside of the top 20. With some marquee games remaining, there is an opportunity to get this season turned around.
Things are certainly heading in a negative direction when you consider giving a big-picture look to the 2023 season. However, there is still a month left of football to be played where the Wildcats will be small road favorites twice, a double-digit home dog once, and in a toss-up contest on Thanksgiving weekend. Kentucky has a chance to change this team’s narrative over the next four weeks.
Will the Wildcats make us remember November? Only time will tell. KSR’s Monday Huddle is back to set the table for another football week in the Bluegrass.
First Down: We have life from the passing game
The Kentucky passing game has been one of the most disappointing developments for the 2023 season. Through seven games, we had not seen the consistency or breakthrough performance we were expecting for offensive coordinator Liam Coen‘s unit with NC State transfer Devin Leary at quarterback. That changed on Saturday night.
Against a top-15 Tennessee defense, Leary threw for 372 yards and two touchdowns completing 28 passes on 9.5 yards per attempt to eight different receivers. The explosive and efficient Kentucky passing game finally arrived in Week 9. Is it here to stay for November?
Kentucky hits the road this Saturday to face a Mississippi State passing defense that ranks No. 90 in yards per attempt, No. 102 in EPA/play, No. 120 in success rate, and No. 123 in QB rating. Everyone but Arkansas in SEC play has reached at least nine yards per attempt against the Bulldogs. The performance was so bad by the Hogs in the loss to Mississippi State that head coach Sam Pittman fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos immediately after the game.
Kentucky must use the strong passing game performance against Tennessee as a launching point for the rest of the season. In the outing, we saw Coen sprinkle in some tempo after the offense moved the chains, and the Wildcats operated out numerous times out of empty. The offensive line created consistent clean pockets (16.3% pressure rate) against a dangerous Tennessee passing rush and Leary rewarded that work with 12 completions for 15 yards or more for a 30.8 percent explosive pass rate.
Dane Key (7 receptions on 8 targets for 113 yards) had the best game of his young career, Barion Brown made some competitive catches, and the tight end/tailback position chipped in with 12 receptions on 16 targets. Kentucky needs this to continue moving forward.
Against future opponents, Kentucky should be able to run the football better (83 non-sack rushing yards on 3.6 yards per rush against Tennessee), but this team is going to go as far as the passing game can take them down the stretch. Just a week ago, we heard Mark Stoops talk about how the program had to make strides in the passing game. We have talked ad nauseam about growth in the passing game being the next big step for the program to take. We saw a glimpse of that on Saturday. Now we need to see the Cats stack good throw games together.
Kentucky needs wins the most, but monitoring the progress of this passing game is something we should all monitor closely.
Second Down: Secondary needs to make strides fast
We will spend most of this week talking about Mississippi State’s pass defense and how this should be a very good week for Kentucky’s passing game. However, we also need to spend some time on Kentucky’s secondary. The Wildcats are getting ineffective play in the backend, and the numbers back that up.
Kentucky ranks No. 128 in defensive passing success rate. Zion Childress leads the team in missed tackle percentage (25.0%). Due to injuries to Jalen Geiger and Jordan Lovett, Kentucky has turned to true freshman Ty Bryant and asked the former legacy recruit to play 117 defensive snaps over the last two weeks. After getting burned on a go-route in the second quarter, cornerback Jordan Robinson was benched, and we saw Cincinnati transfer JQ Hardaway play double-digit snaps for the first time since Week 3. For the second week in a row, Andru Phillips missed three tackles for the second week in a row and now owns an alarming missed tackle percentage (33.3%) in SEC play.
There are a ton of problems in the secondary right now. An argument can be made that the roster-building process to create this position room failed the team. The Wildcats are playing multiple former transfers, and none are playing effective football. Maxwell Hairston has been a very good recruit and development story at cornerback, but Kentucky is getting some atrocious safety play, and that was supposed to be one of the biggest positional strengths on the team.
That is very, very concerning. Kentucky is having many issues on defense right now, but the biggest problem has been the play in the secondary. The Wildcats are struggling in coverage, and the safeties are being picked on. Position coaches Chris Collins and Frank Buffano have their work cut out for them in the final four games.
Do not be surprised if we see a youth movement with Bryant and Hardaway stealing a good percentage of the snap volume from some of the more experienced players ahead of them. In the offseason, some significant personnel decisions might need to be made, but for now, Kentucky must try to fix its problems with the resources available.
Getting healthy at safety is the first step. Playing better is the next. Kentucky has to get better production from the secondary starting right now.
Third Down: Knock down another door
Mark Stoops has done a lot of good things since he arrived in Lexington. Under the former Florida State defensive coordinator, we’ve seen Kentucky turn series with Florida and Louisville in a big way. The Wildcats have a pair of double-digit win seasons with ranked finishes. The recruiting floor and ceiling have also been raised and the university along with donors have financially invested in the program in a big way for really the first time ever.
With all that said, there are some other big-picture tasks that Stoops has yet to accomplish. Last week, Kentucky missed another great opportunity to beat Tennessee. The bad results in that rivalry series still cast a dark cloud over the program, but the Wildcats will get a chance to flush another bad streak in Week 9.
Under Stoops, Kentucky is 0-5 against Mississippi State on the road with four consecutive losses by double-digits. This program has not won an SEC West road game since winning in Starkville in 2008. Add in some more losses to rotational opponents and Stoops is 0-11 outright against SEC West opponents away from Kroger Field. To move forward, Kentucky must end this miserable streak.
The Wildcats will get a great opportunity on Saturday night at Davis-Wade Stadium.
For the first time under Stoops, Kentucky will be a favorite in an SEC West road game. Now the Wildcats have to finish the deal. After blowing consecutive toss-up games at home, this football team cannot afford to lose to a team that it is better than. Kentucky must handle its business on Saturday night.
The next four weeks are littered with some great opportunities. To make a good run to close the season, Kentucky must win in Starkville. There is no getting around it. Want us to remember November? Go win a football game in Starkville.
The week ahead at KSR
Kentucky is reeling thanks to a three-game SEC losing streak. The last two of those coming at home. Getting this team on the road might not be a bad thing. The Wildcats have a chance to get their problems corrected in Week 9, but they’ll have to do it inside a venue that has been a house of horrors for the program for nearly two decades.
Another big moment in the season has arrived. Things could start to unravel for the Wildcats with another SEC loss. But a win could begin a 3-1 November with two meaningful games in the last two weeks along with the rare chance to host Alabama late in the year. There is still plenty to play for. KSR will be here throughout the week as the Wildcats get prepared to make another trip to Starkville.
We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday and will publish an updated depth chart once it goes live. From there, practice reports and daily podcasts will take over as Saturday quickly approaches.
Over at KSR+, we will be previewing the matchup all week before releasing a lengthy scouting report on Mississippi State on Thursday, and some against-the-spread picks on Friday.
Can Kentucky finally win in Starkville? We will find out soon.
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