Running backs might not matter, but Chris Rodriguez does

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Clark Brooks, an On3 contributor that curates SECStatCat.com, a website devoted to advanced stats across the Southeastern Conference. Brooks breaks down what Chris Rodriguez’s potential absence could mean to the University of Kentucky in 2022.

Though football fans find themselves in talking season, the BBN has been shaken over whispers regarding its star running back.

Following an uncharacteristic DUI arrest on Derby Day and a clerical error regarding a court appearance, Chris Rodriguez was already the topic of the wrong kinds of conversations during a slow sports news period. And now, all of a sudden, his future with the program is TBD. 

The cause? That also is TBD. But either way, there’s a growing consensus the Wildcats will have to develop a contingency plan just in case C-Rod isn’t available; whether that’s a half, a game, a month, or not at all. 

You don’t need me to point out that not having one of the SEC’s most prolific and efficient ball carriers in the fold is a big deal. Because, it sure as hell is. Plus, the school’s all-time rushing record is within his reach. Rodriguez is more than just a plug-and-play rusher between the tackles. 

Rodriguez’s impact extends beyond just the counting stats. His 42.0% First Down+TD Rate from 2020 is the conference’s best clip in at least a half-decade. Additionally, both his 92.5 Pro Football Focus Grade and 0.39 Expected Points Added/attempt (EPA) from that season are two of the best respective marks the SEC has produced recently. 

This past season, Rodriguez was the ONLY SEC RB with at least 50 carries that placed inside the league’s top 10 in YAC(yards after contact) average, Broken Tackle Rate, Negative Run Rate, Gumption Conversion Rate, and Explosive (10+) Rate. And if you needed further evidence that this dude is a hoss, this stat ought to do it. Since SEC StatCat has been charting offenses, one rusher has managed to average over 3.8 rush yards after contact back-to-back seasons: Mr. Rodriguez, who has done it three times. 

He is far from a perfect prospect. Haters will be quick to reference last year’s butterfingers. And as a bruiser, his breakaway speed isn’t top-notch. But as someone who charts every single offensive snap across the conference, I can tell you he consistently performs well in areas that deliver value. And as it stands today, it’s unclear if any current Cat is capable of carrying the torch.

Steady Freddy

In a game of violent real estate acquisition, a minimal requirement of any decent ball carrier is to gain yardage and keep the offense ahead of the chains. Considering the Cats are one of the most ground-heavy teams in the conference to start a set of downs, that modus operandi brings extra gravity to these spots. This past fall in meaningful minutes, only two other SEC offenses turned to the ground more on firsts than UK (45.5%). And if you recall, the Cats held down the No. 1 spot in that department during Eddie Gran’s last two seasons. 

In the most common situation in football, Rodriguez has certainly shown he’s an exceptional ball carrier. Like his overall clip from 2020, basically two-thirds of his first down carries ended in success while his 7.9 Y/A (yards per attempt), 4.9 YAC average, and 28.0% First Down+TD Rate all finished inside the conference’s top 3. That gaudy Success Rate of his was about 20 percentage points over the SEC average. With more of a bullseye on his back this past season, his first down cushion shrunk year-over-year. Sure, C-Rod was somewhat accustomed to operating without elite cushion – his YBC (yards before contact) finished outside the top 10 in 2020 – but his 1.97 figure last fall was well below standards and ranked in the 20’s within the conference. And with less room to work, both his efficiency and potency stumbled. Yet thanks to a top 10 Broken Tackle Rate and YAC average, Rodriguez still posted a top 8 Success Rate to start a set of downs. 

Last year, Smoke and McClain both averaged more rush yards before contact than Rodriguez yet finished with a worse Success Rate, Y/A, Stuff Rate, and BIG (20+) Run Rate. In fact, Smoke has failed to post a Success Rate north of 41% in these spots the last two years. Again, staying on schedule is often crucial for sustained offensive success. And, failing to log fruitful carries is a great way to not provide value. 

In case you were curious, the league-wide Success Rate after a situational win on first down (or securing at least half the yards to gain) was 61%. On the other hand, second-and-longs generated a lackluster 37.2% clip. And taking one more bold step into the statistical weeds, the average run with a distance to gain over five yards produces a negative EPA/attempt – or favors the defense in the long term goal of preventing points being scored. However, since Rodriguez consistently wins in such spots, Kentucky is an exception to that trend and thusly uses its run game to open up other attack avenues. 

Rodriguez is an Eraser

Most backs can take care of business attacking grass or following clean blocks. But since only a third of run plays wind up as “perfectly blocked”, a ball carrier has to be suited to deal with adversity, navigate traffic, and thrust forward. Distilling talent to its base form, it’s all about beating the guy across from you. And if you can beat multiple guys on the same rep, all the better; especially if you have to negate a mistake from a teammate to prevent losing ground. 

Most know Rodriguez isn’t prone to TFLs. In fact, his career 3.1% Negative Run Rate is less than half of the SEC average. Playing behind the Big Blue Wall is certainly a luxury. After all, not too many programs sport OL’s that graded inside PFF’s top 10 three-straight years. But this past season, biffs were more frequent, which led to more negative defensive contact. Rodriguez was smacked in the backfield on nearly 19% of his carries. But thanks to his gumption, the 224-pounder handled miscues masterfully. 

Back-to-back seasons, C-Rod cracked the conference’s top 3 in Gumption Conversion Rate, which is a fancy way to describe how good a rusher is at turning contact behind the line of scrimmage into a gain. In that time, no SECer sports a preferable figure than his 63.4% clip. In fact, no one else with over 25 carries with negative defensive contact tops 50%. Talk about being a mistake eraser. And to reiterate, this wasn’t over just 5, 10, or even 20 carry sample. He turned in 41 such attempts in 2022 – good for 4th-most within the league. 

While a terrific tackle breaker in most areas, Rodriguez was simply stupendous tallying bustouts when hit behind the line last year. Of his 83, 35 occurred on these attempts, which translated to a robust 85.7% Broken Tackle Rate. That figure was ten percentage points higher than the runner-up within the SEC. Fueled by the feistiness, no other SECer accumulated more yards than his 110. His relative metric might was further accentuated due to the fact he finished inside the SEC’s top 3 in Y/A, Success Rate, and First Down+TD Rate on these tries. With C-Rod’s carries omitted, the Cats would’ve generated a middling 8.8% TFL Rate – instead of their league-low 6.1% figure in standard time. 

Living up to the standards he set in 2020, Rodriguez’s burly ball carrying also showed up in short yardage situations. But despite zero negative carries with a distance to gain of three yards or less, a 1.21 YBC clip statically shackled his output. Interestingly enough, he was the only rusher in the SEC with 10 instances of contact behind the line on short porch carries last year. While his such Broken Tackle Rate and YAC average placed inside the conference’s top 2 and top 4, respectively, his Success Rate fell outside of the top-dozen. 

On UK’s remaining 39 designed rush attempts with negative contact, the team only amassed 23 yards. Smoke was particularly lousy finishing inside the conference’s bottom 10 in YAC average, Broken Tackle Rate, and Negative Rate. Point blank: the Wildcats have yet to discover another eraser.  

Behind the Chains

Passing is the more effective route for offenses to get back on track when behind the chains. But since defenses often lighten box counts and present size-able alleys between the tackles, the run game can provide occasional sparks. Still, the degree of difficulty remains tough. And not every back is cut out to deliver worthwhile carries with a big distance to gain.

Rodriguez appears to be one of those rushers. Other than Brian Robinson, no other conference back the last two seasons posted a +40% Success Rate when behind the chains. Plus on a per carry basis, his Y/A placed inside the top4 in that time with help of an impressive 4.8 YAC average. This past fall, he was noticeably potent thanks to finding space. Over a fifth of C-Rod’s runs topped ten yards, and none of his peers bested his 34.1% First Down+TD Rate. So, it should come as no surprise his 305 such yards finished as the 2nd-most within the conference. 

Again, Kentucky didn’t move backwards too often. So neither Rodriguez nor the team experienced a high percentage of snaps when disadvantaged by down and distance. FYI, Rocking the best overall Success Rate in the SEC has its benefits. But if C-Rod isn’t in the picture, the odds point to UK’s offense regressing and eventually attempting more tries behind the chains. With or without him, UK fortunately appears to have its bases covered if it finds itself off-schedule. Smoke, McClain, and Levis all averaged over 7.1 Y/A – good enough to place inside the SEC’s top 10 in 2022. Smoke and Levis even trumped Rodriguez in Success Rate. Still, Big Blue’s bell cow set a high bar. 

For Jimmies and Joes, X’s and O’s, and stats you just gotta know, visit SECStatCat.com.