Oscar Tshiebwe's NBA Draft stock is still on the rise
Being a terrific, multi-year college player doesn’t always mean it will translate to the NBA. In most cases, it doesn’t. The league is built on star power, most of which has recently come from one-and-done recruits or overseas prospects. Players that spend more than one season in college typically do so for good reason; the step-up in NBA competition is ten times that of making the leap from high school to college.
Over the last 15 or so years, the National Player of the Year award winners have been either elite freshmen or experienced veterans. Young names such as Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson are countered by the likes of seniors Jimmer Fredette, Tyler Hansbrough, Frank Mason, and most recently Luka Garza. The three freshmen listed above all went No. 1 or No. 2 in the NBA Draft. Then you have the likes of Mason and Garza, who went in the second round despite great individual seasons. Fredette and Hansborough went in the lottery, but never carved out long-term NBA roles.
Some recent prior NPOY winners such as Jalen Brunson and Buddy Hield needed a few years in the league before making significant impacts, which they now do for the Mavericks and Kings, respectively. Everyone takes a different path.
The 2021-22 Kentucky Wildcats have a special talent of its own who is in deep contention for this year’s National Player of the Year award: center Oscar Tshiebwe. After back-to-back performances of 29 points, 17 rebounds against Georgia, and 30 points, 13 rebounds against Vanderbilt, his NPOY campaign is officially underway.
He’s the most dominant rebounder college basketball has seen in decades and flexes an ever-expanding offensive game night in and night out. That being said, his NBA Draft stock is currently in the Mason and Garza range as opposed to Fredette and Hansbrough.
You won’t find Tshiebwe’s name on many mock drafts. Kentucky freshman guard TyTy Washington is constantly lauded as a guaranteed first-round pick, potentially sliding into the lottery. But Washington’s favorite pick-and-roll partner as of late isn’t nearly as talked about. Only Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman has Tshiebwe projected as a draft pick this summer, falling to the Indiana Pacers in the late second round at No. 54.
The argument against Tshiebwe’s NBA potential is easy to pinpoint on the surface: he’s undersized at 6-foot-9, doesn’t stretch the floor beyond the arc, isn’t an elite rim protector, and hasn’t shown playmaking abilities. In the modern NBA, that archetype hasn’t been favored.
Or, at least that’s the narrative.
The NBA is also a league littered with niche players; specialists, if you will. Former Kentucky Wildcat Jarred Vanderbilt is a perfect example of someone who has perfected his craft at rebounding better than maybe 10 players in the entire world. For that, even with a putrid offensive game, he finds plenty of minutes for the Minnesota Timberwolves and is having a stellar season as a result.
Tshiebwe is similar to Vanderbilt, who is also 6-foot-9, in their rebounding prowess. Had Vando played a full, healthy season in Lexington, there’s a realistic chance he’s putting up similar numbers to what Thsiebwe is doing right now. Vanderbilt fell all the way to the second round in the 2018 NBA Draft but is now considered one of the league’s best overall glass cleaners.
Being a specialist will be Tshiebwe’s early way into NBA playing time. His rebounding skills should translate to the next level. He might be 6-foot-9, but a 7-foot-4 wingspan and massive hands help counter that. Plus, Tshiebwe is already a better offensive player than Vanderbilt is right now.
We can go down the list of players who made successful, decade-long careers in the NBA just by hustling and rebounding. Kenneth Faried was a historically great rebounder for Morehead State and brought that same energy to the NBA for eight years. Reggie Evans, a 6-foot-8 center, played 13 seasons in the league despite never averaging more than 6.0 points per game; his elite rebounding kept him on the floor.
The game has obviously changed since Evans left the NBA in 2015, and he might not have been able to last as long as he did in today’s game. Evans couldn’t shoot but that aspect of a center’s game didn’t matter nearly as much as it does now.
Luckily for Tshiebwe, he’s displayed the ability to knock down 15-foot jumpers on a consistent basis. He has enough post moves in his bag to keep defenders guessing, makes over 70 percent of his free throws, and possesses a truly unstoppable motor. Those traits alone will make him a more intriguing prospect to NBA franchises as time moves along, particularly that last one.
Looking across the league right now, several NBA teams already feature non-shooting big men who aren’t the caliber of rebounder that Tshiebwe is; Mason Plumlee of the Hornets and Alex Len of the Kings quickly come to mind. If those two can carve out starting roles, then there’s no reason to believe Tshiebwe can’t either.
The hesitation to place Tshiebwe anywhere in the first round makes sense though, at least for now. He was a special rebounder during his season-and-a-half with West Virginia, but the impact he’s making for Kentucky is leaps and bounds what he’d shown in the past.
It might just take some time for the NBA scouts to take more notice.
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