Scouting Report: Mississippi State Bulldogs

The crushing loss to Florida is still fresh on everyone’s mind, but the season rolls on like a freight train coming downhill. Mark Stoops and his squad make the trip to Starkville for the fourth time and the hope is that he can finally get a victory in Davis Wade Stadium.

Nuts and Bolts

Before Dan Mullen arrived in Starkville, the Mississippi State Bulldogs were the kings of mediocrity in the SEC West. Former Washington State, Pittsburgh, and Texas A&M head coach Jackie Sherrill took over the program in 1991 and he followed six coaches who all had career losing records at the school. Despite an SEC West title and four AP Top 25 finishes, Sherrill would finish with just a .5oo record after 13 seasons.

Sylvester Croom stepped in the following year to become the first African-American head football coach in SEC history. The NFL assistant and former Alabama center went just 21-38 in five seasons with just one bowl appearance. After 2008, State convinced Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen to make the move to Starkville.

The Urban Meyer disciple quickly became the best coach in program history by recording 69 wins in nine seasons with three AP Top 25 finishes. Mullen had the Bulldogs in the national title hunt in 2014 and appeared to have another contender returning in 2018 before he left after the 2017 season. His presence still looms large in Starkville.

Newly appointed athletic director John Cohen quickly hired Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead once the job opened despite no ties to the south. Moorhead has surprised some on the recruiting trail, but his offenses have not been what they were cracked up to be through 16 games.

At Penn State, Moorhead had the No. 6 scoring offense in FBS in 2017 thanks to the work done by Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. The heavy RPO scheme took the Big Ten by storm his two seasons in State College and Moorhead quickly became a huge hit.

"The transition to Joe Moorhead from Dan Mullen is going to be about as seamless as you can possibly get. That offense is good enough to put the fear of God into anybody it plays" – @BarrettSallee pic.twitter.com/9zLeSUOY3C

— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) April 23, 2018

With a roster loaded with legit NFL defensive talent at each level and an experienced quarterback, many thought Mississippi State could challenge Alabama for the SEC West last season. That was not the case.

On their way to an 8-5 season, the Bulldogs were upset three separate times and most notably lost to Dan Mullen in his return trip to Starkville. State put up a combined three points against Alabama and LSU on their way to finishing unranked after being upset by Iowa in the Outback Bowl. Despite a contract extension, there is some pressure on the former Fordham head coach this season.

Joe Moorhead has agreed to a four-year contract extension through the 2022 season.#HailState🐶

— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) May 21, 2019

This will be the 47th meeting in the series with the teams tied up at 23 games apiece. Kentucky has won two of the last three, but before that lost seven in a row. UK hasn’t won in Starkville since 2008.

Out in the desert, Mississippi State is a 6-point favorite with a total of 48.5. That’s a projected final score of around 27-21. UK is 3-0 against the spread this season with the over hitting each time. Mississippi State is 1-2 against the number with the over hitting each outing. The Bulldogs have been the betting favorite in the series every year since Mark Stoops arrived. The last time UK was favored was in Dan Mullen’s first season a decade ago.

Offensive Breakdown

It was clear that Joe Moorhead’s offense just didn’t work for Nick Fitzgerald last season. Despite dual-threat quarterback Keytaon Thompson having a bunch of talent blended with experience, the second-year head coach decided to go with something more reliable.

Tommy Stevens decided to grad transfer from Penn State after it became clear that Sean Clifford was going to win the QB1 job. It did not take long for him to pledge to Mississippi State. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound righty got off to a fast start throwing for two scores and averaging 7.9 yards per attempt in the season opening win over Louisiana. However, Stevens injured his shoulder the next week against Southern Miss and did not look like himself against Kansas State.

The Indianapolis native has been pulled in consecutive games and only completed 7 of his 15 passes last week. The grad transfer is clearly dealing with a shoulder issue and we’re not sure if he’ll be ready to play a full 60 minutes despite being listed as day-to-day. A true freshman has been used off the bench.

Garrett Shrader was a top-250 prospect and Moorhead’s first quarterback recruit. The plan was to redshirt the 6-foot-4, 220-pound freshman but an injury to Stevens and Keytaon Thompson’s unknown status has forced him into early action. Through two halves of football, Shrader has been the SEC’s least accurate passer.

The dual-threat is completing just 47.8 percent of his passes with a woeful 5.3 yards per attempt average. State could be in trouble if they have to turn to him, but he can do damage on the ground and isn’t afraid to put his body on the line.

HE WENT AIRBORNE 🚁 pic.twitter.com/I0eLNsn7gh

— ESPN (@espn) September 14, 2019

This offense wants to toss the ball around the yard, but it is clear that State is dealing with some significant quarterback issues at the moment. The Bulldogs likely need to lean on the run, but that is not a bad thing when you have Kylin Hill to ride.

The Mississippi native was a huge recruiting win for Dan Mullen and he currently leads the SEC in rushing. Hill ranks third in the FBS in rush yards (431) and his 21.7 carries per game rank sixth. He has been a workhorse despite suffering an ankle injury against Southern Miss. Expect a heavy workload from No. 8 on Saturday because the other two backs on the depth chart have a combined 17 carries through three games.

The Mississippi State receivers really struggled last season and they might have had the worst receiving corps in the SEC in 2018. Most of those guys return, but this group still has a long way to go. Osirus Mitchell is turning into the go-to option.

The former low three-star prospect leads the team in receptions (13) and is putting up 16 yards per grab with three touchdowns. He has a next level frame (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) and will be a tough cover.

Outside of Mitchell, the Dogs are really scrambling. Junior college transfer Stephen Guidry was a big time recruit who just hasn’t panned out. Redshirt senior Deddrick Thomas operates out of the slot, but the long-time reserve has been inefficient. Farrod Green is more of a blocker than pass catcher at tight end. Big things were expected from Kansas State grad transfer Isaiah Zuber, but he has been a disappointment through three games.

Joe Moorhead is 16 games in and he’s still desperately searching for good, consistent wide receiver play.

In the trenches, redshirt senior Darryl Williams returns and slides down to center after starting at left guard. He figures to be one of the top centers taken in the upcoming NFL Draft. He wasn’t the only one who shifted around this offseason. Stewart Reese move from right tackle to right guard while Greg Eiland went from left tackle to right tackle. State has a lot of experience in this group.

Defensive Breakdown

Bob Shoop got his first FBS defensive coordinator gig when James Franklin was hired at Vanderbilt and since then he’s been running defenses. Shoop has worked at Vandy, Penn State, Tennessee and Mississippi State with only one of his defenses finishing outside the top-50. Four of his units have finished in the top-20 with last year’s group taking home the crown as the top defense in FBS. Despite all that, Eddie Gran has had a ton of success against him.

In three meetings with Gran calling plays, Kentucky is putting up 31 points per game and 6.6 yards per play. Despite never passing for more than 200 yards in a single game, UK is still averaging seven yards per rush attempt. For some reason, Gran has had Shoop’s number.

Lost off last year’s defense were three first-round picks and they’ve been dearly missed. Most notably Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat on the line. Those two were unblockable and this year State is really missing the havoc they created. So far the defensive line has only produced 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack despite having a two-deep littered with former blue-chip recruits. This is the biggest reason Bob Shoop’s defense ranks 11th or worse in the SEC in yards per play, yards per pass, scoring, and rushing.

At the second level, Erroll Thompson was a preseason All-SEC selection and is one of the finer Mike linebackers in college football. He’s second on the team in tackles and this will likely be the redshirt junior’s final season in college football. Kentucky better get him blocked when they run inside zone.

Former Kentucky target Brian Cole II made a pitstop at East Mississippi Community College after transferring from Michigan before landing in the Starkville. The senior plays the Star position (nickel) for the Bulldogs and has been very good this season. He leads the team in sacks and causes the most havoc of any individual player.

Leading tackler Jaquarius Landrews lines up at strong safety, but corner Cameron Dantzler is the name to know.

The junior missed last week’s game against Kansas State, but will be back this week. The Louisiana native was a second-team All-SEC member last season and look for him to be the guy State puts on Ahmad Wagner more often than not.

Special Teams Breakdown

Currently the Bulldogs rank 108th in the SP+ rankings thanks to some iffy play all around the board.

Kansas State recorded a kickoff return touchdown and gained 44 yards on punt returns last week. Kickoff specialist Scott Goodman has a touchback rate of just 42 percent. The Bulldogs have hit just 3-of-5 field goals and are averaging just 17.9 yards per kick return.

Malik Dear has been a highlight in the punt return department and that’s about the only good thing going for their special teams.

Keys to Victory

• Despite Kylin Hill doing his thing on the ground, State has struggled to protect the passer. The offense currently has a sack rate of nine percent and that is no bueno. UK’s defense has a sack rate of 6.5 percent and that has a chance to bump up on Saturday.
• It’s going to be a hot afternoon in Starkville and depth will be a question mark for both teams. Due to last week’s targeting penalty, T.J. Carter will miss the first half and Phil Hoskins is currently listed as questionable. That means Kordell Looney will be getting his first career start. UK could be calling on youngsters Abule Abadi-Fitzgerald,  Davoan Hawkins, and Qua Mahone to play early. They need to be up to the challenge to slow down the run.
• In just about every statistical category, Mississippi State’s defense ranks towards the bottom of the SEC except one. The Bulldogs have been excellent in forcing takeaways having created 10 turnovers in just three games. That leads the SEC and ranks second nationally. Ball security has been an issue for Kentucky and if they don’t get it fixed it could cost them another close game.

Unexpected Suspensions

Just a week before Mississippi State kicked off the season, the school reached an agreement on a punishment with the NCAA due to a tutor taking exams and doing assignments for student-athletes. However, due to a government law, the names of the players are not allowed to be identified. After three games, we have a good idea who those players are.

Starting defensive tackle Lee Autry played against Southern Miss, but missed the two other games. Starting Will linebacker Willie Gay Jr. has missed all three games. These are the most prominent players that seemed to be tied to the suspensions, but there are others such as backup safety Marcus Murphy and former blue-chip receiver Devonta Jason.

The school is allowed to stagger these suspensions so it’s not a guarantee that these players will miss Saturday’s game. Add this in with the starting placekicker being suspended the first game for a DUI arrest and it has been quite the roster balancing act.

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