Presenting the 2017 Kentucky Derby Field

The all important post-position draw for Saturday’s 143rd Run for the Roses was held earlier today.  Here is a brief rundown of the field with post positions and comments on each runner:

1 – Lookin at Lee has run a few races that make you think he might have a chance to get a piece of this thing in the end.  While the rail draw is far from ideal, he is a certified closer and early position means less to him than other horses that prefer to be more forwardly placed.  He has yet to win a 2 turn race in 6 attempts.

2 – Thunder Snow is a very nice race horse.  His 2yo European form leaves no doubt about his class.  It is fair to question how good a horse he is on dirt as it is impossible to gauge the quality of the competition he beat in Dubai over the winter.  In a year where the Americans still seem below average as a group, I’m not overly eager to leave this guy off any meaningful tickets.  He was still running hard at the end of the mile and 3/16ths UAE Derby, and that’s farther than any of his opponents on Saturday have ever raced.  Drawn far inside from post 2 is likely not what connections were hoping for, but Thunder Snow is probably better suited than any horse in the field to handle the crowd of horses that will be merging into his path.  He faced an 18 horse field in his 2nd career start in the Coventry Stakes and successfully negotiated a 16 horse field last time out in the UAE Derby.  He got his first tour of the Churchill Downs race track on Tuesday morning, and exercise rider Daragh O’Donohoe was very pleased with how he moved over the surface.  Feels imprudent to ignore.

3 – Fast and Accurate won the Spiral Stakes over the polytrack surface at Turfway Park.  Connections have publicly stated that they are intent on making the lead with their colt.  I’m not quite sure whether he is fast enough to do that, but I guess we’ll see.  He finished 5th of 9, beaten more than 11 lengths, in his lone start on a conventional dirt surface at Parx against maidens.  It’s difficult to envision a more implausible result than this horse finishing in any position that would determine wagering payouts.

4 – Untrapped is the winner of a 6 1/2 furlong maiden race.  His speed figures have progressively deteriorated in each of his last 3 races, and he finished a distant 6th in the most competitive field he has faced to date in the Arkansas Derby.  Need I say more?

5 – Always Dreaming is at or near the top of many “expert” handicappers’ list of likely winners, and rightfully so.  He soundly beat two very good horses in State of Honor and Gunnevera in the Florida Derby, and he is the only horse in the field with 2 wins at 9 furlongs.  His work last Friday was a bullet :59 and 3 with an impressive looking gallop-out to boot.  However, he has been overly aggressive in his routine morning gallops.  Trainer Todd Pletcher has been sending him out in the pre-dawn hours as soon as the track opens, before the brunt of the public onlookers have arrived.  The last three days the horse has galloped with draw reins in an increased effort to calm him down.  It seems to have done the trick as he has been better behaved since that implementation.  Still, how will the seemingly high strung colt react to a crowd of 150,000 on Derby day?  His sire, Bodemeister, was quite head strong as well.  There was absolutely no holding him back in his races.  He led nearly every step of the way in both the Derby and Preakness, setting wildly swift internal fractions, but could not sustain his drive to the wire and was humbled to the runner-up spot in both races by I’ll Have Another.  Always Dreaming can absolutely win this race, and he should be one of the top 3 choices in the wagering.  My fear is that there is just as good a chance that his mind gets the best of him, and he runs half his race during the walkover, in the paddock and post parade.

6 – State of Honor is a big, strapping colt that will certainly have something to say about the pace of the Derby.  He’s been the first call leader in 3 of his last 5 races and the 2nd call leader in 5 of his last 6.  He has been training impressively at Churchill since the middle of April and looks to be sitting on a big effort.  The primary concern with this horse is that he has lost ground in the final furlong in 4 of his last 5 races, all at shorter distances than the Derby.  He will certainly have his impact on the race, but seems unlikely to visit the winners’ circle.

7 – Girvin is undefeated in 3 starts on conventional dirt.  There are two considerable issues to address regarding the Louisiana Derby winner’s chances of taking home the roses.  First, how tough was the competition in New Orleans?  Fairgrounds shippers were terrible during the Keeneland meet, and the group running behind Girvin in those prep races on the bayou has not yet proven their mettle as true stakes caliber horses.  Second, Girvin has been battling hoof issues – at least since his win in the Louisiana Derby.  Trainer Joe Sharp has been training the colt in Z-bar shoes, and he moved the horse from the Churchill Downs training center to Keeneland to prepare for the Derby so that he could swim him at a nearby rehab facility.  Girvin put in a very solid work over the Keeneland surface on Saturday morning, going 5 furlongs in :59 and 3.  The work was his first in 2 weeks and had been pushed back several times due to the issues with his feet.  How much can you trust a horse that has spent more time cross-training in the water than he has galloping on the race track over the last two weeks?

8 – Hence is the wise guy horse this year.  He won the most productive prep race of the year in the Sunland Derby.  Runner-up Conquest Mo Money filled that same spot in the Arkansas Derby.  Third place finisher Hedge Fund just got beat at the wire for all the money in the Illinois Derby.  Irap, who ran 4th at Sunland, beat Practical Joke, Tapwrit, J Boys Echo, and McCraken to take down the Bluegrass at 31/1.  Hence looks razor sharp in both his works and morning gallops at Churchill Downs.  The biggest concern is his running style.  He is a closer, and he will need a strong pace up front and an uneventful trip in order to get the job done.

9 – Irap was 0 for 7 lifetime prior to winning the Bluegrass Stakes.  He bested a field that was easily the most accomplished of any Derby prep this year at Keeneland.  The result was so preposterous at the time that it was difficult to know what to make of it.  Given the results of his fellow Sunland Derby competitors (see just above with Hence), it seems most prudent to give Irap his due as a legitimate Grade 2 winner who could just be improving at the right time.

10 – Gunnevera is as honest as any horse in the field.  He will lay near the back of the pack and commence his late run with a little less than a half mile to go.  The problem with this running style is that the horse’s success is dependent on two variables that are completely outside his control – the pace of the race and getting a clean trip.  Back of the pack closers need a fast pace up front so that the leaders (and those in close pursuit) will tire late in the race and come back to the field just as the closers are making their finishing kick.  They also need racing luck in the form of a clean trip.  A 20 horse field can produce a very crowded race track.  Horses can get stuck behind slower horses with no way out.  Their momentum can be stopped by a horse in front of them veering into their path.  There are all sorts of potential traps that can derail a closer’s bid to get to the front.  IF there is an honest pace and Javier Castellano can negotiate an orderly route, Gunnevera‘s best races say that he is capable of pulling off an upset and taking home the roses.  It’s more likely though, that he helps fill out the back of trifectas and supers.

11 – Battle of Midway has been forwardly placed in 3 of his 4 races, and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has stated intentions to hold the horse back in a stalking position for the Derby.  Big time breeders Don Alberto and Winstar Farm purchased this colt after the Santa Anita Derby, so big things are expected of him.  I’m just not convinced that those big things will begin in Louisville.

12 – Sonneteer is a maiden.  He has never won a race of any kind in 10 tries.  He ran 4th in the Arkansas Derby and 2nd in the Rebel.  The horses that finished behind him in those efforts are quite ordinary to say the least.  Also a late runner, he will need a heady, sober ride from jockey Kent Desormeaux just to finish in the top half of the field.

13 – J Boys Echo is a bit of a conundrum.  His win in the Gotham produced the highest Beyer speed figure (102) earned by any 3yo colt this year.  That race was very impressive as he closed from off the pace to win going away over a track that was incredibly speed biased.  The problem is that 102 Beyer is sandwiched in between a pair of 84s, and the numbers prior to his last 3 races were even less impressive.  So his Gotham win seems to be the anomaly.  He has shown he is capable of being in the picture, but I’d need more than a one race validation to give him serious consideration for win honors.

14 – Classic Empire seems to have righted the ship.  His determined victory in the Arkansas Derby was workmanlike, and not jaw-dropping fast, but it was everything you wanted to see to know that the 2yo champ has his mind back on business.  He is a perfect 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs, has been training very well since the win at Oaklawn, and his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile tally indicates that his best effort is certainly good enough to win on Saturday.

15 – McCraken is a perfect 3 for 3 at Churchill Downs and is training as well or better than any horse on the grounds.  His Bluegrass result was disappointing, but he needed the race and has definitely moved forward since.  He is going to run the best race of his life on Saturday.  We’ll see if it is good enough.

16 – Tapwrit is another colt that has been training incredibly well since arriving at Churchill.  He lost all chance at the break of the slowly run Bluegrass Stakes and never really did much running in a very dull effort.  If you draw a line through that race, given that he’s come back and trained very well since, his form looks pretty good.  He beat State of Honor by a commanding 4+ lengths in Tampa and was a closing 2nd behind McCraken prior to that.  He was the second choice in the Bluegrass, but the feeling here is that he offers very good value – especially in the exotics – at much longer odds on Saturday.

17 – Irish War Cry had two of the most impressive prep race victories in the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial.  He threw in a complete clunker in between when running 7th in the Fountain of Youth.  He pretty much had things his own way in the two wins, but was unable to get clear and got shuffled behind horses in the Fountain of Youth debacle – something worth considering in a crowded 20 horse field.  However, unlike J Boys Echo who also has 1 race that does not look like the others, Irish War Cry‘s bad race looks to be the outlier.  Look for him to run big in Louisville.

18 – Gormley enters the Derby as the most accomplished west coast representative.  His win as a 2yo in the Grade 1 Frontrunner as well as wins in the Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby have established him as the best California has to offer.  The problems with Gormley are that he was soundly beaten the one time he faced runners from outside California in the Breeders’ Cup, and his speed figures have declined in every race he has run this year.  It’s difficult to make a case that he’s a top contender.

19 – Practical Joke shows up to every race with a solid effort and a place on the podium.  He’s earned his spot in the starting gate as one of the most accomplished horses in the field.  It just feels like the distance might be too much for him, especially when you consider the added distance he will have to cover as a result of being drawn this far outside.  My gut tells me he will ultimately be best as a one-turn miler.

20 – Patch only has one eye, in case you hadn’t heard.  He ran 2nd in a bad Louisiana Derby behind Girvin.  The Derby will be just his 4th lifetime start.  The horse is likely to improve and may well be a force in this division later in the season.  He was soundly outworked by stablemate Tapwrit in a morning drill at Churchill on Saturday, and it just feels like the Derby is a bit too much for him at this stage of his career.  The outside post won’t help.

Check back in later this week for full Oaks and Derby day previews with stakes race synopses.