NCAA Tournament bracket outlook for all six SEC teams
Six teams from the SEC were left standing after the bracket release on Selection Sunday. Their seasons will continue later this week into the 2022 NCAA Tournament as they’ll all fight for a shot at the Final Four and National Championship.
At the top, both Kentucky and Auburn earned #2 seeds in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively. While Tennessee felt they should have earned a #2 seed, as well, they have a favorable path as a #3 seed in the South Region. Arkansas earned a #4 seed in a stacked East Region where they’ll be joined by Alabama who earned a #6 seed. Finally, LSU joins Auburn in the Midwest with a #6 seed as well.
Let’s break them all down.
#2 Kentucky – East Region
The East Region is led by Baylor, but Kentucky is a trendy pick to make it out to the Final Four. Even so, their path in the NCAA Tournament has some high-quality teams in the way. First off is MAC Champion Saint Peter’s, who ripped off seven straight to get their auto-bid. While on a hot streak, the Wildcat’s open as a 15-point favorite over the Peacocks.
Their Round of 32 game will be intriguing. On one hand, they could face #10 San Francisco as an at-large out of the WCC. They have wins over Davidson, UAB and Arizona State while also keeping their losses against Gonzaga reasonable. The other option is a bigger storyline with the potential first-ever meeting between Kentucky and Murray State. The OVC’s champion is undersized but a feisty team that, if they advance, would be on a 21-game win streak.
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would get no easier for UK. Their worst-case scenario would be Purdue, who has the length to match up with Oscar Tshiebwe plus a star in Jaden Ivey. If the Boilermakers do trip up, ending up with a meeting with either Chris Beard’s defense, Devin Askew and Texas, or ACC Champion Virginia Tech instead is no consolation.
If Kentucky can survive, they may find a more favorable matchup in the Elite 8. Baylor is the reigning champion, but injuries have plagued Scott Drew’s team with inconsistency. While North Carolina is playing much better to end the year, Kentucky did beat them by 29 already this season. A second potential UK transfer matchup with Johnny Juzang and UCLA would probably be the Wildcat’s worst matchup in the Elite Eight. It’s not the easiest path, but it’s a far more favorable stretch than some of the other SEC teams have.
#2 Auburn – Midwest Region
For an unknown team at the moment, Auburn is in an unknown bracket down in the Midwest. If the Tigers can get back to playing their best, you can certainly justify them making it through the NCAA Tournament. Jacksonville State’s three-point shooting to start could be a concern in the first game, but the Gamecock’s lack of size should give Auburn a good chance to get off to a strong start.
While Miami’s backcourt could give them problems, the Hurricanes’ size would make it another favorable matchup for Smith and Kessler. They’d rather see Miami advance over USC, who has the size to match and a pace that could give the Tigers trouble.
Wisconsin is their most likely Sweet 16 opponent, but they could see a team like LSU or Iowa State too. Auburn handled LSU by 15 in their only meeting of the year and, if Player of the Year candidate Johnny Davis is still hindered by an ankle injury, they’d welcome a meeting with the Badgers.
The Tigers’ potential opponent in the Elite Eight could be anyone from #1 Kansas, #4 Providence, or #5 Iowa to upset picks that include San Diego State, Richmond or South Dakota State. That kind of parity is what makes the Midwest such a toss-up. Auburn at its best more than makes the case as the favorite to make it to New Orleans. With that said, there are more than enough teams that can trip up the Auburn team we’ve seen recently.
#3 Tennessee – South Region
Tennessee not earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament was a big talking point after the bracket was released. Take solace though, Vol fans. Of all the SEC teams, their path to the Final Four is the easiest to picture. First up is Big South Champion Longwood who’s won 19 of their last 20. The Lancers’ only problem is they’re just as bad at defending the three as they are at shooting it themselves. Considering that’s been the Volunteers calling card as of late, they should cruise in that one.
Next up would be a favorable matchup with either Colorado State or Michigan. If it’s the Rams, the Vols have more than enough defensive prowess to give David Roddy trouble. If it’s Michigan, their inexplicable appearance in the field would come to an end against a team playing as well as Tennessee.
The second weekend would kick it up a notch, but it’s not impossible for Tennessee. If things don’t go according to plan, they could see EJ Liddell and Ohio State or Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago. If everything does go as planned, they’d run into #2 Villanova. Although they lost to the Wildcats by 18 earlier this season, Tennessee has come a long way since then. Advancing past Villanova would set up another rematch with Arizona. Even as a 31-3 PAC-12 Champion, the Wildcats likely wouldn’t want to see UT again. Although it was played in Knoxville, the Volunteers handed them their first loss of the season by four. The status of Kerr Kriisa moving forward could keep that Elite Eight match even on a neutral site.
Considering the easy run in their region, the familiarity they have with their top seeds and their recent play, Rick Barnes could very well make the second Final Four of his career in 2022.
#4 Arkansas – West Region
The Razorbacks are one of two SEC teams with the unlucky fate of landing in the West region. They’re even more unlucky as they’re on the top half of that bracket, meaning they’ll likely have to face #1 overall Gonzaga to make it past the Sweet 16. Even so, Arkansas has a tough draw to even get to that point.
First up for them is #13 Vermont. The Catamounts will likely be a trendy 4-13 upset pick as they’ve won 22 of their last 23 games. If Arkansas wins, they’d then likely face a deep 23-9 UConn team with wins over Auburn and Villanova. After that, their reward for getting past the first weekend will likely be the Zags.
Even with their hot run to end this season, it’s hard to imagine Arkansas making it out of a matchup with the Bulldogs. Let’s say they do, though. That would surely mean they’ve gotten rid of the biggest obstacle in their way? Maybe not. Even if the Razorbacks make their second straight Elite 8, they’d meet Duke, Texas Tech, Alabama or Michigan State there.
The Razorbacks have a lot going for them as a team heading into the NCAA Tournament. The only thing that isn’t is their land mine-filled region.
#6 Alabama – West Region
Alabama will join Arkansas in the West, except the Crimson Tide have an easier start than the Razorbacks. With that said, so much of Alabama’s NCAA Tournament run will depend on how they look from Friday afternoon and on. First up for them will be the winner of the Rutgers and Notre Dame play-in. The Scarlet Knights picked up big wins down the stretch and the Fighting Irish finished top three in the ACC.
If Alabama advances, they’d likely face a Texas Tech team with an incredible defense that nearly won the Big 12 Tournament. From there, they’re probably facing March Madness staples in either Coach K’s Duke team or Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad. All of that stands in the way of what is most likely a Gonzaga rematch for a Final Four trip.
Alabama remains one of the biggest question marks in this whole field. With wins over Baylor, Houston, Tennessee and Arkansas, they have a resume that suggests they could knock off Texas Tech, Michigan State or Duke. They’re even one of the three teams that beat Gonzaga this season, so even that’s not out of the question.
They also happen to be the team that lost to Vanderbilt, Missouri and Georgia at the bottom of the SEC. That suggests they may not even survive the Round of 64. They have the guard play and three-point shooting to give any and every team in the West trouble. They’re also inconsistent enough that both the 11 seeds they face would be happy to try their luck against them.
#6 LSU – Midwest Region
In the same region as Auburn, LSU’s defense justifies them as a team that could make some noise. Their offense, though, is now not the only issue that the Tigers need to address. After the firing of Will Wade, they’ll play in this tournament under new management. Assistant coach turned interim Kevin Nickelberry has previous head coaching experience at Howard and Hampton, but this is hardly the time to deal with the complications of a coaching swap.
Defensively, you could toss LSU in as one of the teams that could make a run in this region. When it’s at its best, that defense can handle an Iowa State team that ended their year 8-12, a Wisconsin team that could be compromised with the Davis injury, or an Auburn team they’re familiar with that hasn’t played its best as of late.
You could also see the Tigers failing to muster enough points to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, let alone their first game. Nickelberry has been in the program for three years, but he’ll have just a handful of days to pull this team back together. That’s also limited time to find the Tigers some offense before they have to play on Friday night. It’s a region that’s there to be won, but it remains to be seen what LSU will even look like by the time they take the floor.
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