Analyzing LSU's first opponents in NCAA Tournament

LSU begins its run at a repeat Friday evening at 3 p.m. in the PMAC against Rice in a game to set the tone for the tournament. With 12 days off between the SEC title game and the start of this tournament, LSU will be rested and ready to go as a 3-seed in their region. 

With a 3-seed, the Tigers get to host the first two games in the tournament and will look to get to the Sweet 16 once again. Here’s everything to know about the teams coming to Baton Rouge and my predictions for the first two games this weekend.

14. Rice

Record: 19-14, 9-9 in AAC

Best Player: Malia Fisher (6-foot-2, 13.1 ppg, 7 rpg)

Team strength: Defending the 3-point line (18th in 3-point attempt rate defense)

Weakness: Inside scoring (209th in 2-point percentage)

Notable results: L @ TCU 67-42, L @ Stephen F Austin 67-56, L @ Gonzaga 80-72

Rice had an incredibly mediocre season in the AAC, going .500 and finishing 10th before making a run to win the conference championship. It was Rice’s first four game winning streak of the season. The Owls are physical enough for mid-major teams, in the top third of the country in rebounding rate and steal rate, but are in the bottom third in foul rate and block rate. Malia Fisher and Destiny Jackson are the top two players here. With only two seniors, they’re a year ahead of schedule, but Lindsey Edmonds has this program on the rise in the AAC.

6. Louisville

Record: 24-9, 12-6 in AAC

Best Player: Kiki Jefferson (6-foot-1 SR G/W, 12.5 ppg, 46.6 fg%)

Team strength: Offensive rebounding (19th in off rebound rate)

Weakness: 2-point defense (262nd in 2P% defense)

Notable results: W @ Ole Miss 64-58, L @ UConn 86-62, L @ NC State 77-67, L vs. VA Tech 86-70, L @ Notre Dame 74-58, L vs. Notre Dame 77-68.

Louisville is the most dangerous team for LSU in this first weekend, as the Cardinals play through two graduate transfer senior guards in Sydney Taylor and Kiki Jefferson, two volume shooters. Jada Curry, another transfer guard fits that mold as well off the bench. The offense is built around their guards, but they do an excellent job of offensive rebounding as a team. Louisville doesn’t shoot a ton of 3-pointers, with only four players who have shot more than 24 this season, but it’s a balanced offense paired with an average defense that hopes it can score enough to win some games.

11. Middle Tennessee

Record: 29-4, 16-0 in C-USA

Best Player: Savannah Wheeler (5-foot-6 SR G, 17.3 ppg, 5.1 apg, 37.7 3p%)

Team strength: Balanced offense (26th in effective fg%)

Weakness: 3-point defense (296th in opponent 3-point rate)

Notable results: L vs. Princeton 65-60, L vs. Michigan 63-49, W vs. Tennessee 73-62, W vs. Stephen F. Austin 72-47, W @ Houston 70-45.

Middle Tennessee has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country for the past decade and it has continued this year as the Blue Raiders have rolled through Conference USA and are a more-than-deserving 11-seed. Middle Tennessee plays one of the slowest tempos in the country and has an elite 2-point defense that makes opponents uncomfortable, opening up good looks for the offense and 3-point shots. MTSU also has 6-foot-6 Russian Anastasiia Boldyreva who averages nearly 15 points, 8.5 rebounds, and three blocks per game. With the 30th highest 3-point rate and an elite percentage at 35 percent, Middle Tennessee is a dangerous double-digit seed to watch in Baton Rouge.

Predictions

LSU 91, Rice 52

The Tigers should have no problems with the Owls in this one. Rice neither has the size nor the shooting to really bother the Tigers. It was a great tournament run for the Owls, but there’s nothing here that scares me if I’m LSU. The improved defense should be able to stifle the Owls and get them into the second round with ease.

Middle Tennessee 67, Louisville 64

The Blue Raiders are perfectly equipped to take down Louisville, with stifling defense and a great ability to slow down opposing guards. It’s been a mixed bag for the Blue Raiders against quality competition, but with this being a neutral site, I think that favors Middle Tennessee. Also, I’m not sure Louisville has the perimeter defense to really slow down Savannah Wheeler. The Cardinals will have to have their volume shooters hitting on all cylinders, but I’m not sure they’re able to be efficient.

Second round: LSU 75, Middle Tennessee 62

The Tigers want to run, the Blue Raiders want to slow it down, but the variety of LSU’s offense will be able to create good looks and this would be a great game for the Tigers’ guards to get loose. MTSU does not force a lot of turnovers and allows teams to shoot a ton of 3-pointers. Im interested to see LSU against Boldyreva, who at 6-foot-6 can pose problems for the Tigers, but ultimately LSU’s physicality and balance will win out.