What Returning Production Tells Us About Kentucky's 2023 Opponents

The longest offseason of any sport is at a standstill, but not a complete standstill. Bill Connelly, ESPN’s preeminent college football number cruncher, has been spending extra time on spreadsheets to create some much-needed content. The curator of SP+ has released one piece of the formula, returning production.

For years college football fans quantified returning production by counting returning starters. What if those starters did absolutely nothing the year before? The returning production figure is based purely on outputs from the prior year in the form of yards, touchdowns, tackles, turnovers etc. Some positions matter more than others in this equation.

Offensive Weights

• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 24% of the overall number
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 23%
• Percent of returning OL snaps: 47%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%

Defensive Weights

• Percent of returning tackles: 70%
• Percent of returning passes defensed: 14%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 12%
• Percent of returning sacks: 4%

Transfers

• For transfers from one FBS school to another, data from the previous school is plugged directly into the equation. Ray Davis‘ 1,000 yards at Vanderbilt are included, but Devin Leary‘s injury limited his numbers.

Now that you know the formula, you probably think the Wildcats fare well. Well, not entirely. Kentucky ranks No. 73 overall with 63% returning production. The Cats are No. 48 on offense (71%) and No. 86 on defense (55%).

Even though there are a ton of talented players back on Brad White’s defense, five of UK’s top ten tacklers are departing, and that accounts for 70% of the equation. Offensively, Leary and Marques Cox‘s injuries limit the Cats from ranking higher in returning production.

Returning Production of Kentucky 2023 Opponents

If you think Kentucky’s returning production is bad, the Cats only have two opponents in 2023 ranked higher than the Wildcats.

Missouri on the Rise?

The Tigers have been a punching bag for the Cats throughout Mark Stoops’ tenure. Kentucky has won seven of eight in the series. This year that win at Kroger Field might not come as easily.

Eliah Drinkwitz has gone 5-5, 6-7 and 6-7 in his three seasons in Columbia. Almost perfectly mediocre. But he signed a stellar recruiting class in 2022, and he saved his best recruiting work of 2023 for his veterans.

Quite a few key players from a strong defense (19th in defensive SP+) elected to stay in town for the coming fall, and the offensive line returns mostly intact, too. If Drinkwitz can finally figure out the quarterback position — 2022 starter Brady Cook returns, along with two recent blue-chippers (redshirt freshman Sam Horn and Miami transfer Jake Garcia) — the Tigers might have everything else they need for a nice step forward in 2023.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Can Kentucky Finally Win in Starkville?

As successful as Stoops has been against Missouri, he’s been equally as bad on the road against SEC West opponents. He’s never won a cross-divisional game on the road and that includes a trip every other year to Davis Wade Stadium. The time might be right for much-needed November win in Starkville. Not only did they lose almost everyone on Zach Arnett’s tricky 3-3-5 defense, Will Rogers must learn to operate in a new offense with a former App. State offensive coordinator.

A Good Time to Catch Bama

It’s never ideal to see Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide on the schedule, but this year’s task is not so daunting. They’re losing two of the top five players in next year’s draft, Bryce Young and Will Anderson, and he’s replacing coordinators on both sides of the line of scrimmage with Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele. According to Connelly, Alabama is the most likely team to regress in college football, ranked No. 125 in returning production. Unfortunately, this game falls in November, so Alabama should have it figured out by then, but with the game at Kroger Field, I’m telling you there’s a chance.

Three Quick-Hitters on Returning Production

1. Vanderbilt ended the season with a ton of momentum, in part thanks to Kentucky’s poor play at Kroger Field. This could be a breakthrough season for Clark Lea, but Kentucky should be hungry for revenge in their first significant game of the 2023 season.

2. South Carolina has recruited well, and like Vanderbilt, ended the season with a bang by upsetting Tennessee and Clemson. Still, as well documented by 11 Personnel, they don’t have as much buzz this offseason thanks to a lackluster offensive coordinator hire and multiple high profile departures through the transfer portal.

3. Once a CFB Playoff contender, Tennessee ended the season with whimper. Most importantly, Josh Heupel will have to break in a new quarterback. Life after Hendon Hooker may not be as pleasant as some Vol fans believe.

I’m sure I’m the only one who cares Hendon Hooker finished below the SEC average back-to-back seasons in Accuracy% and Uncatchable% when targeting dudes beyond 10 yards downfield (while being the only person with a +50% play action rate on such throws in that time)

— Clark Brooks (@SEC_StatCat) February 7, 2023