Scouting Report: Iowa Hawkeyes
The postseason has arrived for Kentucky football. To end the year, the Cats will be facing a familiar opponent in a familiar place.
For the sixth time ever, Kentucky is the SEC’s representative in the Music City Bowl. For the second year in a row, the Wildcats will be facing Iowa in a bowl game.
After last year’s thrilling matchup in the Citrus Bowl, Mark Stoops will get to coach against his alma mater for the second consecutive postseason, but this year’s matchup has much less buzz going into the game. Both the Hawkeyes and Wildcats have had multiple player opt-outs, and each has added a QB transfer that will be leading their program next year. Both teams will have their eyes on 2023, but one more game must be played.
Let’s dive into Kirk Ferentz’s 24th Iowa football team.
Nuts and Bolts
No head coach in college football has been in one place longer than Kirk Ferentz.
An Iowa assistant coach under Hayden Fry from 1981-89, Ferentz moved on to be the head coach at Maine before a six-year stint coaching offensive line in the NFL. After the 1998 season, Ferentz returned to Iowa City.
The 67-year-old Michigan native has been there ever since.
Ferentz brought home Big Ten titles in 2002 and 2004 and recorded an undefeated regular season in 2015 as the Hawkeyes landed in the Rose Bowl. Iowa is 185-115 (115-83) under Ferentz with seven double-digit win seasons. The veteran has found another groove recently.
Following an 11-2 season in 2009, the Hawks hit some bumps in the road over the next five years going 34-30 with a losing season in 2012. However, Iowa has turned it around beginning with that special run in 2015.
Since the beginning of that season, Iowa is 63-25 with a pair of top-15 finishes through 2021. However, the team took a step back in 2022. Despite having a top-five defense, Iowa finished the season 7-5 thanks to the worst offense in the Power Five. Yet, this program nearly found a way to win another division title until an upset loss to Nebraska on Black Friday.
The Iowa football program is fairly healthy, but some big decisions must be made in the offseason. The Hawkeyes have already landed Michigan transfer Cade McNamara, and the hope is that this is the start of an offensive reset in Iowa City.
On Saturday, Iowa and Kentucky will meet on the gridiron for the second time. Kentucky owns a 1-0 series lead after last year’s thrilling win in the Citrus Bowl. The Hawkeyes are 3-5 in their last eight bowl games. Kentucky is 4-2 in their last six bowl games.
Out in the desert, Iowa is a 2-point favorite with a total of 31. That’s a projected final score of 16.5-14.5. Kentucky is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) this season and Iowa is 7-5. The under is 11-1 in Kentucky games and 8-4 in Iowa games. Kentucky is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games against Power Five competition. Iowa was 3-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
Iowa offense
Kirk Ferentz’s son, Brian, was brought back for year five as the primary play-caller at Iowa in 2022 after a very ugly 2021 season where the Hawkeyes ranked No. 120 in yards per play. The younger Ferentz was asked to coach quarterbacks for the first time in his coaching career this season, and the results are what many thought they would be.
Iowa has the worst offense in the Power Five and one of the least effective in all of college football. The numbers speak for themselves.
- Scoring: 17.4 (No. 123 overall)
- Success Rate (from CFB Graphs): 33.5% (No. 116 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 4.2 (No. 129 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 2.9 (No. 127 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 5.8 (T-120 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversions: 31.4% (No. 126 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 42.3% (No. 126 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 1.41 (No. 121 overall)
That is a lot of bad and not much good. To make matters even worse, Iowa will be without QB1 Spencer Petras after tearing both his labrum and rotator cuff in the Senior Day loss to Nebraska. QB2 Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal following the end of the regular season.
The Hawkeyes will be turning to a young quarterback to make his first career start in the Music City Bowl.
Joe Labas (6-4, 207, RFr.) was a mid three-star recruiting win for Iowa in the class of 2021 when the Greater Cleveland Area native flipped his commitment from Ball State in the summer before his senior season. In Iowa City, Labas has served as Iowa’s scout team quarterback for the last two seasons and will get his first shot at playing on New Year’s Eve.
There is no college tape on Labas, but the tall and skinny quarterback is a true dual threat who can make plays out of structure. There could be more zone read, boots, and design QB run elements added to the offense during bowl prep to take advantage of Labas’ skill set. However, this is still a run-first operation, and the Hawkeyes may have a future star at tailback.
Kaleb Johnson (6-0, 212, Fr.) was a top-500 recruiting win for the Hawkeyes in the class of 2022 out of Greater Cincinnati who has made a big impact during his first season in Iowa City. The true freshman leads the team in rushing yards (762), yards per rush (5.4), and rushing touchdowns (6). In the last month of the season, Johnson rushed for 502 yards and three touchdowns on 6.2 yards per rush while averaging 16.2 carries per game. Kentucky should expect a heavy workload from the new RB1 in Iowa City. Johnson will have a chance to be one of the best tailbacks in the Big Ten next season.
Iowa is no stranger to a workhorse tailback, but this offense also likes to throw the football to the tight end. Brian Ferentz will utilize a lot of 12 personnel, and the Hawkeyes will want to force-feed star Sam LaPorta (6-4, 249, Sr.)
The true senior is a legit NFL Draft prospect that leads this offense in targets (84), receptions (53), and receiving yards (601) by a wide margin. LaPorta is fresh off a knee scope after tearing his meniscus in Week 12 against Minnesota but is committed to playing one more football game with Iowa.
Look for the Hawkeyes to feature LaPorta in both the screen game and on some more vertical concepts as this is the offense’s only true difference-maker in the passing game. It also doesn’t help that starting wideout Arland Bruce IV has left the team for the transfer portal.
For years, Iowa has been known for its strong line-of-scrimmage play. For the second year in a row, that is no longer the case. The Hawks have struggled to create lanes in the run game and maintain clean pockets in pass protection. If Kentucky can create passing downs, getting pressure on the quarterback should be very feasible.
There is a lot of tape on play-caller Brian Ferentz. We know what Iowa wants to be on offense. The Hawkeyes are a pro-style offense that uses a tight end and fullback. Ferentz runs an outside zone offense and will give Kentucky a ton of two-back running game looks. Off the zone, play-action is a huge part of the attack, and the Hawkeyes will use it to try and create explosive plays.
But they have made some changes this season. Later in the year, Iowa went to more spread concepts and included some empty formations to help get the quick passing game going. They would also use a shotgun run game more often against lighter boxes. That could make the transition to a zone read game with Joe Labas more seamless.
The data tells us that this is one of the worst offenses in college football, but Iowa has a potential star at tailback and a quarterback that could enhance the ground game with some of his running ability. Kentucky must be ready to defend a different-looking Iowa attack on New Year’s Eve.
Iowa defense
Things need fixing on offense at Iowa, but the defense should be left alone. Phil Parker has been with the Hawkeyes since Kirk Ferentz’s first season in 1999 and has been the defensive play-caller in Iowa City since 2013. Parker has produced a top-25 nearly defense every year, and the Hawks have played at a top-10 level over the last four seasons.
Iowa’s 2022 defense might be the best of Parker’s tenure. There is a case to be made that the No. 1 defense in college football is wearing black and gold and calls Kinnick Stadium home. The data backs this up.
- Scoring: 14.4 (No. 6 overall)
- Success Rate: 33.1% (No. 12 overall)
- Yards Per Play: 4.1 (No. 1 overall)
- Yards Per Rush: 2.9 (No. 3 overall)
- Yards Per Attempt: 5.5 (No. 2 overall)
- 3rd/4th Down Conversions: 37.9% (No. 33 overall)
- Red Zone TD Rate: 41.2% (No. 6 overall)
- Points Per Drive: 1.23 (No. 3 overall)
This might be the best defense that Kentucky has seen this season and that’s with an SEC schedule that included four top-25 units. The Hawkeyes have balance and playmaking at all three levels in this zone-heavy 4-3/4-2-5 scheme.
In the trenches, Iowa has balance and depth. The top player can be found at defensive end. Lukas Van Ness (6-5, 275, RSo.) has NFL starter written all over him. The former mid three-star recruit out of the Chicago suburbs leads Iowa in pressures (43) and tackles for loss (9.5). Van Ness plays with heavy hands and overpowers tackles both in run fits and the pass rush. Kentucky must have a plan for No. 91.
On the interior, Logan Lee (6-5, 275, RJr.) is another player who will likely have a future on Sundays. The former top-500 recruit in the class of 2019 has recorded 48 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss. The defensive tackle is very active as a three-down playmaker.
Iowa has a healthy eight-man rotation for four spots on the defensive line and every player has flashed playmaking this season. This group has logged 63 tackles for loss and 27 sacks in 12 games. The Hawkeyes have a defensive front that plays with power against the run but can also get to the quarterback on passing downs. That makes things much easier for the back seven.
At the second level, Iowa’s off-ball linebackers are allowed to roam free and make a bunch of tackles. Perhaps no one was better at this than Jack Campbell (6-5, 246, Sr.). The Cedar Falls (Iowa) High product leads the defense in snaps (804) as the leader in the middle never comes off the field.
The unanimous All-American brought home the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker. Campbell is the size of a true outside linebacker but can thrive inside the box thanks to great instincts, foot agility, and the ability to knock runners backward. The superstar recorded 118 tackles this season with 3.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions. Campbell is a key cog in Iowa’s run support as he’s able to play clean and make tackles quickly thanks to strong processing skills. However, the veteran is also very good as a zone defender in coverage. The Mike ‘backer is the total package.
Playing next to Campbell is another tackling machine. Seth Benson (6-0, 232, RSr.) has recorded 87 tackles and is also a very good linebacker. The Hawkeyes might have the best second-level duo in college football as Benson and Campbell clean up the trash and create a lot of obvious passing downs so the pass rush can hunt.
In the secondary, Iowa gets a ton of ball production at cornerback. Parker calls for his cornerbacks to play with great eyes and to be physical at the top of routes. When that works, it leads to many havoc plays as tipped balls turn into interceptions.
The cornerback duo of Cooper DeJean (6-1, 209, So.) and Riley Moss (6-1, 193, Super) has been outstanding this season.
DeJean leads the team with four interceptions with half of those becoming a pick-six. After receiving All-American honors in 2021, Moss returned to Iowa for an extra season and has produced 10 pass breakups and two forced fumbles. The duo has combined to collect 81 solo tackles as both players can make plays in space and are very good at assignment execution. The Hawks owe a lot of their pass defense success to this duo.
At safety, Iowa will be without redshirt senior Kaevon Merriweather who has decided to opt-out of the Music City Bowl. That will be a significant loss, but Sebastian Castro (5-11, 207, RJr.) has played well when given opportunities.
Iowa is not super complex on defense. The Hawkeyes aren’t using a bunch of exotic blitz packages and their coverage schemes can be simple at times. But simple can play at an elite level. Perhaps no defense executes their specific scheme better than Iowa. This defense has played at a national championship level this season.
Iowa special teams
The “punt to win” brand is quite often the strongest in Iowa City. Kirk Ferentz plays a conservative brand of football, but that has led to a lot of wins over two decades in the Big Ten. Much of that is due to very strong punting and placekicking.
That has remained the same in 2022.
After losing Caleb Shudak to the NFL, Drew Stevens has stepped in at kicker to 16 of 18 attempts with both misses coming from 40-plus yards. Stevens also has a touchback rate of 56.9 percent, but the punter is the star at Iowa.
Tory Taylor ranks No. 6 nationally in punts per game (6.2), but most of that work has been efficient. Iowa ranks No. 15 nationally in net punting average (41.2) has pinned 32 punts inside the 20, and has seen 22 attempts travel over 50 yards. The Australian is a true weapon.
At punt returner, Iowa used Cooper DeJean in the last month of the season, and the former four-star recruit made a big difference averaging 17.6 yards per return. Meanwhile, Iowa’s kick coverage has been outstanding all year.
The Hawkeyes are very, very good in the third phase as this program puts a huge emphasis on winning the field position battle.
Keys to Victory
- In many ways, these teams are the same. Both Iowa and Kentucky play a conservative brand of football that shrinks the game and protects their defense. That will be even more true with a pair of freshmen playing quarterback. Taking care of the football will be vital in this game. The team that wins the takeaway battle (Iowa is +4 and Kentucky is -1 in turnover margin) should have the advantage.
- Speaking of similar styles, both teams will likely be very run-heavy on Saturday afternoon. Therefore, the team that runs the ball the best will be able to control the game. Can one side or the other create efficient and/or explosive runs? If they do they should feel very good about their chances.
- Speaking of that, Kentucky’s defense slid a bit on run defense to end the season. Vanderbilt rushed for 264 yards on 6.0 yards per rush, Georgia rushed for 247 yards on 5.4 yards per rush, and Louisville rushed 164 yards on 4.4 yards per rush in November. If that doesn’t improve, Kaleb Johnson could have a big day and that would mean bad things for Kentucky.
- On paper, Iowa seems to have the better defense and kicking game. The Hawkeyes have a more proven commodity at tailback. The one major advantage the Wildcats have is their explosiveness. While splash plays have been hit-and-miss this season, Barion Brown, Dane Key, and Tayvion Robinson have all produced explosive receptions this year. JuTahn McClain also has a bit more speed than Chris Rodriguez. If Kentucky is going to win the game, the offense will likely need to produce a couple of huge chunk plays to set up some easy scores.
- Bowl games get weird. Expect the unexpected.
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