Numbers To Know Heading In To The Florida Game

The only numbers that really matter.

At this point we know the narratives – Is Florida a legit title contender? Can the Cats put it together? Will Ryan Lemond look like Patric Young if he continues to use Body Shapes Medical? We know what’s at stake – Can Florida nab a 1 seed? Can Kentucky get a quality win and move up in the ranks? So there’s no point in rehashing any of that. Instead let’s look at the cold hard facts, let’s look at the numbers both teams are sporting coming in to the game tomorrow.

Kentucky so far this season:

Points per game: 78.8 or 33rd overall
Rebounds per game: 41.9 or 7th overall
FG percent: .468 or 60th overall
Adjusted Def Eff: 95.9 or 33rd in the Ken Pom

What it means: It means what we already knew. Kentucky is a great offensive team and could use a great performance from Willie to boost them defensively.

Florida so far this season:

Points per game: 71.2 or 182nd overall
Rebounds per game: 37 or 87th overall
FG percent: 46.1 or 82nd overall
Adjusted Def Eff: 90.9 or 7th in the Ken Pom

What it means: Honestly, I was a little surprised by the numbers. I knew Florida was a great defensive team, but I didn’t know they would be behind UK in all of those offensive categories.

Performance against similar opponents:

Hosting Tennessee: UK won by 8, Florida won by 26
At Arkansas: UK lost by 2, Florida won by 2
At Auburn: UK won by 8, Florida won by 7
At Miss State: UK won by 10, Florida won by 11

What it means: In games that weren’t blowouts (I excluded Florida’s 33 point win over Texas A&M), UK and Florida had pretty similar performances. That said, Florida has been on the giving end of a lot more beat downs than Kentucky, and that shouldn’t be ignored.

Random numbers of interest:

Florida’s average final margin on the road? +4. (Removing a 26 point blowout against Jacksonville)
Florida’s average final margin at home? +14. (Removing a 42 point blowout against Savannah State)
Florida has only won 1 game while scoring under 65 points.
Florida has only given up 70+ points in one game during regulation (two if you count the final from their Ark overtime game).
Kentucky has only scored less than 70 five times this season. Only one of those was a loss (to Baylor).
Florida only has two losses, both by 6 points or fewer. They also have five wins by 6 points or fewer. So while close games aren’t their comfort zone, it’s not a secret weakness either.
Even against a weak schedule and a weak SEC, Florida has only scored more than 75 points in 7 games in regulation.

What it means: There has been a huge difference between on-the-road Florida and at-home Florida – but generally speaking they are a pretty clutch team regardless of arenas. If Kentucky scores more than 70, they have a good chance to win – which meshes well with their 78.8 ppg average.

So what do these numbers suggest? Hopefully it paints a clearer picture of just how important the UK O vs Florida D will be – so let’s hope James Young brings his shooting touch to the arena. If you ask me, the home court advantage just may be the difference tomorrow so…

Go Cats.